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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.Close $382.97EOD only

Max Pain

$387.50

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.96

1.6% from close

Price Gap

+4.53

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.91

Balanced positioning

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOGL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

GOOGL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term upside magnet to the 320–322 area; Confidence: 7.0/10. Primary supports are large positive GEX (+$176.4M) concentrated at 320.00/322.50 and heavy net bullish premium flows concentrated at 310–325 strikes; conflict is that max pain series is drifting lower (302→295) and spot is 5.3% above longer-dated MP, leaving medium-term downside risk.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 from pre-computed: +GEX concentration (+$176.4M) and net premium +$121.5M support pinning; offset by spot 5.3% above MP and falling MP trend.

Supports: GEX pin at 320.00/322.50, concentrated call buying at 310–325 and net premium +$121.5M.
Conflicts: MP trend falling (302→295) and structural call-OI wall at 340–350 could cap upside.

📌GEX pin cluster +$17.0M at $322.50 (1.3% above spot) creating strong mean-reversion pull

💰Top premium flows net long calls at $310/$315/$320 (~$17.2M/$15.5M/$9.35M) — institutional call skew

⚠️MP is trending lower (302→295 across expirations) — structural pressure below that band

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV overall 41.7% with short-dated ATM IVs lower (1d ATM 31.1%, 4d 24.3%); IV is Normal-to-elevated into May expiries where ATM ~38.7% (5/01).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: concentrated positive GEX near 320–322 (notably +$17.0M at 322.50 and +$14.3M at 320.00) — dealers will hedge to pull spot toward those pins.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$121.5M, P/C vol 0.65 and large call premium at 310–325 indicates buy-call / sell-put skew from institutions.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $318.49 is above near-term MP levels ($310 on 4/13, $302.50 on 4/10) which creates upward short-term pinning but medium-term tension as MP trend is lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and bullish flow persist across multiple near expirations (concentrations at 320/322 and call flows at 310–325) and term-structure shows elevated May IV, supporting a 30–45 DTE tactical window.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$314.36$322.62

GEX magnets at $320.00/$322.50 plus 2d EM $314.36–$322.62; break above $322.62 expands to 325 resistance.

Next 1 week

$314.81$322.16

Weekly max pain $310 on 4/13 will tug, but concentrated call OI near 322.5 resists farther upside; sustained move above $325 invalidates range.

Next 2 weeks

$309.91$327.06

If spot holds >$320 and 22–45 DTE IV stays elevated into May, calls at 325–330 become active; breach below $310 accelerates downside toward MP trend.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $302 (2026-04-10); $310 (2026-04-13); $295 (2026-04-15)

EM guardrails: 2d $314.36/$322.62; 1w $314.81/$322.16

Support: $310.00 · $317.50 · $314.36

Resistance: $320.00 · $322.50 · $325.00

Structural: Call OI wall at $340–$350 caps large structural upside; put floor $200–$215 is long-tail support for multi-month hedgers.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+176.4M

DEX: +75.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Positive near-term gamma concentrated at $320.00 (+$14.3M) and $322.50 (+$17.0M) — dealers will buy on dips and sell into rallies around those strikes; a ±2% move (~$312–$325) will reduce hedging intensity toward the next GEX nodes (310 on downside, 325 on upside).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 41.7% with short-dated ATM IVs lower (1d ATM 31.1%, 4d 24.3%); spot IV cheapness near weeklies vs elevated monthlies (May ATM 38.7%) — event/maturity skew.

Term structure: Front-week IVs low then rises into May (22d 38.7%) → steepening into May; trade calendars/diagonals to capture that premium.

Skew: Long-dated ATM rich vs weeklies; mispriced opportunity: sell higher-IV May and buy lower-IV near-week (reverse calendar) — sell 5/01 315 (~38.7%) buy 4/17 315 (~28.4%) for ~+10.3 vol-pt edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $121.5M bullish; P/C vol 0.65 (call-heavy flow).

Directional prints: 30.4 put 317.5 OTM 4/10 — Large print GOOGL260410P00317500 vol=13,693 vs OI=826 (16.6x) — could be buy-to-open puts or sellers establishing synthetic/hedge; with net call flow overall, more consistent with buy-to-hedge but ambiguous. 26.3 call 315 ITM 4/13 — GOOGL260413C00315000 vol=3,415 vs OI=235 (14.5x) — aggressive call buying into pins; consistent with institutional directional/covered exposure.

Unusual: 35.9 put 310 OTM 4/10 — GOOGL260410P00310000 vol=17,002 vs OI=2,125 (8.0x) — significant protective put flow ahead of expiries; could be buys or roll hedges.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma pull-to-pin fails and spot closes below $310 → dealers unwind hedges and MP trend drives further downside.

