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IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $290.43EOD only

Max Pain

$289.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.92

1.0% from close

Price Gap

-1.43

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

2.65

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

IWM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a mild upside tilt toward the 1-week upper EM $271.35 while pinned to the $265 area; Confidence: 8.5/10 (base). Primary supports are large positive GEX (+$234.8M) concentrated at $265/$266 and net call-heavy premium flow at $263–$270; conflict is falling multi-expiry max-pain trend ($259→$250) and P/C OI 2.49 which flags structural put demand below spot.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5: +2 GEX/flow alignment, +1 pinning GEX concentration, +0.5 low VIX (19.12); no imminent catalyst missed by the formula, so no override.

Supports: GEX +$93.7M at $265 and +$22.2M at $266 (near-term pinning), heavy call premium at $263/$264/$270; net premium +$31.1M.
Conflicts: Max pain trending down (shorter-term pins $258–$260) and sizable put OI clusters at $245/$230/$240 that create structural downside support if breached.

📌**Pinning** concentrated: +$93.7M GEX exactly at $265 (spot) — dealers hedging creates magnet near current price.

📈**Call-heavy flow**: $263/$264/$270 show large net call premium (e.g., $20.8M at $263) — upside skew in flow today.

🛡️**Large put OI floor**: $245 (109,871 OI) and layered puts $240/$230 create durable downside support around gamma flip ~$245.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV: Avg IV 23.2% with ATM term ~22–23% — not rich; intraday near-dated IV compressed (1–20% for 0–1d) reflecting low realized expected move.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+$234.8M) concentrated at $265/$266 producing a strong mean-reversion force and dealer delta hedging that resists moves away from spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: net premium +$31.1M with P/C vol 1.63 and P/C OI 2.49 — today’s flow is call-biased near spot but structural put demand exists lower.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $265.07 is above near-dated max-pain ($259–$260) which creates modest gravitational pull lower over expirations but near-term dealer hedging counteracts immediate moves.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and positive GEX concentrated across next 2 expirations (multiple GEX nodes at $265–$270) and MP trend is gradual; regime likely persists 2–4 weeks — prefer 30–45 DTE for core setups with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$262.80$267.35

Dealer hedging at $265/$266 pins price; breach below $262.80 would let puts and MP draw price toward $259.

Next 1 week

$258.80$271.35

MP cluster ~$258–$260 and call flow into $270 create a bounded range; breakouts require >$271.35 or <$258.80.

Next 2 weeks

$254.26$275.88

Sustained buying into $270/$272 and positive market internals (SPY/QQQ strength) would drive extension above $271; failure near MP opens path toward $254.26.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $259 (2026-04-13); $258 (2026-04-14); $260 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $262.80/$267.35; 1w $258.80/$271.35

Support: $259.00 · $250.00 · $245.00

Resistance: $267.00 · $270.00 · $272.00

Gamma flip: ~$245.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,871 (7.6% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor concentrated $170–$250 (particularly heavy OI at $245/$240/$230) — large long-dated put interest creates asymmetric downside protection for sellers but also a structural buying zone if price collapses toward $245.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+234.8M

DEX: +169.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$245 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,871 (7.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Heavy near-ATM positive gamma centered at $265 (+$93.7M GEX) and secondary nodes $266/$267; if spot ↓2% (~$259) dealer gross gamma support weakens but hedges will flip from selling to buying deltas, reducing downside acceleration; if spot ↑2% (~$270) dealers will sell deltas into calls and create resistance near $270–$272.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 23.2% vs VIX 19.12: IWM IV modestly rich to equity VIX but within normal; short premium still attractive given low absolute IV.

Term structure: Front-end steepness: 1d–7d ATM ramps from 14.8%→20.2% then flattens ~22–23% at 18–46d; short-dated IV elevated around expiries (1–4d) — sellers can pick up term roll premium.

Skew: Skew shows put OI concentration and cheap calls near 263–270; mispriced vol opportunity: sell 30–45d ATM options where IV (~22.4–22.8%) exceeds realized pinning-induced mean reversion, or buy protective cheap OTM puts beyond gamma flip (e.g., $245 LEAPS) if needing tail hedge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $31.1M (call-biased today); P/C volume 1.63, P/C OI 2.49 indicates heavy structural put OI below spot but intraday flow is call-heavy.

Directional prints: 0 call 263 ITM 2026-04-13 — IWM260413C00263000 CALL $263 exp 4/13 Vol 77,612 OI 3,381 (23x) — could be aggressive closing or dealer rolling; bought calls would reinforce upside; sells would be dealer hedging. 4.5 put 264 OTM 2026-04-13 — IWM260413P00264000 PUT $264 exp 4/13 Vol 26,197 OI 271 (96.7x) — large print into very short-dated put; interpreted more likely as short-dated hedging/flow rather than directional accumulation given tiny IV and very short tenor.

