thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMETAReports

META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $635.29EOD only
Max Pain
$615.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.85
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-20.29
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
44
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.44
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 28, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 28, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Bullish tilt into earnings with pinning around 685–695; balance of call flow and call OI walls suggests upside containment near 700–750.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: flow + GEX alignment; spot distance offsets base
Most important: Large call OI and concentrated short-dated call flow near 685–690 likely to pin into expiry.
📌Pinning concentrated at 685–695 from heavy call flow
⚠️Max-pain/pinning centered ≈690; monitor spot distance to that level
📈Historical beat rate 75% supports mild bullish bias

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,104 (27.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (12 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-20 (3d): ±$6.43 (0.9%)
  • 2026-04-22 (5d): ±$10.07 (1.5%)
  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$12.35 (1.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV muted vs 3–7d elevated for post-earnings; short-dated IV depressed into expiry.

Crush estimate: Moderate (IV down 25–40% post release on realized move history).

Skew: Call-heavy skew into 685–750; put support below 635 creates asymmetric upside cap.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Actual moves often ≤ expected; 75% beat rate.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish historically on beats; market positioning favors pinning around 685–695.

Key Levels

1$500.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $682.12/$694.97; 1w $678.47/$698.62
3Max pain pins: $615 (2026-04-17); $640 (2026-04-20); $645 (2026-04-22)

Flow Highlights

Heavy short-dated call prints at 685–690 (large volume + OI).

Dealer negative gamma and delta supply increases pinning pressure.

Large put OI concentration below 635.

Downside protected by put floor; reduces tail downside risk.

Strategies

Call Diagonal (carry vs term-structure)
Sell 2026-04-24 $707.50 call / buy 2026-05-15 $705.00 call
Debit: $18.40-$22.49
Max loss: $22.49
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Trim or roll short leg inward if spot nears 690–705; close or convert if IV spikes or post-earnings drift invalidates view.
Exploits depressed front-week IV vs richer back-month IV to sell short-dated call premium while keeping long tail upside exposure.
Outperforms: Sell 4/24 707.5 call, buy 5/15 705 call to collect time decay and benefit if pinning/limited upside keeps short leg OTM; long month caps gap risk and captures post-earnings repricing.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Defined Iron Condor (pin-focused income)
Sell 2026-05-01 $670.00/$635.00 put wing and $700.00/$745.00 call wing
Credit: $21.28-$26.01
Max loss: $18.99
Max gain: $26.01
BE: 643.99 / 726.01
Trigger: Enter near top of entry range, tighten or hedge if spot drifts toward 685–695; close before large IV swings or into expiry.
Favored if pinning near 685–695 holds and IV compresses; defined wings limit tail risk vs concentrated call OI.
Outperforms: Sell 5/01 670/635 put wing and 700/745 call wing to collect front-week premium anticipating limited realized move and IV crush.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Pin risk near 685–695 can compress realized move
!Sudden news or macro spike can lift IV beyond crush estimates
!High net premium and concentrated call OI create gamma flip risk if spot falls

What to Watch

?Short-dated call OI and roll activity at 685–695
?Spot drift toward pin/max-pain zone (≈690) pre-earnings
?Intraday IV skew shifts and front-week IV reprice
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.