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GS

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)Close $982.12EOD only

Max Pain

$930.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$21.40

2.2% from close

Price Gap

-52.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.10

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

GS Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a gravitational pull toward lower max pain levels ($815-$835). Confidence: 7.5/10. Spot is 3.8% above the nearest max pain, and positive GEX/DEX suggests a pinning regime, but mixed flow and a rising MP trend over time signal underlying weakness.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning); +1 GEX positive; -0.5 spot 3.8% from MP. No override: the mechanical score captures the regime well.

Supports: GEX +$6.1M (pinning), DEX +8.7M shares (dealer long), rising MP trend signals drift lower.
Conflicts: Spot vs MP: Above. Flow: Mixed (P/C vol 1.02).

📌Strong pinning regime (GEX +$6.1M) with spot above MP.

📉Max pain ladder rises from $815 to $825, then falls to $795 by May — a bearish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 42% — elevated but 'Normal' regime; premium sellers have some edge.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$6.1M concentrated near spot — strong pinning force, especially above the ~$800 gamma flip.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium +$42.9M bullish, but P/C ratios near 1.0 show no clear directional conviction.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $845.99 is above nearest MP ($815) — gravity is lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a clear bearish drift over the next 5-6 weeks ($815 → $795 by May 8). GEX sign remains positive, supporting a range-bound, pinning environment that persists across multiple expirations.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$824.79$867.19

Pinning force and spot above MP suggest drift lower into the $824.79-$867.19 EM range. A break above $867 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$803.61$888.36

Max pain pins at $820 (4/2) and $835 (4/10) act as magnets. The lower EM bound at $803.61 is key support.

Next 2 weeks

$782.41$909.56

EM range $782-$910 is wide, but the falling MP trend ($835→$805) suggests the range's center of gravity is declining.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $815 (2026-03-27); $820 (2026-04-02); $835 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $824.79/$867.19; 1w $803.61/$888.36

Support: $800.00 · $740.00 · $195.00

Resistance: $1360.00 · $1280.00 · $1390.00

Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,038

Structural: Distant call OI walls at $900-$1390 are irrelevant for near-term trading. The significant put floor is at $800 (2,038 OI) and $740 (2,016 OI), providing major structural support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+6.1M

DEX: +8.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$800 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 2,038)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$6.1M. Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility near spot. A move below the ~$800 gamma flip would accelerate selling as dealers hedge short delta.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 42% is elevated — favorable for premium sellers, all else equal.

Term structure: Humped: 2-day IV 39.7% < 17-day IV 44.0% > 45-day IV 40.4%. The peak at the 4/17 expiry (44%) presents a selling opportunity vs. longer tenors.

Skew: The 4/17 (44%) vs. 6/18 (38.5%) ~5.5 vol-pt differential supports a calendar spread (sell 4/17, buy 6/18).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$42.9M bullish; P/C vol 1.02, P/C OI 0.93 — mixed signals.

Directional prints: $830P 4/2 vol 1,883 vs OI 152 (12.4x) at 40% IV — likely bought puts for near-term hedge. $925C 4/17 vol 1,331 vs OI 217 (6.1x) at 40.1% IV — could be bought calls or sold covered calls.

Unusual: Deep OTM LEAPS puts ($290P Jan'27, $370P Sep'26) with IV >57% — likely tail-risk hedging or financing for other positions.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below the ~$800 gamma flip could trigger accelerated dealer selling.

!Elevated IV (42%) can compress rapidly in a pinning regime, hurting long premium.

!Max pain drift lower over the next month suggests underlying bearish positioning.

!Earnings expected ~4/13 — event vol will dominate the April expiry cycle.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell $820/$815 put spread & $860/$865 call spread, 4/10 expiry.	Break outside EM bounds or VIX spike.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $820/$815 put spread 4/10 (targeting MP).	Accelerated drop below $800 gamma flip.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $860C 4/10 (upper EM bound).	Missed upside if pin breaks higher.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $835P / sell $815P 4/10 (bearish drift play).	Pinning force and positive GEX crush premium.
Calendar/diagonal spread	Moderate	Sell $840C 4/17 (44% IV), buy $840C 6/18 (38.5% IV).	Spot moves sharply, negating theta decay benefit.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Buy $700C Jan'27, sell $860C 4/10 against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pin limits call upside.
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Spot above MP with bearish drift; better to sell premium or wait for pullback.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pinning suppresses volatility and can cause painful rallies.

Top Plays

Put Spread (Targeting Max Pain)

Sell $820/$815 put spread, 4/10 expiry.

Capitalizes on the pinning regime and gravitational pull toward the $815-$835 max pain cluster. Defined risk below key support.

Credit: $0.85-$1.10

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $819.15

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $815 (short strike).

Traders comfortable with defined-risk premium collection in a range-bound, pinning environment.

Iron Condor (Range-Bound Pin)

Sell $820/$815 put spread & $860/$865 call spread, 4/10 expiry.

Expresses the high-conviction view that spot remains pinned between the 1-week EM bounds ($803-$888) and near-term max pain levels. Positive GEX supports this range.

Credit: $1.40-$1.80

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $818.60

Mgmt: Manage at 50% max profit. Close entire position if spot breaches either short strike ($820 or $860).

Neutral traders seeking to harvest elevated IV (42%) with defined risk on both sides.

Calendar Spread (Vol Decay)

Sell $840C 4/17, buy $840C 6/18.

Exploits the 5.5 vol-point hump in term structure. The short leg decays rapidly in the pinning regime, while the long leg provides longer-dated exposure. The extra time (6/18) improves risk/reward by providing a hedge if the pin breaks after April earnings.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; profit zone is spot near $840 at April expiry with stable or falling IV.

Mgmt: Close when the short leg decays to 10-20% of its original value, or if spot moves >$20 from $840. Roll the short leg if challenged.

Traders with a neutral-to-bearish bias looking for a theta/vega play with lower directional risk than a naked short.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to $860 (upper 2-day EM bound) and stalls → Enter Iron Condor: sell $820/$815P & $860/$865C 4/10.

IFSpot dips to $825 (approaching 4/2 max pain) on low volume → Sell $820/$815 put spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $800 (gamma flip level) → Exit all short premium positions (iron condor, put spread).

EXITVIX drops below 35 (IV crush) → Take profits on short premium trades early.

Tactical Summary

The primary thesis is a pinning regime with a bearish drift toward lower max pain levels ($815→$795) over the next month. Invalidation is a close below the $800 gamma flip. The regime favors selling premium (iron condors, put spreads) around the pin, and exploiting the humped term structure with calendars. Top plays: 1) Put spread for defined-risk pin play, 2) Iron condor for neutral range harvest, 3) Calendar spread for a longer-dated vol decay trade.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.