Unusual: 1.1 call 265 ITM 2026-04-13 — IWM260413C00265000 CALL $265 exp 4/13 Vol 100,242 OI 1,628 (61.6x) — huge intraday activity at-the-money suggesting heavy short-dated gamma trades or dealer adjustments.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near ~$245 — sustained break below removes dealer pinning and accelerates downside.

!Short-dated expiry cluster (4/13–4/17) can cause rapid pin/unpin moves and IV dislocations.

!VIX drift upward from 19 could compress net short-premium edge and widen tails.

!MP downward trend over expirations (~$259→$250) creates structural headwind for bulls across multi-week horizon.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy IWM shares at spot $265.07	Pinned short-term; gamma pinning may cap upside near $267–$270.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid outright short vs positive GEX; use only as hedge	Dealer hedging at $265 provides resistance to momentum down moves.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 IWM, sell 30–45d 267.0 call (e.g., 5/29 notional)	Call assignment if strong gap higher; pin near $265 reduces immediate capital gain.
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30–45d 258.0/253.0 put spread (sell 258, buy 253)	Break below $258 (1w EM lower bound) forces larger mark-to-market; gamma flip <$245 increases loss acceleration.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 18–46d 270.0 call (buy 270 exp 5/29)	Time decay if rally stalls; IV pick-up minimal relative to short-term.
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 30–45d 252.0/247.0 bear put spread (buy 252, sell 247)	Costly if pin holds above $265; good tail protection vs gamma flip.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 30–45d 253.0/248.0 put x 270.0/273.0 call (wings mapped to OI and EM)	VIX jump or break outside EM bounds (>$271.35 or <$258.80) rapidly eats premium.
Calendar / Diagonal	Moderate	Sell near-term 4/17 265.0 call, buy 30–45d 265.0 call (sell higher-IV leg near-term)	Requires front-end IV contraction and pin persistence; if spot moves >1–2% you will need adjustment.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 0.5–1x LEAPS put (e.g., 2027-01-15 250.0) and sell 30–45d calls 267.0	Long-dated put cost vs carry; downside protection with income offsets.

Top Plays

30–45d Put Spread (defined risk short premium)

Sell 2026-05-29 258.0/253.0 put spread

Collects premium into positive GEX pin and sits above 1w EM lower bound $258.80; sellers capitalize on mean-reversion and elevated near-term demand for short-dated gamma.

Credit: $0.55-$0.85

Max loss: $4.45

BE: $257.45

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if price <$256 or IV spikes >+4 vol pts.

Traders wanting defined-risk income with multi-week horizon

Iron Condor (30–45d neutral-income)

Sell 2026-05-29 253.0/248.0 put x 270.0/273.0 call

Maps short put wing to MP/OI support at 253–258 and short call wing to call flow resistance at 270–273; benefits from positive GEX pinning and flat-to-higher market internals.

Credit: $0.90-$1.50

Max loss: $4.10

BE: Below 252.10 / Above 271.10

Mgmt: Take 60% profit or if spot trades outside $258–$271 range; hedge with single long call/put if 1% break occurs.

Accounts comfortable with defined risk two-sided premium selling

Tactical Weekly Put Spread (overlay)

Sell 2026-04-17 263.0/261.0 put spread

Short-dated play to sell into the pin and buy time decay; uses heavy $263/$264 call flow to offset risk and picks up elevated 4–7d front IV.

Credit: $0.14-$0.30

Max loss: $1.86

BE: $262.86

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of credit; close if spot <$261 or IV spikes >+6 pts.

Tactical traders seeking quick decay and small capital use

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds ≥ $265.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 30–45d 258.0/253.0 put spread (exp 2026-05-29).

IFIf spot tags $270.00 and fails to close above $271.35 on 60-min basis → Initiate iron condor sell 253.0/248.0 put x 270.0/273.0 call (exp 2026-05-29).

IFIf spot dips to ≤ $263.00 and 4/13–4/17 short-dated IV compresses → Sell weekly 263.0/261.0 put spread (exp 2026-04-17).

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot moves down to <$258.80 (1-week EM lower bound) → Roll down short put wing of put spread one strike and buy 1–2x 30–45d 252.0/247.0 bear put spread as protection.

ADJIf VIX rises >24 and IV term >+4 vol pts vs current → Reduce short premium by buying back 50% of iron condor or add long 270.0 call single for upside hedge.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade returns ≥60% of max profit → Close position to harvest; for put spreads close entire short leg.

EXITIf spot < $245.00 (gamma flip) → Exit all short premium and buy protective LEAPS puts (e.g., 2027-01-15 250.0).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: positive near-term GEX pins IWM at $265, favoring defined-risk short premium (30–45d put spreads and iron condors) with weekly tacticals; invalidation is a sustained break below $245 (gamma flip) which removes dealer support and favors directional long puts. Top plays: 5/29 258/253 put spread (core), 5/29 253/248 x 270/273 iron condor (balance), weekly 4/17 263/261 put spread (tactical).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.