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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $605.06EOD only
Max Pain
$605.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.50
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-0.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
META Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~4/29 (inferred from term structure kink). IV is elevated for the 5/01 expiration (45.9%), creating a viable IV crush play. Historical data shows a strong beat rate and consistent upside moves, favoring directional long calls or defined-risk bullish spreads over pure volatility selling.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 strong historical beat rate & directional bias; +0 elevated IV for earnings expiration
Most important: Term structure shows a clear IV kink at 5/01, confirming the earnings window. Historical EPS beat rate is 75% with a strong directional bias higher.
📅Earnings date inferred as ~4/29 from IV kink at 5/01 expiration (31 DTE). Confirm via company IR.
📊Historical EPS beat rate is strong (75%), but the one miss in Q3 2025 was severe. Do not ignore tail risk.
🧱Key OI/premium walls at $590P and $600C likely act as magnets/pivots around earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 47%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$61.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-133.7M, P/C 0.91)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 2.6% (spot $572.13 vs MP $558)
Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low gamma flip at $5 due to massive put OI wall; negligible for near-term spot dynamics. Focus on OI walls at $600 and $590.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (29 days)inferred

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$61.30 (10.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 expiration (45.9% IV) vs 38.4% on 4/24 and 44.6% on 5/08. Confirms earnings priced for that weekly cycle.

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~37-38% range.

Skew: Mixed flow: heavy net premium outflow at $590P and $770P, but large net inflow at $600C and $610C. P/C volume ratio of 0.91 suggests balanced fear/greed.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A - EM data not provided for past quarters.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters gapped up post-earnings (12/31/25, 6/30/25, 3/31/25). One significant miss on 9/30/25.

Key Levels

1$590 (major put OI/premium wall)
2$600 (major call OI/premium wall)
3EM: $510 - $632.5
4Max Pain ~$557.5 (supportive below spot)

Flow Highlights

Massive $590 Put: Net $-30.2M premium outflow. $600 Call: Net $28.2M premium inflow.

Institutional hedging at $590 (support) and bullish betting at $600 (resistance). Defines a likely earnings range.

Unusual 4/01 Put activity at $577.50-$580 (40k+ volume vs low OI). IV 0-6.4%.

Likely closing of existing positions or very short-dated hedging, not a new earnings bet.

Strategies

Bull Put Spread (Defined Risk Directional)
Sell $540 Put / Buy $510 Put 5/01
Credit: $4.50-$6.00
Max loss: $25.50
Max gain: $4.50
BE: $535.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings if spot holds above $570.
Leverages historical upside bias and elevated IV. Strikes are below the expected move lower bound ($510) and key $590/$557.5 support levels, providing a buffer.
Outperforms: Stock is flat or rises post-earnings (historical bias). IV crush provides additional edge.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $540, especially on a surprise miss.
Long Call Diagonal (Volatility & Directional)
Buy $600 Call 5/01 / Sell $620 Call 4/24
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Capped
BE: Varies; ~$605 by 4/24
Trigger: Enter 10-14 days before earnings.
Targets a breakout above the $600 call wall. Selling the nearer-dated call helps finance the long earnings-dated call and mitigates IV crush on the position.
Outperforms: Stock grinds higher into earnings and IV expands further, or rallies sharply post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock falls or stays flat; suffers from IV crush on long leg.
Iron Condor (Pure Premium Sale)
Sell $540 Put / Buy $510 Put // Sell $630 Call / Buy $660 Call 5/01
Credit: $8.00-$10.00
Max loss: $22.00
Max gain: $8.00
BE: 548 - 632
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings.
Capitalizes on elevated IV and expected crush. Wide wings relative to EM provide a margin of safety. Asymmetric risk given bullish history.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a ~±7% range ($548-$632), well inside the EM bounds.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes, particularly below $540 given historical upside bias makes the put side riskier.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 10.7% expected move is significant ($61). A repeat of the Q3 2025 surprise miss could cause a gap down through key supports.
!IV Crush: Estimated 8-10 vol point drop will punish long volatility positions entered at elevated IV.
!Liquidity: Excellent (2.5M+ OI). No issues trading standard strikes.
!Sizing: Size condors/spreads for max loss given the binary event. Avoid over-leverage on defined-risk plays.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on 5/01 expiration as date approaches
?Spot price action relative to $590/$600 OI walls
?Any unusual OTM call buying above $630 for breakout clues
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.