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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.Close $321.31EOD only
Max Pain
$302.50
Next expiry Apr 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.25
1.6% from close
Price Gap
-18.81
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
94
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOGL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 13, 2026 close
GOOGL Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet into the $322.50–$325 area; Confidence: 8.5/10. Primary supports are very large positive GEX (+$190.8M) concentrated at $320/$322.50 and heavy call-side premium flow at $335/$340 driving dealer delta hedging into spot; conflicts are falling multi-expiry max-pain ($312→$300) and EM upper bound near $329.48 that caps rallies.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Base 8.5 from pre-computed: +190.8M GEX pinning at $320/$322.5 (pin magnet), net premium +$161.7M, VIX 19.12 reduces tail risk; no overriding catalysts discovered.
Supports: GEX +$14.2M at $320 and +$5.5M at $322.50 pinning spot; near-term put OI clusters at $310/$315 provide support; net premium $161.7M bullish flow.
Conflicts: Max pain trend falling (shorter-dated MPs $312.50→$300) creates medium-term downward pressure; large structural call wall $340–$350 caps upside; IV term bump in 18–46d increases forward risk.
📌GEX pin concentration at $320/$322.50 is the dominant near-term price magnet (GEX +$14.2M / +$5.5M).
💳Heavy institutional call buying at $335/$340 (net call premium $48.0M and $46.1M) — dealers will hedge by buying underlying, supporting spot.
⚠️Max pain slope is downward ($312→$300 across expiries) — if momentum fades, sellers can push toward those levels post-expiry.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Avg IV 39.7% overall but near-term IV is depressed (2d ATM 22.8%, 7d 25.1%) while 18d+ elevates (40.2% at 18d) — favourable for selling short-dated premium and buying term when longer-dated vol rich.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Gamma = Pinning: large positive GEX (+$190.8M) concentrated at $320/$322.50 causing a magnet effect — dealers buy on dips/ sell on rallies around those pins, compressing moves.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Flow = Bullish: Net premium +$161.7M and P/C volume 0.52, with concentrated call premium at $335/$340 driving directional dealer hedging that supports spot.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $321.31 is Above Max Pain (near-term MPs $312.50–$315) which creates asymmetric pressure: short-term dealer hedging supports spot but longer-dated expiry MPs trend lower.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning + persistent net bullish flow across expirations and elevated mid-term IV (18–46d) indicate a 2–4 week regime; MP trend downward is structural over months but not immediate — prefer 30–45 DTE for core trades, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$316.06$326.56
Breaching $316.06 lower bound (2d EM) with volume would flip dealer behavior to defensive selling.
Next 1 week
$313.13$329.48
Sustained move above $329.48 requires clearing call OI wall $340–$350 and heavy flow reversal.
Next 2 weeks
$298.06$344.56
Close below $300 would trigger structural acceleration toward put floor $200–$215 (distant).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $312 (2026-04-13); $302 (2026-04-15); $300 (2026-04-17)
EM guardrails: 2d $316.06/$326.56; 1w $313.13/$329.48
Support: $320.00 · $317.50 · $310.00
Resistance: $325.00 · $329.48 · $340.00
Structural: Structural call OI wall at $340–$350 caps rallies; distant put floor $200–$215 is the long-term downside anchor for tail-hedging decisions.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+190.8M

DEX: +73.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma concentrated at $320 (+$14.2M) and $322.50 (+$5.5M) — dealers will buy on small dips toward ~$320 and sell into rallies above $325; if spot falls ~-2% (~$314), dealer short-delta converting reduces buying and may accelerate downside toward $310; if spot rises +2% (~$327), dealers trim long-delta hedges and can blunt upside into EM upper bound $326.56–$329.48.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 39.7% vs VIX 19.12; near-term IV depressed (2d 22.8%, 7d 25.1%) while 18d+ ATM IV 40.2% is rich — short near-dated vol, buy calendar/diagonals into richer mid-term IV.

Term structure: Term structure steep: 7d 25.1% → 18d 40.2% (+15.1 vol-pt); 32d 36.7% remains elevated — trade calendars/diagonals selling higher-IV leg (mid-term).

Skew: Skew: call/put asymmetric flow with heavy call buying at $335/$340; mispriced opportunity: sell the higher-IV mid-term and buy the lower-IV near-term at same strike (reverse calendar) capturing ~15.1 vol-pt.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $161.7M bullish; P/C vol 0.52 indicates call-dominant flow.

Directional prints: 29.9 put 310 OTM 2026-04-15 — Vol 6,816 vs OI 218 (31.3x) — large short-dated put flow; could be buy-to-open protection or sell-to-open hedges; consistent with net bullish flow, interpreted more likely bought puts (hedge) but size implies dealer hedging amplifies pin action. 3.9 call 322.5 OTM 2026-04-13 — Vol 9,625 vs OI 964 (10x) printed at expiry — aggressive short-dated call activity feeding delta buy into spot, consistent with bullish dealer hedging.

