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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $285.12EOD only

Max Pain

$279.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.67

1.3% from close

Price Gap

-6.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.72

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

IWM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with downside bias into the week; magnet pressure toward the $262–$264 pin concentrations but structural dealer gamma is negative (GEX -$13.3M) and flow is bearish; Confidence: 6.5/10.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 6.5 (pre-computed): +2 from aligned negative GEX/flow, -0.5 for spot 4.8% above MP; no imminent catalyst overlooked.

Supports: High put OI clusters at $245/$240/$230 and GEX flip at ~$245 provide structural support; near-term pinning at $262–$264 creates short-term resistance/mean-revert zone.
Conflicts: Net premium negative $-58.0M and P/C OI 2.51 indicate selling pressure that conflicts with pin magnets; term structure shows low 1–8d IV (25.2%→22.4%) which reduces option-selling edge for ultra-short weeklies.

📉GEX -$13.3M concentrated negative gamma implies trending downside if spot breaks below $262 concentrations

📌Pin cluster at $262/$263/$264 (GEX +$6.5M–+$7.7M) creates near-term mean-reversion toward $262–$264

🧱Put OI wall at $245 (116,715 OI) and $240 (108,991 OI) supports the $245–$240 area; gamma flip ~ $245

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV ~26.1% labeled Normal; short-dated IV is compressed (1–8d ATM 25.2%→22.4%) which mutes premium for immediate sellers.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Gamma Trending with total GEX -$13.3M and concentrated negative gamma ~262–265; matters because dealers will hedge by selling into rallies and stop-hedging into drops, amplifying moves.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Flow Bearish: Net premium -$58.0M, P/C volume 2.72 and P/C OI 2.51 — institutional put buying/short-call positioning supports downside bias.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $261.96 sits above Max Pain (~$250) but close to near-term pin at $262–$264; being above MP means asymmetry: short-term magnet to pins but structural drag toward $250 over time.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX, sustained bearish net premium and stable put OI clusters across expirations (MP flat ~ $250) indicate a 2–4 week trending/downside bias; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$259.24$264.67

Break below $259.24 opens fast move toward $252; sustained trade >$264.67 invalidates short bias.

Next 1 week

$259.48$264.44

Close under $259.48 (1w EM lower) targets $252 area; reclaim above $264.44 reduces dealer convex selling.

Next 2 weeks

$252.31$271.61

A break below $252.31 (2w lower EM) invites acceleration to $245 gamma flip; upside above $271.61 requires VIX-like event.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $250 (2026-04-09); $255 (2026-04-10); $253 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $259.24/$264.67; 1w $259.48/$264.44

Support: $250.00 · $245.00 · $240.00

Resistance: $264.00 · $263.00 · $262.00

Gamma flip: ~$245.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,715 (6.5% below spot)

Structural: Deep put floor $170–$245; large structural support cluster $245–$240 will slow/absorb major declines and mark gamma flip ~ $245 for dealer behavior.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-13.3M

DEX: +169.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$245 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 116,715 (6.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term positive GEX pins at $262/$263/$264 (+$6.5M–+$7.7M) create a short-term magnet; overall negative total GEX (-$13.3M) means dealers are net short gamma and will sell into rallies and buy into weakness — a 2% drop from spot will reduce hedging (less delta sold) and can accelerate downside; a 2% rally will trigger dealer selling into the bid around $263–$264.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 26.1% (normal) with compressed ultra-short IV: 1d 25.2% then 4–8d 19.6%–22.4% — immediate-week IV is cheap relative to 2–4 week which favors buying protection beyond 8d if directional.

Term structure: Front-week IV dip (1d–8d lower) then gradual roll-up into 15–45d (23.0%–24.0%); 1–8d IV compression suggests limited premium for selling weeklies.

Skew: Notable put skew: heavy flow at $250/$247/$245 and elevated IV on 4/10 puts (e.g., $262 4/10 IV 25.6%) — mispriced long-dated downside protection (sell near-term high-IV vs buy 30–45d lower-IV diagonals).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$58.0M (bearish); heavy institutional put buying at $250/$247/$245 consistent with downside hedging.

Directional prints: 25.6 put 262 ITM 2026-04-10 — IWM260410P00262000 vol 6,591 vs OI 346 (19.1x) — aggressive short-dated put flow; could be bought protection or sold-to-open; within bearish net premium regime interpreted as bought puts (hedging). 21 put 260 OTM 2026-04-13 — IWM260413P00260000 vol 4,533 vs OI 201 (22.6x) — fresh buy interest near-ATM into 4/13; consistent with downside positioning.

