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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.Close $402.62EOD only

Max Pain

$332.50

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.22

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-70.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.91

Balanced positioning

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOGL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

GOOGL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias supported by strong dealer gamma and flow, but spot far above max pain warns of near-term reversion risk. Confidence high at 8/10.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 positive gamma pinning, -1 spot 20% above MP, +1 low VIX supporting vol.

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma $217M, dealer net long delta 98M shares
Conflicts: Spot 20% above max pain, far from $332; no gamma flip but upside may be capped near $410

🟢Bullish flow and positive gamma support near $395

⚠️Spot 20% above MP ($332) signals reversion risk

📊VIX at 17 low, IV normal – options cheap for direction

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal relative to historical; VIX at 17 low – volatility underpriced for large moves

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive dealer gamma $217.6M, concentrated near $395; pinning effect supports spot

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium positive, call buying dominant; P/C low – bullish sentiment

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $404 vs nearest MP $395 (May18) – 2.3% above, but 20% above May15 MP $332

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained bullish flow and positive gamma indicate structural support; near-term pinning but broader upside to $422

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$395.46$406.68

Max pain pin near $395; resistance at $410; range $395-$407

Next 1 week

$386.75$415.40

Supports $387; resistance $415; positive gamma prevents sharp drops

Next 2 weeks

$380.40$421.75

Broader range $380-$422; structural flow could push to $422

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $332 (2026-05-15); $395 (2026-05-18); $390 (2026-05-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $395.46/$406.68; 1w $386.75/$415.40

Support: $380.40

Resistance: $410.00 · $421.75

Structural: Max pain: $332 (May15), $395 (May18), $390 (May20); 2d range $395-$407; 1w $387-$415; 2w $380-$422; support $380; resistance $410/$422; no gamma flip below spot

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+217.6M

DEX: +98.3M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Dealers net long gamma $217.6M, net long delta 98.3M shares; positive gamma supports pinning near $395; no flip risk within 30% below spot

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: GOOGL IV (~25%) moderately rich vs VIX 17.2; reflects bullish options demand but not extreme

Term structure: Front-end elevated due to pinning; contango as back months lower; no major event skew

Skew: Put skew elevated on downside; call skew flat; opportunity: sell put spreads at $380 support

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $181.9M positive; P/C vol ratio 0.54, OI ratio 0.91. Call dominance confirms bullish flow.

Directional prints: 37.9 call 500 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 13.5x; volume 5135 vs OI 380. Likely bought OTM calls for upside. Could be sold but aggressive ratio suggests new bullish position. 34.7 call 407.5 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 6.1x; volume 2350 vs OI 386. Bought as upside speculation; likely opening long call.

Unusual: 25.5 put 390 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 16x; volume 3188 vs OI 199. Highly unusual; bought puts for downside. Could be sold premium but aggressive new bearish bet. 37.9 call 500 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 13.5x; volume 5135 vs OI 380. Unusual OTM call buying; extremely bullish long-dated positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Reversion risk: spot 20% above MP $332 could trigger hedging scramble

!Macro vol spike: VIX low, any shock could reverse bullish flow

!Gamma flip if spot breaks below $380 – dealer gamma turns negative

!Expiry pin mismatch: May15 pin at $332 far below spot – no support

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $400.00/$425.00 call spread Why now: Flow shows strong call buying; reversion risk suggests defined risk spread over naked calls.	Max loss if spot drops below long strike; reversion could trigger early loss.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $380.00/$375.00 put spread Why now: Bullish flow and gamma support; premium from OTM put sale with defined tail risk.	Max loss if spot breaks below short strike; reversion could widen quickly. Substitutions: long_put: resolved contract 2026-07-17 $377.50 missing; used 2026-07-17 $375.00.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $380.00 put Why now: Call dominance suggests upside; short put collects premium and benefits from bullish bias.	Unlimited upside on long call; short put can lose if spot falls sharply.

Top Plays

Defined Upside Capture

Buy 2026-07-17 $400.00/$425.00 call spread

Buy 400/425 call spread to cap risk while leveraging bullish momentum.

Why this play: Flow shows strong call buying; reversion risk favors defined risk over naked calls.

Debit: $9.43-$11.52

Max loss: $11.52

BE: $411.52

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks $380; manage theta decay near expiration.

Traders seeking upside exposure with limited downside.

Premium Collection with Tail Hedge

Sell 2026-07-17 $380.00/$375.00 put spread

Sell 380/375 put spread to collect premium while staying bullish.

Why this play: Bullish flow and gamma support; short put spread collects premium with defined tail risk.

Credit: $1.64-$2.01

Max loss: $2.99

BE: $377.99

Mgmt: Roll or close if spot breaches $380; take profit at 50% max gain.

Conservative traders wanting income with defined risk.

Aggressive Upside Unbound

Buy 2026-07-17 $420.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $380.00 put

Buy 420 call, sell 380 put for unlimited upside potential.

Why this play: Call dominance suggests strong upside; short put funds long call but exposes to reversion.

Debit: $2.41-$2.94

Max loss: $380.00

BE: $380.00

Mgmt: Monitor reversion risk; consider closing put if spot falls near $380.

Aggressive traders comfortable with higher downside risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot pulls back to $380.4 support with bullish reversal pattern → Enter bull call spread: buy 2026-07-17 $400/$425 call spread at 9.43-11.52

IFSpot holds above $380.4 and closes above $395 (2d range top) → Sell put credit spread: sell 2026-07-17 $380/$375 put spread at 1.64-2.01

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot breaks below $380.4 with volume → Exit risk reversal: close 2026-07-17 $420 call / $380 put

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias on GOOGL but reversion risk high. Favor defined-risk plays: bull call spread on pullback to $380 or put credit spread on strength above $395. Exit if $380 breaks. Key resistance $410/$422.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.