!Weekly expiries (4/10, 4/13) concentrate pin risk and can cause intraday whipsaws near 320–322.

!Elevated May IV means vol repricing risk into 5/01; IV spike on macro shock would ruin short-premium positions.

!Structural call-OI at $340–$350 can create stiff resistance if momentum reaches those strikes.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares @ $318.49	Sharp expiry-driven pullbacks to $310–$302 expose equity holders to gamma squeezes.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid naked short given strong positive GEX and dealer pin hedging	Dealer buys on dips and call flow create mean-reversion, making shorts costly.
Covered call	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock + sell 5/01 325 call	Capped upside into 325 with May IV elevated; assignment risk if rally extends.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 315/310 put spread	Put spread vulnerable if pin breaks below $310; delta and IV can spike near expiry.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate	Buy 4/24 325 call or 5/01 325 call (longer-dated preferred)	Time decay and resistance at 325–330; expensive if IV falls post-pin.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/10 317.5 put or 4/13 310/305 bear put (if anticipating MP reversion)	Short-term IV low; buying premium into low-IV weeklies has limited edge unless downside catalyst occurs.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/17 310/305 put x 325/330 call iron-condor	Gamma into weeklies and a breach of $310 or $325 will materially hurt the position.
Calendar / diagonal (reverse calendar)	Strong	Sell 5/01 315 call, buy 4/17 315 call (reverse calendar) — sell ~38.7% IV, buy ~28.4% IV (~+10.3 vol-pt edge)	Selling longer-dated rich IV exposes to directional moves; requires close management of term structure and assignment if short leg becomes ITM.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/01 320 call, buy 2027-03 320 call (diagonal)	Long-dated carry and assignment risk in short leg if rally extends; requires margin/stock ownership.

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar (best vega capture)

Sell 5/01 315 call, buy 4/17 315 call (reverse calendar)

Sells higher-IV May (5/01 ~38.7%) and buys lower-IV near-week (4/17 ~28.4%) capturing ~+10.3 vol-pt edge while using GEX pin to keep price near 318–322.

Credit: $0.30-$0.80

Max loss: Potentially large if long leg expires worthless and short leg remains, but typical risk limited to short-call assignment/roll costs

BE: Depends on calendar mark; monitor relative calendar value

Mgmt: Take 50–70% of max credit when front-week decays; immediately roll or close if spot moves >$8 from 315 or if May IV compresses >6 pts.

Traders who can actively manage term-structure risk and want credit from selling rich May vol.

Sell 4/17 310/305 put spread

High-prob defined-risk short premium inside dealer pin range; benefits from positive GEX hedging and concentrated put OI at 300–312.5.

Credit: $0.12-$0.30

Max loss: $4.88

BE: $309.88

Mgmt: Take 60% of max profit early; cut if spot prints <310 with rising front-week IV or closes below $305.

Accounts wanting short premium with defined risk and exposure to pin holding.

Diagonal (30+ DTE) — conservative bullish

Sell 4/17 320 call, buy 5/15 320 call (regular diagonal)

Uses May richness (5/15 ATM ~35.7%) vs low near-term IV (~28%) to collect premium while keeping upside optionality; longer DTE cushions against weekly pin volatility.

Credit: $0.40-$0.90

Max loss: Difference in strikes if assigned / net premium (limited)

BE: ~320 + net debit/credit outcome

Mgmt: Take 50% profit on short-leg decay; roll short leg up to 325 if spot >322 and IV stable; cut if spot <310.

Traders wanting directional bullish exposure with limited time decay and vega positive longer leg.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds $320.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 4/17 310/305 put spread

IFIf spot pins between $317.50–$322.50 into daily close → Sell 5/01 315 call and buy 4/17 315 call (reverse calendar)

IFIf spot rallies and closes >$325.00 on daily basis → Initiate covered-call by buying stock and selling 5/01 330 call or sell 4/17 325 call

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $305.00 (daily) or front-week IV >45% → Exit short premium positions immediately

EXITIf any single top-play reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profits and remove short-week leg to de-risk

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers & flow pin price into 320–322 in near term — favors selling richer May vol vs buying cheaper near-week (reverse calendar) and defined short put spreads; invalidation is a daily close below $310 which removes pin support and favors directional downside trades. Top plays: reverse calendar (sell 5/01/315 buy 4/17/315), 310/305 put spread (defined short premium), and 4/17→5/15 diagonal at 320 (30+ DTE directional).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.