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INTC

Intel CorporationClose $119.84EOD only

Max Pain

$107.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.95

8.3% from close

Price Gap

-12.84

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.08

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects INTC options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

INTC Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to $55 area (pinning at $55 and concentrated call flow); Confidence: 7.0/10 (base). Strong signals: large positive GEX $+164.1M concentrated at $55/$52/$50, big net premium inflow $91.3M and heavy call buying at $55/$60; conflict: max pain ladder trending lower ($48→$40) and spot is 10.2% above longer-run MP which tempers conviction.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 from +164.1M GEX and bullish net premium; tempered by MP trend lower and spot distance from MP.

Supports: GEX pin magnets at $52.00, $52.50 and $50.00 with concentrated put OI at $40 providing deeper structural floor.
Conflicts: Max pain sequence falling ($48→$40) and high avg IV 73.4% (expensive) increases tail risk.

📌GEX pin cluster: +$19.5M at $55, +$15.9M at $50, +$10.5M at $52 — creates a local pinning band

📈Top premium flow concentrated in calls: $55 net ~$12.39M and $60 net ~$12.57M — dealers long call exposure

⚠️Max pain trend is lower (shorter-dated MP $48→$45) — structural pressure below current price

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV is High — ATM IV 80.7% (3d) / 68.7% (10d) with avg IV 73.4%, so premium is rich and selling premium is attractive if you accept pin risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — large positive GEX $+164.1M concentrated near $50–$55 produces mean-reversion and a magnet to that band.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow — net premium +$91.3M and heavy call premium at $50/$55/$60; P/C vol 0.55 confirms call-dominated flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $52.91 is above near-term MP ($48 on 4/10) which creates upward friction now but underlying MP trend lower signals asymmetric downside if pin breaks.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX sign and pinning persist across the next several expirations (concentrations at $50/$52/$55) and IV term structure shows elevated mid-term IV (17–45d), so 30–45 DTE is preferred, with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$49.82$56.00

Pinning at $52/$52.5 and heavy call flow at $55; break below $49.82 accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$48.11$57.71

Max pain at $48 on 4/10 exerts pull; sustained push above $55 negates pin and targets $57.71.

Next 2 weeks

$45.71$60.11

If GEX stays positive and dealers hedge by buying stock, upside to $60 becomes reachable; decisive break under $48.11 flips regime.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $48 (2026-04-10); $45 (2026-04-17); $45 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $49.82/$56.00; 1w $48.11/$57.71

Support: $50.00 · $52.00 · $49.82

Resistance: $55.00 · $56.00 · $57.71

Structural: Call OI wall $60–$70 caps upside; deep put floor at $30 provides long-tail support for extreme stress scenarios.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+164.1M

DEX: +171.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentration at $52.00 (+$10.5M), $52.50 (+$5.9M) and $55.00 (+$19.5M) implies dealer buying if spot falls and selling if spot rallies through those strikes; a ±2% move (~$51.86/$53.97) will force dealers to buy into weakness (support) and sell into strength (resistance), reinforcing mean reversion into the pin band.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 73.4% — expensive relative to broad-market VIX conditions (implied by high IV term points); favors premium sellers who size for pin risk.

Term structure: Kinky: 3d ATM 80.7% → 10d 68.7% → 17d 79.0% — elevated near-dated IV with swings; mid 30–45d ATM ~68.2%–75.1% so calendars can capture steepness.

Skew: Heavy front-week IV and call-heavy flow create a mispriced calendar/diagonal edge: sell 4/10 ATM (80.7%) vs buy 5/22 68.2% (~12.5 vol-pt tail) on selected strikes.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $91.3M call-dominant premium flow; P/C volume 0.55 indicates sustained call demand

Directional prints: 82.1 call 55 OTM 2026-04-10 — Large flow: 35,560 vol / OI 8,375 (4.2x) — could be buy-to-open calls or dealer sells; consistent with institutional directional call accumulation. 79.8 call 60 OTM 2026-04-24 — Notable: 16,087 vol / OI 2,213 (7.3x) — longer-dated call demand, favors upside skew. 80 put 52 OTM 2026-04-10 — Heavy put prints: 14,597 vol / OI 1,458 (10x) — could be protective hedges; both buy-puts and sell-spreads plausible, but overall flow remains call-biased.

Unusual: 79.1 put 53 ITM 2026-04-10 — Unusual: 3,770 vol vs OI 169 (22x) on 4/10 $53P — short-dated trading interest on near-ATM downside protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip is not available but a break below $49.82 (2d EM low) would force rapid dealer deleveraging and accelerate downside.