Unusual: 36.7 put 320 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol 2,249 vs OI 110 (20.4x) in 2026-05-22 $320 puts — large mid-term put activity that could indicate institutional collaring or directional positioning into May; given bullish flow, likely bought protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip if spot breaks below $316.06 (2d EM lower) causing dealers to stop buying into dips.
!Max-pain downward trend (MPs $312.50→$300) — post-expiry selling can reassert and pull price toward $300 over weeks.
!IV term bump (18–46d) punctures short-dated shorts if realized vol rises — VIX >25 would stress short premium positions.
!Large call OI at $340–$350 creates cap; failing to clear that level invites fast profit-taking and mean-reversion.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-WeakBuy GOOGL shares at market $321.31Gap downside toward $300; capital intensive.
Short stockWeakShort GOOGL (naked)Against strong dealer buy flows at $320; high gamma risk.
Covered callModerateBuy stock + Sell 2026-04-20 $325 callCapped upside at $325; assignment if rallies above $329.48.
Cash-secured putModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-20 $315 putPut assigned below $315; flip if MP trend accelerates lower.
Put spread (short put spread)StrongSell 2026-04-20 $315 / Buy $305 put spreadBreak below $305 accelerates losses toward $305 lower leg.
Long callsModerate-WeakBuy 2026-05-15 $330 callTime decay and IV crush; expensive given term IV.
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-WeakBuy 2026-05-15 $305 / Sell $295 put spreadCostly if downside fails; mid-term IV already rich.
Iron condorModerate-StrongSell 2026-04-20 $305/$295 put x $325/$330 call iron condorVIX spike or breach of pins will blow wings.
Reverse calendar (sell higher-IV leg)StrongSell 2026-05-01 $320 call (ATM 40.2% IV) / Buy 2026-04-20 $320 call (ATM 25.1% IV) — reverse calendar (sell longer-dated, buy near-dated). Vol diff: sell 40.2% buy 25.1% ≈ +15.1pt.Shorter front leg exposure if front-week explodes; net short vega and potential roll requirement if spot moves >±2%.

Top Plays

#1
Short-dated Put Spread (Tactical)
Sell 2026-04-20 $315 / Buy $305 put spread
Edge from strong positive GEX pin at $320–$322.5 and depressed near-term IV (7d ATM 25.1%) with dealer buying into dips; put OI cluster at $315 supports the short side.
Credit: $0.45-$0.75
Max loss: $9.55
BE: $314.55
Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; cut at 1.5x max loss or if spot < $310 for 2 successive 1-hour candles.
Defined-risk premium collectors looking for multi-week exposure
#2
Reverse Calendar / Diagonal (Vol-curve arbitrage)
Sell 2026-05-01 $320 call, Buy 2026-04-20 $320 call (reverse calendar) — sell 40.2% IV, buy 25.1% IV (~+15.1pt edge)
Selling higher-IV mid-term and buying cheaper near-term captures term-structure premium while benefiting from pinning that keeps spot rangebound; structure profits if mid-term vol compresses more than front-week expands.
Credit: $0.20-$0.60
Max loss: Variable/management-dependent
BE: Varies by fill; monitor front-week gamma risk
Mgmt: Take profits early (40–60% of max); if spot rallies >$330 or falls < $313, buy back sold long-dated leg and re-establish as calendar or roll.
Traders seeking short vega, vol-arb credit trades with active management
#3
30+ DTE Put-Credit Spread (Core multi-week)
Sell 2026-05-15 $315 / Buy $305 put spread
30+ DTE captures elevated mid-term IV (32d ATM 36.7%) allowing larger credit; aligns with GEX pin support at $320 and MP weakness further out making it attractively priced compared to short weeklies.
Credit: $1.40-$2.20
Max loss: $8.60
BE: $313.60
Mgmt: Take 50–60% profit; cut if spot < $305 or if 7d realized vol > mid-term IV and spot trending down.
Core income allocators wanting multi-week edge with defined risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $320.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-20 $315 / Buy $305 put spread
IFIf front-week IV (7d) rises above 30% while 18d IV > 38% → Sell 2026-05-01 $320 call and Buy 2026-04-20 $320 call (reverse calendar)
IFIf spot drops to $316.06 (2d EM lower) and bounces within 1 hour → Buy GOOGL shares or initiate Covered Call sell 2026-04-20 $325 call
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot > $325.00 for 2 consecutive 30-min bars → Trim short-put exposure and roll front-week calendars up by one strike (e.g., $320→$325) or buy back short front leg
ADJIf VIX spikes to >25 or realized 7d vol > mid-term IV → Close short premium trades (put spreads, iron condors) and switch to buying protection (buy 2026-05-15 $305 puts)
Exit Triggers
EXITIf short put spread reaches 50–70% of max profit → Buy to close the put spread
EXITIf spot falls below $305.00 → Exit short premium and consider converting to long put spread 2026-05-15 $305/$295

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bullish pin around $320–$322.50 with dealer buying into dips; invalidate if spot decisively breaks below $313–$316 (2d/1w EM lower and MP zone). Regime favors shorting short-dated premium and selling the richer mid-term IV (reverse-calendar) while using 30–45 DTE put-credit spreads as core income.

Read the Directional analysis for GOOGL for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.