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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $290.43EOD only

Max Pain

$289.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.92

1.0% from close

Price Gap

-1.43

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.65

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

IWM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term upside magnet into the $266.51–$271.26 expected-move band and max-pain around $262; Confidence: 8.5/10 (pre-computed). Primary supports: concentrated positive GEX (+$374.9M) clustered at $268–$270, heavy net call premium at $267/$270, and falling max-pain trend that still sits below spot; conflict: MP ($262) and gamma flip near $245 create asymmetric downside if pin breaks.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5 maintained: +GEX pinning (+$374.9M) and net premium +$78.6M support pin thesis; VIX 18.36 reduces tail risk but MP below spot is a latent downside; no imminent catalyst missing from pre-computed data.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $268/$269/$270 and call-heavy premium at $267/$270; near-term put clusters sit below $258 supporting short-premium between $266–$271.
Conflicts: Max pain $262–$260 trend and gamma flip ~ $245 mean a large break would surprise the pin; P/C OI 2.52 shows structural put demand below spot.

📌GEX pin cluster +$34.7M at $269 and +$28.6M at $270 creating a tight pin magnet 0.1–0.5% from spot

📈Top premium flow strongly call-biased at $267/$270/$275 (net call premium >$12M per strike) — intraday buying

⚠️Max pain falling ($262→$250 across expiries) implies medium-term mean lower if pin fails

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal — Avg IV 23.5% vs VIX 18.36; short-term ATM IV spikes 14–21% for next week but overall term structure is flat-to-normal, enabling premium-selling without extreme IV tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — large positive GEX (+$374.9M) concentrated at $268–$270 will create dealer delta-support near spot and mean-reversion behavior while inside EM bounds.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium +$78.6M and P/C volume 1.22 show net bullish orderflow (call-heavy at $267/$270) but P/C OI 2.52 indicates structural put accumulation lower down.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $268.72 sits above near max pain ($262–$260) so dealers are net short gamma near spot and using concentrated calls to pin; this creates upside magnet but asymmetric downside if MP pulls price down.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the near expirations and MP trend is slowly falling across many expirations (23 expiries), so prefer 30–45 DTE core trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$266.51$270.93

Sustained prints at $267–$269 and GEX +$34.7M at $269 will hold price; decisive close below $266.51 would loosen pin.

Next 1 week

$266.19$271.26

Max-pain $262 below the band; a move above $271.26 requires fresh call buying or positive macro flow.

Next 2 weeks

$258.42$279.03

2-week bounds $258.42–$279.03—break below $266 then $260/$258 OI clusters accelerate downside toward put floor $170–$250.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $262 (2026-04-14); $262 (2026-04-15); $260 (2026-04-16)

EM guardrails: 2d $266.51/$270.93; 1w $266.19/$271.26

Support: $266.00 · $263.00 · $262.00

Resistance: $270.00 · $273.00 · $275.00

Gamma flip: ~$245.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 108,794 (8.8% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor $170–$250 provides long-term downside cushion; large call OI/wings above $300 cap marginal upside rallies for multi-month positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+374.9M

DEX: +174.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$245 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 108,794 (8.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $268/$269/$270 (GEX +$34.7M, +$28.6M, +$21.9M) → dealers will buy on dips and sell into strength inside band; if spot falls ~2% (~$263) dealer hedges flip from buying to reduced support and delta selling accelerates; if spot rises ~2% (~$274) dealers add negative delta by selling calls, limiting further upside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 23.5% vs VIX 18.36 — options slightly rich vs realized but not extreme; short-dated IV elevated (1–3d ATM 14–19%) near expiries.

Term structure: Flat-to-slightly-steep in the 10–45d window (ATM ~21% at 10d → ~22.3% at 45d) — supports selling near-term premium and buying 30–45d protection/diagonals.

Skew: Notable cheapness in 30–45d vol relative to front-week (45d ATM ~22.3% vs 7d ~19.2%) — candidate for buying 30–45d protection and selling nearer-term legs (regular calendar/diagonal).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $78.6M (call-biased) with heavy premium at $267/$270; P/C vol 1.22 indicates buying interest in calls intraday.

Directional prints: 6.4 put 267 OTM 4/14 — Huge volume (70,346) into $267 puts 4/14 with OI 216 — likely quick buy-to-open/IV-limited hedges or gamma trades; short-dated and inconsistent with longer-dated put accumulation. 1.6 call 269 OTM 4/14 — 100,332 vol into $269 calls 4/14 OI 1,182 — aggressive intraday call buying supporting pin; could be legitimized market-maker flow (buying calls, selling stock delta).

