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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $142.52EOD only
Max Pain
$167.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.80
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+24.98
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

34-day setup with low beat rate, bearish flow, and elevated IV. Heavy call buying today suggests pin action near $150.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Low historical beat rate (40%) and net put premium flow.
📊Call volumes surge at $150 strike 8x OI expiring today — pinned?
⚠️Net premium negative $69.7M; put flow dominates — bearish skew

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bearish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,509 (16.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (34 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$10.78 (7.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$15.80 (10.6%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$19.83 (13.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango, steep out to 21d ±13.3%

Crush estimate: Moderate post-event crush; 10-20% IV contraction expected

Skew: Put skew elevated; bearish flow adds premium to downside

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available, but beat rate 40% suggests downside risk

Directional bias: Mixed; bearish flow, low beat rate

Key Levels

1$125.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $138.28/$159.83
3Max pain pins: $158 (2026-06-26); $150 (2026-07-02); $155 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Aggressive call buying in $146-$150 strikes expiring today; vol/OI ratios >6

Traders positioning for upside pin near $150 at expiration

Net premium -$69.7M with put volume > call volume (1.25 ratio)

Bearish flow dominates; hedges or directional puts

Strategies

Iron Condor on COIN
Sell 2026-07-31 $145.00/$140.00 put wing and $155.00/$160.00 call wing
Credit: $3.49-$4.26
Max loss: $0.74
Max gain: $4.26
BE: 140.74 / 159.26
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if breaks $140 or $155.
Only eligible candidate; low beat rate and bearish flow support range-bound trade with IV crush.
Outperforms: Sells wings around $140-$145 put and $155-$160 call, capturing premium from low volatility expectation.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (40%)
!Bearish flow and negative net premium
!Broad market weakness (SPY/QQQ down)
!High IV environment (VIX 18.4)

What to Watch

?Earnings on 2026-07-30
?BTC/ETH price action
?Regulatory developments
?Key resistance at $155-$160, support at $133
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.