base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 VIX 17; override: GEX/flow strongly aligned + VIX 17 boosts confidence.
Term structure: Term structure steeply backwardated: near-term IV high (28.8%) dropping to ~22-23% at 1-2 weeks, then rising slightly. Front-end volatility compression expected.
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Trending ($-141.1M)
Gamma flip: ~$32.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 126,420 (10.5% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI 126,420 (10.5% below spot) at $32-$32 region; Call OI wall $38-$41. Max pain $36.
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-18 $34.00/$33.00 put wing and $37.50/$39.00 call wing
Sells OTM put and call wings to profit from time decay and IV contraction.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if spot breaks $34 or $38. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.; long_put: Wide spread (61%).; short_call: Volume below 5.
#2Call credit spread
Sell 2026-06-18 $37.00/$38.50 call spread
Sells upside calls to profit from limited upside or decline.
Mgmt: Exit if spot approaches $36.5; roll up if resistance holds. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
!Short gamma environment ($-141M GEX) – dealers hedge directionally, risk of acceleration if spot breaks key levels.
!High put-to-call volume ratio (2.77) – bearish sentiment may create squeeze if spot stabilizes.