Unusual: 28 put 240 OTM 2026-05-22 — IWM260522P00240000 vol 5,105 vs OI 314 (16.3x) — institutional accumulation of longer-dated protection at $240, aligns with structural bullish put-floor interest.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $245 — crossing it changes dealer hedging from selling rallies to buying dips, increasing volatility.

!Upcoming expiries (4/10, 4/13) with concentrated short-dated put prints may spike IV if liquidations occur.

!Compressed 1–8d IV reduces short-premium pickup for weeklies; attempting to short into pins risks an IV pop and quick mark-to-market.

!Macro shock or sector sell-off would breach $252 EM lower and trigger acceleration toward $245 structural floor.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy IWM stock near $260–$262 as tactical dip-buy	Negative GEX and bearish flow; requires conviction above $262 pin
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Short shares or use bear-put if you need defined risk	Pin concentrations may cause short-term choppiness around $262–$264
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 270 call (sell higher-IV leg)	Upside squeeze above 270; limited upside capture given bearish regime
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $250 cash-secured put or sell 2026-05-22 $255/$250 put spread	Price < $250 gamma flip and gap risk
Long calls	Weak	Buy short-term calls for tactical rallies (weeklies) only	High theta and selling pressure from dealers
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-04-24 $255/$245 bear put spread or buy 2026-05-22 $265/$240 diagonal protection	IV moves; wider spread needed for meaningful payoff
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-04-13 262/252 put x 272/280 call condor (defined risk) — tactical only	Negative GEX and bearish flow make call-side risk asymmetric; low front-week IV reduces credit
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell near-term 2026-04-13 $262 put, buy 2026-05-22 $262 put (sell higher-IV leg if applicable) — capture term-structure and skew	Requires roll if spot moves; front-week IV can gap on expiries
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-30 250 LEAP put for protection while selling nearer-dated calls (270) for yield	Carry cost and assignment risk; requires time for thesis to play out

Top Plays

30–45 DTE Put Spread (Primary)

Sell 2026-05-22 $255/$250 put spread

Sells into bearish flow and captures put-rich net premium with protection to $250 structural support; aligns with MP ~ $250 and multi-week thesis.

Credit: $0.80-$1.60

Max loss: 4.20

BE: $254.20

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; cut if mark hits 60% of max loss or spot < $252.31 (2w EM lower).

Traders seeking defined-risk income over 30+ DTE

Diagonal Put (Skew/term trade)

Sell 2026-04-13 $262 put, buy 2026-05-22 $262 put (regular calendar)

Sell compressed near-term IV (4/13) and buy 30+ DTE protection where IV is higher on 5/22 for net debit/flat — exploits heavy short-dated buying and longer-dated protection demand.

Debit: $0.10-$0.50

Max loss: Cost of debit

BE: $261.90

Mgmt: Close near 50% profit or roll short leg down if spot < $259.24 for 2-day breach.

Traders wanting directional hedge with time decay arbitrage

Defined-risk Bear Put Spread (Tactical)

Buy 2026-04-24 $255/$245 bear put spread

Directional play benefiting from bearish flow and potential weekly IV between 4/17–4/24; protects against limited move to $245 gamma flip.

Debit: $2.00-$3.00

Max loss: Debit paid (~$200–$300)

BE: $252.00

Mgmt: Take 50% profit if spread >50% intrinsic; cut if spot > $264.67 (2d EM upper) or IV collapses.

Traders wanting directional exposure without unlimited risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds below $259.24 for 30 min → Sell 2026-05-22 $255/$250 put spread

IFIf spot tags $262 and fails to close >$263.50 (30m) → Sell 2026-04-13 $262 put and buy 2026-05-22 $262 put (diagonal)

IFIf spot gaps below $252.31 (2w EM lower) → Buy 2026-04-24 $255/$245 bear put spread

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot moves above $264.67 (2d EM upper) while short premium positions open → Buy back short puts and trim short calls; consider rolling short put spreads up one strike to $260/$255 30–45 DTE

ADJIf VIX/IV spikes >+6 vol-pts intra-day and spot < $259.24 → Take profits on short put spreads and convert to vertical or long-dated protection (buy 5/22 puts)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes >$271.61 (2w EM upper) → Close short premium and reverse to long calls/long stock

EXITIf spot closes < $245.00 (gamma flip) → Exit short premium and protect with 2026-06-30 245 put or buy immediate-dated puts

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bearish bias with short-term pinning at $262–$264; invalidation into a sustained bullish view is a clean reclaim and close above $264.67 (2d EM upper) and loss of negative net premium flow; regime favors defined-risk put-selling at 30–45 DTE (best), diagonals for carry/hedge, and tactical bear put spreads for directional conviction.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.