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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $282.49EOD only

Max Pain

$279.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.47

1.2% from close

Price Gap

-3.49

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

IWM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

IWM bullish bias from dealer long delta and spot above max pain ($280), but bearish flow and negative gamma add risk. Upward drift to $289.83 favored; high confidence (8.5) from strong GEX/flow alignment and low VIX.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +0.5 spot proximity to MP, +1 VIX 17.

Supports: Spot above MP, dealer long delta, low VIX, strong GEX/flow alignment.
Conflicts: Bearish flow, negative gamma, gamma flip at $270.

🟢Spot above $280 max pain; short gamma supports.

🔴Bearish flow nets negative premium.

⚠️Gamma flip at $270 key; break accelerates selling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vs. VIX 16.7; options priced modestly.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$138.8M trending; flip at $270.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium negative; bearish skew.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~$282 above $280 MP; dealer hedging leans bullish.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer positioning and volume trends suggest multi-week move.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$280.41$289.83

Resistance $289.83; break targets $294.68.

Next 2 weeks

$275.55$294.68

Support $275.55 holds; gamma flip at $270 caps downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $280 (2026-05-22); $279 (2026-05-26); $279 (2026-05-27)

EM guardrails: 1w $280.41/$289.83

Support: $272.00 · $270.00 · $269.00

Resistance: $294.68

Gamma flip: ~$270.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 141,307 (5.3% below spot)

Structural: Support $270 (gamma flip), resistance $294.68 (2w high). EM guardrails: 1w $280.41/$289.83.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-138.8M

DEX: +195.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$270 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 141,307 (5.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net short gamma -$138.8M, long delta +195.8M shares. Gamma flip ~$270. Negative gamma amplifies moves; dealers hedge by buying dips/selling rallies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 16.7; justified by small-cap uncertainty.

Term structure: Flat with slight backwardation in May22 expiry; June has OPEX risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling put spreads at $280 support.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$10.2M, put/call vol ratio 1.28, OI ratio 2.72, indicating strong bearish flow.

Directional prints: 28.4 put 286 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol 26,167 vs OI 166, aggressive put buying suggests bearish bets; likely opening new positions for downside.

Unusual: 28.4 put 286 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI ratio 157.6, extreme put activity; implied bearish sentiment with high IV. 20.6 put 279 OTM 2026-05-28 — Vol/OI ratio 46.1, significant put volume; bearish positioning with moderate IV. 26.3 put 267 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI ratio 45.5, notable put flow; bearish tilt with elevated IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Bearish flow caps upside if volume picks up.

!Gamma flip at $270 triggers downside acceleration.

!Macro rate decisions impact small caps.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-05 $284.00/$289.00 call spread Why now: Dealer long delta and spot above max pain support upside. Defined-risk bullish exposure fits multi-week horizon.	Bearish flow caps upside; gamma flip below $270.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-05 $277.50/$275.00 put spread Why now: High put/call flow suggests bearish positioning, but spot above max pain favors premium decay. Short put at 280 with protection at 278.	Gap down through 278 could widen loss; macro rate decisions risk.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $289.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $295.00 call Why now: Low VIX favors selling near-term premium; longer-dated call captures drift if thesis plays out beyond first expiration.	If jump higher near term, short call caps gains; time decay hurt if flat.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $284.00/$289.00 call spread

Buy $284 call, sell $289 call for net debit up to $2.84.

Why this play: Direct bullish exposure with defined risk, aligns with multi-week upward drift to $289.

Debit: $2.33-$2.84

Max loss: $2.84

BE: $286.84

Mgmt: Stop at $272 invalidation; close early if IV spikes.

Traders seeking defined-risk bullish bet.

Call Diagonal

Sell 2026-05-29 $289.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $295.00 call

Sell 5/29 $289 call, buy 6/26 $295 call for net debit up to $2.33.

Why this play: Exploits low VIX selling near-term premium while capturing drift with longer-dated call.

Debit: $1.91-$2.33

Max loss: $2.33

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage gamma risk near first expiry; roll if needed.

Traders expecting gradual drift with time decay advantage.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-05 $277.50/$275.00 put spread

Sell $277.50 put, buy $275 put for net credit up to $0.51.

Why this play: Collects premium from elevated put demand while protecting downside to $275.

Credit: $0.42-$0.51

Max loss: $1.99

BE: $276.99

Mgmt: Exit if spot closes below $277.5; watch gamma flip at $270.

Conservative traders seeking premium income with capped risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF IWM holds above $280.41 and breaks $284 with volume, THEN buy 2026-06-05 $284/$289 bull call spread for net debit up to $2.84. → Buy 2026-06-05 $284.00/$289.00 bull call spread at net debit ≤ $2.84.

IFIF IWM stays above $277.5 and above $280, THEN sell 2026-06-05 $277.5/$275 put credit spread for net credit up to $0.51. → Sell 2026-06-05 $277.50/$275.00 put credit spread at net credit ≥ $0.42.

IFIF IWM drifts to $289 with VIX low and above $280, THEN sell 2026-05-29 $289 call / buy 2026-06-26 $295 call diagonal for net debit up to $2.33. → Sell 2026-05-29 $289.00 call, buy 2026-06-26 $295.00 call diagonal at net debit ≤ $2.33.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF IWM closes below $272 (invalidation), THEN exit all bullish trades immediately. → Close all bullish positions: bull call spread, put credit spread, and call diagonal.

EXITIF IWM reaches $289.83 (1w guardrail) or $294.68 resistance, THEN take profit on bull call spread and call diagonal. → Close bull call spread and call diagonal; consider rolling put credit spread.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias for multi-week drift to $289.83 above max pain $280. Key support $270 gamma flip, resistance $294.68. Top play: bull call spread $284/$289. Use put credit spread for premium if spot stays above $277.5. Call diagonal exploits low VIX. Invalidation at $272 exit all. High confidence 8.5.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.