thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMETAReports

META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $688.55EOD only
Max Pain
$640.00
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.42
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-48.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.48
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Event timestamp: 2026-04-28 13:30 ET (post-close). Sensitivity: beat scenario → asymmetric upside (median +3–6%, tail +10%); miss/guidance cut → downside -6–12% with IV spike. Pinning into print likely; guidance-driven surprises produce larger moves than EPS beats.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: High alignment of flow/GEX, pinning dynamics and spot near MP and timestamp sensitivity
Most important: Pinning gamma and concentrated call flow near 670–690 driving asymmetric upside pressure; outcomes highly sensitive to guidance language
📌Earnings time: 2026-04-28 13:30 ET — guidance sensitivity > EPS delta
⚠️Bid/ask depth limited at 670–680 (500–2,500 contracts) — liquidity risk on gaps
🔁Concentrated call flow + gamma positions increase upside pin probability into print

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,067 (25.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (9 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-22 (2d): ±$13.25 (2.0%)
  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$19.95 (3.0%)
  • 2026-04-27 (7d): ±$23.25 (3.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV rich vs 1w; very steep front-end skew into earnings with calls expensive at 670–690

Crush estimate: Moderate-to-large crush: front-week IV -30% to -55% on clean beat, but can remain elevated or spike +40% on negative guidance

Skew: Call-skew concentrated 670–690; puts heavier lower but less steep between 620–650

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Past 8 events: realized move ~model move or slightly below; avg absolute move ~4.5% vs expected ~5.0%

Directional bias: Slight bullish tilt driven by 68% beat rate historically, but guidance sensitivity creates asymmetric tail risk

Key Levels

1$500.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $657.66/$684.16; 1w $647.66/$694.16
3Max pain pins: $670 (2026-04-20); $660 (2026-04-22); $628 (2026-04-24)

Flow Highlights

Large call prints concentrated 672.5–687.5 expiries

Dealer delta sell pressure supports pin near 670–690; approximate aggregated gamma ~1.1–1.8% spot per $1 move at those strikes

Heavy put OI concentration ~25% below spot (620–650) with lower gamma

Gamma flip around 500 shares equivalent; downside cushioned until a guidance-triggered gap

Strategies

Short-funded bull-call spread (672.5/680)
Buy 2026-05-01 $672.50/$680.00 call spread
Debit: $3.17-$3.88
Max loss: $3.88
Max gain: $3.62
BE: $676.38
Trigger: Trim or close if stock >680 pre-close or if front-week IV rallies >20%; cut if price falls below 670. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Leverages slight bullish tilt and monetizes rich call skew near 670–690.
Outperforms: Buy nearer-ATM call, sell expensive call to lower debit while capturing upside into pin zone.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Wider long strangle (660P / 680C)
Buy 2026-05-01 $660.00 put + buy $680.00 call
Debit: $37.10-$45.35
Max loss: $45.35
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 614.65 / 725.35
Trigger: Scale out into move; close into IV crush or if move stalls inside strikes post-print.
Cheaper than straddle, captures larger tails while accounting for concentrated call flow.
Outperforms: Wider strikes reduce premium yet profit from move beyond skew-concentrated region.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Front-week straddle (675)
Buy 2026-05-01 $675.00 put + buy $675.00 call
Debit: $45.72-$55.88
Max loss: $55.88
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 619.12 / 730.88
Trigger: Require large move to justify cost; plan exits pre-crush or hedge with sell-side calls on IV pop.
Max symmetric exposure but highest premium and biggest crush risk.
Outperforms: Pure volatility play expecting large print-driven move or post-print IV spike.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Strike-level liquidity thin: bid/ask depth ~500–2,500 contracts at 670/675/680 — can widen rapidly
!Pin-fail risk if move exceeds local gamma capacity (~1.5–2.5% intraday)
!IV spike risk on negative guidance or big miss; post-print bid/ask widening may amplify moves

What to Watch

?Spot vs max-pain 670–690 into 13:30 ET print
?Front-week IV and skew shifts pre/post-print (watch 670–690 implied moves)
?Bid/ask depth and dealer delta unwind at 670/675/680 — watch rapid drop in depth
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.