base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.4% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Front-week skew steep; 2–6 week term shows elevated tails but mixed levels beyond 4w.
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+84.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$37.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 179,263 (1.6% below spot)
OI concentrations: Puts clustered $35–$36 (179,263 OI, ~1.6% below spot) concentrated in short-dated expiries.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $37.00/$35.00 put spread
Sell 2026-05-15 37/35 put spread to collect skewed premium with defined risk.
Mgmt: Close or roll if FXI nears 37, IV spikes, or sustained break <36.
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $37.00/$35.00 put wing and $39.00/$40.00 call wing
Sell 2026-05-22 37/35 put wing and 39/40 call wing to harvest elevated wing IVs.
Mgmt: Widen, hedge or unwind if price breaches wings or IV term structure blows out. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (57%).; long_put: Wide spread (79%).; long_call: Wide spread (55%).
#3Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-05-15 $37.00 cash-secured put
Sell 2026-05-15 37 cash-secured put to monetize short-dated put skew.
Mgmt: Monitor for early assignment; close if spot drifts toward 37 or IV spikes.
!Early assignment risk on short puts
!Near-expiry gamma pinch / upcoming expiries or earnings
!VIX spike / IV term blowout
!Directional move >4% from max pain
!Dealer flow reversal (GEX turns negative)