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GS

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)Close $982.12EOD only

Max Pain

$930.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$21.40

2.2% from close

Price Gap

-52.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.10

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

GS Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight upside bias toward the $835-$850 max pain cluster. Confidence: 7/10. Spot is now above MP, GEX is positive (pinning), and net premium flow is bullish, but mixed flow signals and a spot 5.9% above nearest MP create a conflict.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.9% from MP. The mechanical score is accurate.

Supports: GEX +$4.0M (pinning), Net Premium +$43.6M (bullish), Rising MP trend ($815 → $850).
Conflicts: Spot vs MP: Above by 5.9%. Flow: Mixed (P/C vol 0.82).

📈Spot rallied ~$17 since prior report, now above MP.

📊Max pain ladder rising from $815 to $850 — bullish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 41.7% — elevated but 'Normal' regime; premium sellers have edge.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$4.0M concentrated near spot — strong pinning force, especially above the ~$800 gamma flip.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium +$43.6M bullish, but P/C ratios (0.82 vol, 0.90 OI) show call dominance with underlying put hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $863.04 is above nearest MP ($820) — gravity is upward toward the $835-$850 cluster.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a clear bullish drift over the next 5 weeks ($815 → $850 by 4/17). GEX sign remains positive, supporting a range-bound, pinning environment that persists across multiple expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$827.81$898.26

Pin and bullish MP drift support move higher within EM range; break below $828 invalidates.

Next 2 weeks

$803.49$922.59

Wider EM ($803-$923) with center of gravity near $850-$880; earnings (est. 4/13) will dominate.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $815 (2026-03-27); $820 (2026-04-02); $835 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $827.81/$898.26

Support: $800.00 · $740.00 · $195.00

Resistance: $1360.00 · $1280.00 · $1390.00

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,035

Structural: Distant call OI walls at $1280-$1390 are irrelevant for near-term trading. The significant put floor is at $800 (2,035 OI) and $740 (2,013 OI), providing major structural support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+4.0M

DEX: +8.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,035)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$4.0M. Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility near spot. A move below the ~$800 gamma flip would accelerate selling as dealers hedge short delta.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 41.7% is elevated — favorable for premium sellers, all else equal.

Term structure: Humped: 8-day IV 36.9% < 15-day IV 46.5% > 43-day IV 40.0%. The peak at the 4/17 expiry (46.5%) presents a selling opportunity vs. longer tenors.

Skew: The 4/17 (46.5%) vs. 6/18 (38.0%) ~8.5 vol-pt differential supports a calendar spread (sell 4/17, buy 6/18).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$43.6M bullish; P/C vol 0.82, P/C OI 0.90 — call dominance.

Directional prints: $850P 4/10 vol 306 vs OI 120 (2.5x) at 39.6% IV — likely bought puts for near-term hedge. $1340C 5/15 vol 274 vs OI 101 (2.7x) at 50.2% IV — could be bought calls for upside speculation or sold covered calls. One line summarizing all structural/hedging flow: Deep OTM LEAPS put buying ($290P Jan'27, $370P Sep'26) signals long-dated tail-risk hedging.

Unusual: $290P Jan'27: Vol 709 vs OI 130 (5.5x) at IV 53.6% — extreme OTM put with high vol, likely a financing or tail-risk hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below the ~$800 gamma flip could trigger accelerated dealer selling.

!Earnings expected ~4/13 — event vol will dominate the April expiry cycle and may break the pin.

!Elevated IV (41.7%) can compress rapidly in a pinning regime, hurting long premium.

!The 4/17 expiry IV hump (46.5%) is vulnerable to a post-earnings vol crush.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $830/$825 put spread & $900/$905 call spread, 4/17 expiry.	Break outside EM bounds or VIX spike.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $840/$835 put spread 4/17 (targeting MP).	Accelerated drop below $800 gamma flip.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $900C 4/17 (upper 1-week EM bound).	Missed upside if pin breaks higher.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $880C 4/17, sell $900C 4/17 for a call debit spread.	Pinning force and high IV crush premium.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Buy $850P / sell $830P 4/17 (bearish drift play).	Bullish MP drift and positive GEX work against it.
Calendar/diagonal spread	Moderate	Sell $860C 4/17 (46.5% IV), buy $860C 6/18 (38.0% IV).	Spot moves sharply, negating theta decay benefit.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $800C Jan'27 (33.4% IV), sell $900C 4/17 against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits call upside.
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Spot above MP but in a pinning regime; better to sell premium or wait for pullback.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning suppresses volatility and can cause painful rallies.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Targeting Max Pain Drift)

Sell $840/$835 put spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on the pinning regime and gravitational pull toward the rising max pain cluster ($835-$850). Defined risk below key support.

Credit: $0.85-$1.10

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $839.15

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $835 (short strike).

Traders comfortable with defined-risk premium collection in a range-bound, pinning environment with a bullish drift.

Iron Condor (Range-Bound Pin)

Sell $830/$825 put spread & $900/$905 call spread, 4/17 expiry.

Expresses the high-conviction view that spot remains pinned between the 1-week EM bounds ($828-$898) and near-term max pain levels. Positive GEX supports this range.

Credit: $1.40-$1.80

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $828.60

Mgmt: Manage at 50% max profit. Close entire position if spot breaches either short strike ($830 or $900).

Neutral traders seeking to harvest elevated IV (41.7%) with defined risk on both sides.

Calendar Spread (Vol Decay)

Sell $860C 4/17, buy $860C 6/18.

Exploits the 8.5 vol-point hump in term structure. The short leg decays rapidly in the pinning regime, while the long leg provides longer-dated exposure. The extra time (6/18) improves risk/reward by providing a hedge if the pin breaks after April earnings.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; profit zone is spot near $860 at April expiry with stable or falling IV.

Mgmt: Close when the short leg decays to 10-20% of its original value, or if spot moves >$20 from $860. Roll the short leg if challenged.

Traders with a neutral bias looking for a theta/vega play with lower directional risk than a naked short.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $850 (approaching 4/17 max pain) on low volume → Sell $840/$835 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $895 (upper 1-week EM bound) and stalls → Enter Iron Condor: sell $830/$825P & $900/$905C 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $800 (gamma flip level) → Exit all short premium positions (iron condor, put spread).

EXITVIX drops below 35 (IV crush) → Take profits on short premium trades early.

Tactical Summary

The primary thesis is a pinning regime with a bullish drift toward higher max pain levels ($835-$850) over the next month. Invalidation is a close below the $800 gamma flip. The regime favors selling premium (iron condors, put spreads) around the pin, and exploiting the humped term structure with calendars. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk pin play, 2) Iron condor for neutral range harvest, 3) Calendar spread for a longer-dated vol decay trade.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.