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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $273.00EOD only
Max Pain
$278.00
Next expiry May 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.74
1.0% from close
Price Gap
+5.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
1
Low premium
P/C OI
2.73
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
IWM Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
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Outlook

Bearish bias into monthly expiration due to negative gamma and bearish flow, with spot above max pain $274. Dealer delta provides underlying support, capping downside to ~270. Range-bound with downside skew.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5 +2 from strong GEX/flow alignment +0.5 spot near MP +0.5 VIX 18.4. Overall high conviction for bearish pin action.
Supports: Bearish flow, negative gamma, elevated VIX, spot above max pain.
Conflicts: Positive dealer delta (buying dips), support at 270/266, gamma flip at 258.
🔄Negative gamma amplifies moves; dealers sell rallies.
📌Max pain $274; spot above, likely drift toward it.
🛑Dealer delta +217M shares provides support on dips.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Normal vol (VIX 18.4) but elevated vs typical IWM; expiration-driven.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Negative GEX -$654M; trending regime, dealers hedged to amplify moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net bearish; puts dominating, elevated P/C ratio.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above $274 max pain; typical pull toward pin by expiration.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Monthly options expiration today; directional skew limited to expiration event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$274.02$281.18
Expiration pin to $274; range $274-$281.
Next 1 week
$271.59$283.61
Continued pressure, support $271.
Next 2 weeks
$269.19$286.01
Wider range $269-$286; potential bounce from support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $274 (2026-05-15); $283 (2026-05-18); $282 (2026-05-19)
EM guardrails: 2d $274.02/$281.18; 1w $271.59/$283.61
Support: $270.00 · $266.00 · $264.00
Resistance: $286.01
Gamma flip: ~$258.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 112,030 (7.1% below spot)
Structural: Structural support: 270, 266, 264. Resistance: 286. Gamma flip ~258 (put OI). Max pain today $274, next week $283, week after $282.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-653.9M

DEX: +217.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$258 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 112,030 (7.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$653.9M, DEX +217.2M shares. Dealers short gamma / long delta: sell rallies, buy dips. Gamma flip ~$258.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IWM IV elevated vs VIX, about 1.5-2x VIX; rich for near-dated options.

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to OPEX, backwardation from next week.

Skew: Put skew rich; consider put credit spreads or call calendars if expecting pin.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net bearish premium of $336.6M; put/call volume ratio 2.83 confirms heavy put buying.

Directional prints: 45.3 put 265 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 163.4; aggressive put buying; bearish bet on further downside. 23.9 put 275 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 64.4; large put accumulation; directional bearish sentiment. 25.2 put 269 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 71.0; notable put activity; bearish positioning for June.

Unusual: 45.3 put 265 OTM 2026-05-20 — Extreme vol/OI 163.4; highly unusual put volume; likely bought for downside protection or speculation. 28 put 259 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 72.4; unusual put buying at lower strike; expect volatility. 23.9 put 275 OTM 2026-05-20 — Vol/OI 64.4; massive put block; distinctly bearish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Expiration fails to pin to $274, spot rallies above $281.
!Positive dealer delta triggers a short squeeze on unwind.
!VIX collapse removes vol premium, hurting short vol positions.
!Bearish flow reverses if macro shifts, invalidating thesis.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Short strangleConditional
Sell 2026-06-26 $270.00 put + sell $285.00 call
Why now: Heavy put buying (put/call ratio 2.83) and bearish flow suggest downside pressure, but dealer gamma support near 270 limits selloff. Short strangle captures time decay and vol contraction.
Upside risk if spot rallies above 281 due to positive dealer delta squeeze; VIX collapse reduces premium; undefined tail risk to the upside.
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-29 $275.00/$269.00 put spread
Why now: Heavy put flow and negative gamma suggest downside; defined risk with 14-21 DTE.
Spot rallies above short strike; max pin fails.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-05-29 $286.00/$289.00 call spread
Why now: Spot capped by dealer gamma; upside limited, premium harvest with defined risk.
Spot rallies above short call; vol expansion.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-05-29 $271.00 put
Why now: Aggressive put buying and bearish flow; convexity with limited risk.
Spot rallies; time decay accelerates.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-05-29 $275.00/$269.00 put spread
Buy 275/269 put spread to profit from downside to 269, max loss capped.
Why this play: Directly benefits from downslide with defined risk; aligns with heavy put flow & negative gamma.
Debit: $1.52-$1.85
Max loss: $1.85
BE: $273.15
Mgmt: Exit at 50% gain or if spot breaks 286 invalidation.
Bearish outlook seeking defined risk.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-05-29 $271.00 put
Buy 271 put for convex downside exposure with limited risk.
Why this play: Unlimited upside from further drop; mirrors aggressive put buying seen in flow.
Debit: $2.48-$3.04
Max loss: $3.04
BE: $267.96
Mgmt: Take profits on 20% move; stop if spot above 286.
Aggressive bearish view expecting sharp drop.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-05-29 $286.00/$289.00 call spread
Sell 286/289 call spread to collect premium with defined risk.
Why this play: Captures upside cap from dealer gamma & bearish flow; defined risk.
Credit: $0.56-$0.69
Max loss: $2.31
BE: $286.69
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit; defend if spot nears short strike.
Range-bound to slightly bearish outlook.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF IWM spot <= $270.00 → Buy the 275/269 bear put spread near ask $1.85
IFIF IWM spot <= $271.00 → Buy the 271 put near ask $3.04
IFIF IWM spot >= $286.00 → Sell the 286/289 call credit spread near bid $0.56
Exit Triggers
EXITIF bear put spread profit >= $2.075 OR spot > $286.01 → Close the bear put spread
EXITIF long put profit >= $0.608 OR spot > $286.01 → Close the long put
EXITIF call credit spread profit >= $0.345 OR spot > $286.00 → Close the call credit spread

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias into expiration due to negative gamma and bearish flow. Key support at 270, resistance at 286. Range-bound with downside skew. Preferred: bear put spread, long put, call credit spread. Invalidate above 286.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.