!April 10 weekly expiry (3d) concentrates risk — heavy short-dated calls and puts can create violent pin/unpin moves at $48–$55.

!High IV (3d 80.7%) means wide option bid-asks and poor fill risk for multi-leg executions.

!Max pain trending lower across expirations increases tail risk if macro shocks occur.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $52.91	High IV and MP trend lower; sudden gap to $48–$45 possible.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid initiating fresh short given positive GEX and call flow	Dealers long gamma make squeezes likely on downside attempts.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy shares + sell 2026-05-22 55.0C	Caps upside at $55; assignment if rallies above $55 before expiry.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 50.0P cash-secured or sell 50/48 put spread 4/17	Break below $48.11 (1w EM lower) and MP $48 increases loss risk.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-24 55.0C for directional upside	High front-week IV; expensive premium and delta decay.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 50.0P or 52/50 bear put spread 4/17	GEX pinning produces mean reversion; expensive IV reduces ROI.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 48.0/45.0P x 55.0/57.5C	VIX spike or break above $57.71 / below $48.11 blows wings.
Calendar / Diagonal (sell front buy back month)	Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 52.0 ATM (IV 80.7%) buy 2026-05-22 52.0 (IV 68.2%) — regular calendar, sell higher-IV near-term	Front-week pin/unpin can produce rapid loss; wide spreads on 4/10 leg increase execution slippage.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-10 55.0C and buy 2026-07-17 55.0C (sell high IV short-term, buy lower IV longer-term)	Front-week assignment and large IV differential; requires funded covered shares.

Top Plays

Sell 50/48 put spread 4/17

Sell 2026-04-17 50.0/48.0 put spread

Collects rich short-dated premium inside the GEX-supported band ($50 pin) with defined risk below 1w EM $48.11.

Credit: $0.40-$0.70

Max loss: 1.60 per spread

BE: $49.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 60–70% of max credit; cut at 1x max loss or if spot < $49 for 2 consecutive sessions.

Defined-risk premium collection

Sell 52 calendar (regular) — sell 4/10 buy 5/22

Sell 2026-04-10 52.0 (IV 80.7%) buy 2026-05-22 52.0 (IV 68.2%)

Exploits 12.5 vol-pt front-week premium vs mid-term; benefits from theta in near leg and pinning to $52 band.

Credit: $0.65-$1.10

Max loss: Varies (requires margin); worst-case if large move overwhelms calendar

BE: Dependent on roll; aim to close front leg if front-week IV crushes

Mgmt: Buy back front leg into >50% adverse move or VIX spike; take profit when short leg decays >70%.

Traders who can manage front-week pin risk

45+ DTE diagonal: buy 2026-05-22 55C sell 2026-04-10 55C (PMCC alternative)

Buy 2026-05-22 55.0C, sell 2026-04-10 55.0C

Longer-dated upside exposure funded by rich front-week calls; extra DTE captures mid-term move toward $60 and reduces theta bleed vs near-term outright call buy.

Debit: $0.20-$0.80

Max loss: Premium paid

BE: Strike + net debit (~55 + debit)

Mgmt: Take profit if long leg >2x cost or if spot fails to hold $52 for 3 trading days; roll short leg instead of buying to preserve long exposure.

Directional bullish view with constrained premium spend

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $52.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 50.0/48.0 put spread 2026-04-17

IFIf spot holds $52.50–$55.00 and front-week IV remains >78% → Sell 2026-04-10 52.0 call (short leg of calendar) and buy 2026-05-22 52.0 call

IFIf spot rallies and prints $55.00 with >$12M net call premium at $55 → Initiate 2026-05-22 55.0C long / sell 2026-04-10 55.0C short diagonal

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade hits 60–70% of maximum profitable target → Take profits on short premium trades (close entire position) and roll longs as appropriate

EXITIf spot breaks and holds below $48.11 (1w EM low) → Close all short premium and re-evaluate; hedge with 48/45 put spreads

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers’ large positive GEX and heavy call flow pin price into the $50–$55 band over the next several weeks; invalidation: sustained close below $48.11 (1w EM low) or $49.82 (2d EM low) which triggers dealer deleveraging. Regime favors shorting front-week elevated IV (calendars/diagonals) and defined-risk short put spreads; top plays: 50/48 put spread 4/17 (defined credit), 52 calendar (sell 4/10 buy 5/22) (vol arb), 55 diagonal (45+ DTE) for directional exposure.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.