base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 VIX 17; override: Low premium-selling favorability due to extreme put skew and short gamma
Term structure: Extreme put skew 2DTE (191%); term structure downward sloping 2W-1M, then stable
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-42.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,320 (11.7% below spot)
OI concentrations: Call wall $39-$41; Put floor $32-$34; Gamma flip $32
#1Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $36.50 call / buy 2026-10-16 $41.00 call
Sells near-term call at $36.50, buys long-dated $41 call. Captures elevated IV while limiting upside risk.
Mgmt: Exit if spot drops below $36; roll if IV spike subsides. Monitor short gamma impact. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (64%).
#2Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $38.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $39.00 call
Sells $38 call, buys $39 call. Benefits from front-month IV decay if spot stays near $36-$37.
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks $36; adjust strikes if IV shifts. Beware liquidity. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (72%).; long_call: Volume below 5.
!Near-dated put IV spike (191%) tail risk
!Dealer short gamma (-$42.2M) may intensify swings
!Spot below max pain, pin risk to $36