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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $282.57EOD only

Max Pain

$284.00

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.52

0.9% from close

Price Gap

+1.43

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

IWM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

IWM pins at $283; high GEX vs bearish flow. Neutral-bearish inside $280-285. VIX 17.87 supports range.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5, adj -1 flow, +1 pinning, +1 spot, +1 VIX

Supports: High GEX, spot MP, VIX 17.87
Conflicts: Bearish flow, resist $283

📌Spot at $283 MP, pinning

⚡High GEX $179.5M mean-reversion

🐻Bearish flow caps upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV, VIX 17.87 elevated

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Large GEX +$179.5M, flip $258

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish puts dominate

Spot vs Max Pain

At $283 MP for 5/13

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Event pinning into expiry

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$280.17$285.17

2d range $280-285, resist $283

Next 1 week

$278.01$287.33

1w range $278-287, support $275

Next 2 weeks

$272.34$293.00

2w range $272-293, support $275

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $283 (2026-05-13); $281 (2026-05-14); $274 (2026-05-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $280.17/$285.17; 1w $278.01/$287.33

Support: $275.00 · $266.00 · $264.00

Resistance: $283.00 · $293.00

Gamma flip: ~$258.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,307 (8.7% below spot)

Structural: S:275,266,264; R:283,293; Gamma flip 258; EM 2d [280.17,285.17],1w [278.01,287.33]; MP pins 283,281,274

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+179.5M

DEX: +207.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$258 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,307 (8.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Long gamma +$179.5M, delta +207M, flip 258

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV in line with VIX 17.87, fair

Term structure: Contango front-loaded, weekly expiries

Skew: Put-heavy skew, no arb

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative ~-$28.4M, high put/call ratio (1.94 vol, 2.72 OI), bearish flow.

Directional prints: 6.1 put 281 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 19.8, 73k vol vs 3.7k OI. Likely put buying for protection or closing of short puts; bearish bias. 9 put 280 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 13.9, 74k vol vs 5.4k OI. Similar put activity, adding downside pressure.

Unusual: 6.3 call 282 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 58.6, 86k vol vs 1.5k OI. Extreme ratio; possibly closing by sellers or aggressive buying; ambiguous. 16.3 put 281 OTM 2026-05-14 — Vol/OI 26.4, 16k vol vs 594 OI. Next-day put with high vol, suggests protective buying or hedging. 23.8 call 281 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 20.9, 24k vol vs 1.1k OI. High IV call, possible bullish optimism or short covering.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bearish flow break $283 up

!Gamma flip at $258

!VIX spike disruption

!Max pain shift

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $280.00/$275.00 put wing and $285.00/$290.00 call wing Why now: High GEX and bearish flow suggest pin at $283; low VIX supports selling premium.	Upside breakout above $285 or downside below $280 causes loss; keep wings wide.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $285.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $285.00 call Why now: Bearish flow and neutral-bearish bias; shorting front-month premium benefits from pin action.	Sharp rally above strike 285 leads to loss; requires monitoring of vol.
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $277.00/$272.00 put spread Why now: Bearish flow and high put/call ratio align with downside protection. Spread caps cost and risk.	Upside break above 285 or VIX spike could cause loss.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $290.00/$296.00 call spread Why now: Bearish flow and high put activity suggest limited upside. Credit spread reduces margin.	Sharp rally above short strike results in max loss.

Top Plays

Pin Play Iron Condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $280.00/$275.00 put wing and $285.00/$290.00 call wing

Sells put wing at $280 and call wing at $285, profiting from pin at $283 and time decay.

Why this play: Neutral-bearish bias inside $280-285 with high GEX and low VIX favor selling premium, outperforming directional plays.

Credit: $3.95-$4.83

Max loss: $0.17

BE: 275.17 / 289.83

Mgmt: Exit if VIX > 20 or IWM breaks $285/$275.

Range-bound, low-volatility expectations.

Risk-Defined Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $277.00/$272.00 put spread

Buy $277/$272 put spread, targeting breakdown below $277.

Why this play: High put/call ratio and bearish flow support downside protection; spread caps cost and risk.

Debit: $1.10-$1.34

Max loss: $1.34

BE: $275.66

Mgmt: Close if IWM holds above $283; take profit near $275.

Hedged bearish exposure with limited risk.

Upside-Limited Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $290.00/$296.00 call spread

Sell $290/$296 call spread, collecting premium while expecting IWM to stay below $290.

Why this play: Bearish flow suggests limited upside; credit spread generates income with defined risk.

Credit: $1.32-$1.62

Max loss: $4.38

BE: $291.62

Mgmt: Monitor break above $283; close early if VIX spikes.

Income-seeking with neutral-to-bearish view.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIWM between $280 and $285 for 2 consecutive days → Sell 2026-07-17 $280/$275 put wing and $285/$290 call wing (iron condor)

IFIWM breaks below $277 on volume → Buy 2026-05-29 $277/$272 put spread (bear put spread)

IFIWM rallies to $283 but stays below $290 → Sell 2026-05-29 $290/$296 call spread (call credit spread)

Exit Triggers

EXITIWM breaks below $275 or above $290 → Close iron condor

EXITIWM closes above $283 for 2 days → Close bear put spread

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish inside $280-285 pinning at $283. High GEX favors iron condor. Bear put spread if $277 breaks. Call credit spread on bounce to $283. Monitor VIX >20 and Gamma Flip $258.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.