thetaOwl

FXI

iShares China Large-Cap ETFClose $35.05EOD only
Max Pain
$35.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.77
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-0.05
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects FXI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
FXI Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put credit spreads (30–45 DTE) near the $35–$37 pin / support cluster
Invalidation: Close below $35.00 (breach of put floor / near-term EM lower bound and transition away from pinning)
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5.5 (provided); +0.5 for strong positive GEX pinning; -0.5 mixed flow but overall neutral; +0.0 VIX 18.36 already factored

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 28.9% vs VIX 18.36 — underlying IV is richer than VIX but within a normal range for this ETF
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term ATM IVs: 3d 24.8%, 10d 23.4%, 17d 23.3% with a modest lift into the 31d (25.2%) and a wider bump at 45d (28.7%) — mild term skew that favors selling short-to-intermediate DTE

💰Avg IV 28.9% with 10–30d ATM ~23% — acceptable theta for sellers without extreme IV crush risk
🧲Large GEX (+$159.5M) concentrates around $37 and $36 which strengthens pinning and helps defined-credit setups

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $36.89 is above max pain levels ($36 on 4/17 and $37 on 4/24) — current spot sits between the two nearest MPs (Above per pre-computed fields).

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$159.5M; concentrated +$202.3M GEX at $37.00)

Gamma flip: ~$32.00Gamma flip near ~$32 — below this dealers lose long-gamma protection and downside acceleration can occur; current spot is ~15% above flip

OI concentrations: Largest OI: $37 put 152,503 OI and $36 put 117,509 OI; call walls at $40 (125,636 OI) and call cluster at $37 (88,995 OI). Strong put OI cluster $32-$37 (notably $32.00 OI=124,267) — creates a put floor and pinning around mid-$30s.

Verdict: Favorable — pinning and large positive GEX near $36–$37 supports premium sellers (puts/put-spreads) and makes short strikes sticky; defined-risk spreads benefit from dealer hedging magnets.

Premium Opportunities

#1
put spread
Sell 36/34 put spread 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
31 DTE sits at the small IV bump (ATM 25.2%). Strong GEX + put OI at 36/35 and max pain near $36–$37 make the short 36 put likely to be supported. Defined risk keeps assignment pain limited.
Credit: $0.80-$1.10
Max loss: $1.20
BE: $35.20
Mgmt: Take profits at 60–70% of max credit; roll down 1–2 strikes or wider if price trades <$36.00; close/buy to close if price closes below $35.00 or if IV spikes >+8 pts vs entry.
#2
cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell 35 put 2026-05-22 (38 DTE) cash-secured
38 DTE gives more theta and sits inside the put floor cluster (OI concentration at $35 and $34). Positive GEX and MP flatness (~$36) give a decent chance the short put expires worthless or can be managed into shares at an attractive basis.
Credit: $0.95-$1.25
Max loss: unlimited down to 0 (ownership at 35) — effective max loss = spot - 35 - credit collected
BE: $34.05
Mgmt: Close at 50–60% profit; if FXI closes below $35.00, consider rolling down-and-out or converting to a 35/33 put spread; cut losses (buy back) if price breaks below $34.00 or if a multi-day breach of the 1w EM lower bound ($35.83) occurs.
#3
iron condor (defined-risk wings)
Sell 36/34 put and 40/42 call iron condor 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)
45 DTE captures elevated wings (45d ATM IV ~28.7%) and uses the call OI wall around $40 as resistance. Pinning near $37 supports the short put side; defined-risk on calls protects against breakout to the upside.
Credit: $0.95-$1.40
Max loss: $3.05
BE: 32.95 / 41.05
Mgmt: Take profit at 40–50% of max credit; tighten or close if FXI trades within $0.50 of either short strike; exit the entire condor if price closes below $35.00 or above $41.00 for two consecutive sessions.
#4
covered call (income vs stock)
Buy 100 shares and sell 37.50 call 2026-04-24 (10 DTE) weekly
Short-dated call monetizes shares near the $37 pin; low premium but very high probability OTM given pinning. Suitable for investors already willing to own FXI or for rolling into further income trades.
Credit: $0.10-$0.20
Max loss: stock downside — mitigated by credit; effective max loss large (stock basis less downside)
BE: $36.79
Mgmt: Close/roll if shares gap above $38.00 or if assigned early before an ex-dividend (none provided); take profit on call premium at 75% decay or roll out if wanting continued coverage.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip near ~$32 — a sustained break below this level would accelerate downside and invalidate bullish pin thesis for sellers.
!Max pain near-term is $36 (4/17) and $37 (4/24) — sudden, large directional flow that overwhelms dealer hedging can still push price through pins; monitor daily net premium and big block trades.
!Unusual put heavy premium flow: top premium flow shows large net put buys at $39 (Net -$4,708,752) — institutions buying protection can change short-delta dynamics and raise put-side pain if aggressive.
!VIX is low-ish (18.36) and ATM IVs ~23% for 10–30d — limited room for IV expansion; selling premium is OK but avoid naked short risk near earnings or other catalysts (no earnings data provided here).
!No earnings or ex-dividend data in the feed — absence noted; never sell naked through earnings if an earnings date exists outside this data.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.