Earnings Verdict
META earnings far out; flow bullish, IV low, GEX pinning near $605
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Call OI wall $700-$900; put floor $500; gamma flip $600
⚠️Large 0DTE $620 call vol suggests aggressive positioning
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$600.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,909 (2.3% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-29 (75 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-18 (3d): ±$11.07 (1.8%)
- 2026-05-20 (5d): ±$17.95 (2.9%)
- 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$22.32 (3.6%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Flat, low IV ~8-9% for weekly expirations
Crush estimate: Minimal, far from event
Skew: Skew neutral
Historical Context
Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Weekly moves 1.8-3.6% non-earnings
Directional bias: Bullish on flow and GEX
Key Levels
1$600.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $603.15/$625.30; 1w $596.28/$632.18
3Max pain pins: $605 (2026-05-15); $610 (2026-05-18); $605 (2026-05-20)
Flow Highlights
Massive 5/15 $620 call volume 54,907 vs OI 6,596
Aggressive near-expiry call buying, likely closing/liquidation
Put/Call volume ratio 0.46
Strong call bias confirming bullish flow
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Gamma flip risk at $600 (put OI concentration)
!Max pain pin $605-$610 for weekly expiration
What to Watch
?Spot holding above $605 MP
?Call wall resistance $700-$900