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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.Close $387.66EOD only

Max Pain

$397.50

Next expiry May 20, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.72

1.7% from close

Price Gap

+9.84

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.91

Balanced positioning

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOGL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

GOOGL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish bias driven by strong dealer gamma pinning (+169.6M GEX) and bullish flow, supported by normal vol and spot above max pain. Upside targets within 2d range $390-$403.5, but $400 resistance and broader market weakness cap near-term gains. Multi-week drift higher likely with VIX at 18.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 gamma pinning; -1 spot 18.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18.

Supports: Bullish flow, strong GEX, normal vol, spot above MP.
Conflicts: SPY-1.2%, QQQ-1.5% negative bias, $400 resistance.

🟢GEX +169.6M supports pinning near $395 max pain.

⚠️Spot 18% above MP; mean-reversion risk if flow shifts.

📊Normal vol and VIX 18 favor steady drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol – IV within typical range, no stress pricing.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime – large positive GEX ($169.6M) attracts spot toward max pain ($335-$395).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow – net call buying dominates, skews dealer positioning long.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above max pain – spot near $395 vs MP $335, but pinning from May 18 expiry at $395 limits downside.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple weekly max pain pins and range leans across 2d-2w suggest persistent bullish bias, not event-specific.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$390.05$403.50

Support 390, resistance 403.5; max pain pin at $395 (May 18) pulls spot higher.

Next 1 week

$382.95$410.60

Range 383-410.6; bullish flow and gamma support drift toward 400+.

Next 2 weeks

$387.73$405.83

Range 387.7-405.8; structural resistance at 405-410 caps gains.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $335 (2026-05-15); $395 (2026-05-18); $390 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $390.05/$403.50; 1w $382.95/$410.60

Support: $387.73

Resistance: $400.00 · $405.83 · $410.00

Structural: Support 387.73 (2w low), 382.95 (1w low); resistance 400 (psychological), 405.83 (2w high), 410 (1w high). EM guardrails: 2d 390-403.5, 1w 382.95-410.6. Max pain pins: $335 (May 15), $395 (May 18), $390 (May 20).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+169.6M

DEX: +96.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma ($+169.6M) and long deltas (+96.3M shares), indicating upside bias. No gamma flip risk within 30% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV normal vs VIX 18.4, not rich or cheap.

Term structure: Upward-sloping with kinks at weekly expiries (May 15, 18, 20).

Skew: Skew neutral; no standout vol arbitrage.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Strong net call premium of $173M with P/C vol ratio 0.44, indicating bullish flow.

Directional prints: 11 call 397.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 10.9x, massive volume vs OI; likely aggressive buying for upside exposure. Preferred read: bullish. 20.9 call 400 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 8.7x, new positions initiated; bought likely for directional rally. Preferred read: bullish. 20.2 call 397.5 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 9.0x, repeated buying at 397.5 strike; bullish conviction. Preferred read: bullish.

Unusual: 13.7 put 392.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 10.0x for a put in bullish regime; possibly hedging or bearish speculation. Unusual divergence. 40 call 445 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 9.7x on far OTM call; high IV suggests speculative lottery-ticket buying. Unusual. 28.1 put 375 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 5.2x on deep OTM put; small size but elevated IV relative to others. Unusual bearish tail.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot correction toward max pain ($335) if flow reverses.

!Resistance at $400 and $410 caps upside.

!Broad market weakness (SPY -1.2%) may drag GOOGL lower.

!Gamma flip if spot drops below $335 (unlikely near term).

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $405.00/$435.00 call spread Why now: Bullish flow and dealer gamma pinning support gradual rally; spread caps cost.	Resistance at 400/410 may cap upside; expiration before earnings limits time.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $360.00/$330.00 put spread Why now: High GEX at 400 and strong call flow suggests downside support; credit spread limits risk.	If spot breaks below short put strike, loss limited to spread width.
Long call	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $405.00 call Why now: Unusual call activity and positive GEX skew favor long call; simple convexity.	Time decay if rally stalls; premium expensive on longer expiration.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $405.00/$435.00 call spread

Buy 405/435 call spread for gradual rally; risk defined, max gain 19.3 vs max loss 10.7.

Why this play: Best aligned with bullish thesis: upside capped but cost efficient, leverages gamma pinning and call flow.

Debit: $8.75-$10.70

Max loss: $10.70

BE: $415.70

Mgmt: Exit near earnings or if price breaches $387.73 invalidation.

Traders seeking defined-risk upside exposure with multi-week horizon.

Long Call

Buy 2026-07-17 $405.00 call

Buy 405 call for direct upside; benefits from vol expansion.

Why this play: Simple convexity play on bullish momentum, but higher cost and unlimited risk.

Debit: $16.88-$20.62

Max loss: $20.62

BE: $425.62

Mgmt: Monitor closely; consider stop-loss at invalidation level.

Aggressive traders expecting strong directional move.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $360.00/$330.00 put spread

Sell 360/330 put spread; profits if GOOGL stays above 360.

Why this play: Neutral-to-bullish, collects premium, but less direct upside; downside protection.

Credit: $3.88-$4.75

Max loss: $25.25

BE: $355.25

Mgmt: Manage near expiration; roll if tested.

Income-focused traders wanting downside buffer.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFGOOGL breaks above $400 with volume → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-07-17 $405/$435 call spread (max loss 10.7)

Exit Triggers

EXITGOOGL closes below $387.73 → Exit all bullish positions to cap losses

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, multi-week drift, support 387.73, resistance 400/410. Top play: bull call spread 405/435. Risk: close below 387.73 invalidates.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.