Unusual: 15.9 put 267 OTM 4/15 — 15,281 vol vs OI 131 into 4/15 $267 puts — short-dated hedging interest that underwrites pin; interpret both as bought protection or structured unwind, more consistent with call-biased flow (buying calls, hedging with near puts).

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $245 would remove dealer support and accelerate downside liquidity spirals

!Max-pain series below spot ($262→$250) can pull price lower across expiries if call demand wanes

!Front-week expiries (4/14–4/17) concentrate flow — expiry pin/unwind risk intraday

!Macro risk: rapid VIX reversion >25 would make short-premium trades dangerous

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares IWM at market $268.72	Asymmetric downside to $245 gamma flip; capital intensive.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares IWM at market (tactical)	High carrying gamma and pining dealers; vulnerable to bounce into GEX clusters.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-04-24 275 call (or 272/275 call ladder)	Capped upside by dealer call selling; loss if stock gaps below $262.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 262/257 put spread	Pin breaks and slide toward $250–$258 increases loss; gamma flip <$245 triggers accelerated losses.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 275 call (directional)	Time decay and limited IV edge; expensive vs calendar alternatives.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 258/252 put spread	Costs if pin holds; payoff if downside accelerates below $266 and $260.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 256/251 put x 275/280 call (wings chosen to EM and OI)	VIX spike or break above $279 / below $251 blows wings; requires active management.
Calendar / diagonal (regular calendar)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 269 call, buy 2026-05-29 269 call (sell higher-IV near-term leg)	Front-week IV moves; needs theta bleed to favor sold near-term leg.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-30 245 call LEAPS diagonal (buy 6/30 245C) and sell near-term calls 272/275 tactically	Long-dated vega exposure and funding cost; protects downside with longer time.

Top Plays

Sell 262/257 put spread (45d-structured-ish)

Sell 2026-05-01 262/257 put spread

Collect premium against strong NTM GEX pin at $268–$270 and max pain $262 while term vol in 17d is ~21.8% (supports selling 17–45d protection); defined risk below concentrated put clusters.

Credit: $0.32-$0.45

Max loss: $4.68

BE: $261.68

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $260 or VIX >25.

Defined-risk premium collectors who accept multi-week exposure

Sell front-week diagonal (regular calendar) at 269

Sell 2026-04-24 269 call, buy 2026-05-29 269 call (sell higher-IV near-term)

Exploits front-week IV skew (4/24 ATM ~21% > 5/29 ATM ~22.3% but front-week absolute IV spikes intra-expiry) — selling near-term premium into concentrated GEX; benefits from pin and theta.

Credit: $0.40-$1.10

Max loss: Variable (requires margin)

BE: Depends on net debit/credit

Mgmt: Roll sold leg up if price > $273 or close at 60% profit; buy back sold leg if VIX >24.

Tactical traders who want short-dated theta with 30–45d hedged upside

45d iron condor (wider wings)

Sell 2026-05-29 256/251 put x 275/280 call iron condor

Leverages positive GEX and EM bounds ($258–$279) to sell balanced premium with 45d theta; wings aligned to OI clusters and EM.

Credit: $0.65-$1.25

Max loss: $4.35

BE: 253.35–276.35

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; tighten or roll if spot < $256 or > $279.

Accounts wanting defined risk income with multi-week horizon

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $266.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 262/257 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $271.26 (close above 1-week EM) on sustained call flow → Sell 2026-05-29 275/280 call wing as part of iron condor

IFIf intraday unusual call prints at $269 with volume >50k within 30m → Initiate sell 2026-04-24 269 call, buy 2026-05-29 269 call calendar (sell front-week leg)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $262 (max pain) and stays 30m → Take off short put spreads and roll short wings down 5–10 strikes or convert to long puts 258/252 bear put spread 4/24

ADJIf VIX >24 while short premium → Buy downside protection 2026-05-01 258 put

Exit Triggers

EXITIf short put spread hits 60–70% of max profit → Close spread to lock profits

EXITIf spot closes below $245 (gamma flip) → Close all short-premium positions and switch to protective long puts

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers' positive GEX pin around $268–$270 supports short-premium and mean-reversion trades over the next 2–6 weeks; invalidation is sustained close below $262 then $245 gamma flip. Top plays: 1) Sell 262/257 put spread 5/01 (defined risk multi-week); 2) Front-week vs 45d calendar at 269 (tactical short-dated theta); 3) 45d iron condor 256/251 x 275/280 (defined-risk income). Each suits different risk profiles: defined-risk sellers for income, calendars for tactical theta, and iron condors for balanced accounts.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.