thetaOwl
HomeOptionsCOINReports

COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $163.26EOD only
Max Pain
$175.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.45
7.6% from close
Price Gap
+11.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

COIN reports Jul 30. IV elevated with term structure steep. Flow mixed with large call buys and OTM put activity. Historical beat rate low (40%). Expect earnings-driven volatility.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16; override: base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +1 VIX 16
Most important: Potential pinning at max pain $165-$175; spot ~$163. Watch for bitcoin correlation and regulatory news.
📉Put skew elevated: deep OTM puts (e.g., $230P) trade at extreme IVs, reflecting tail risk hedging.
💰Large call buying 8/16 $172.5 and $167.5 suggests bullish conviction before earnings.
⚠️Historical beat rate 40%: COIN often disappoints; manage directional exposure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (23.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (42 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (8d): ±$12.45 (7.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (14d): ±$16.85 (10.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (22d): ±$20.85 (12.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: 8d ±7.6%, 14d ±10.3%, 22d ±12.8%

Crush estimate: Moderate to large post-event crush (likely 40-60% of pre-IV)

Skew: Put skew elevated at tails (OTM puts >100% IV), reflecting downside hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Average move slightly below implied (beat rate 40% suggests frequent misses)

Directional bias: No clear bias; 2 beats, 3 misses in last 5

Key Levels

1$125.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $150.81/$175.71
3Max pain pins: $165 (2026-06-18); $175 (2026-06-26); $165 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call activity: COIN 8/16 $172.5C (16.7x vol/OI) and $167.5C (13.9x).

Large bullish bets targeting upside to $170+ post-earnings.

High vol/OI puts: 8/16 $162.5P (9.4x) and 8/16 $115P (8.4x).

Hedging or bearish speculation on near-term downside, especially deep OTM.

Strategies

Earnings Straddle
Buy 2026-06-26 $165.00 put + buy $165.00 call
Debit: $11.36-$13.89
Max loss: $13.89
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 151.11 / 178.89
Trigger: Manage risk by delta-hedging or closing before earnings if IV crush expected.
Elevated IV and no clear directional bias; straddle captures large move.
Outperforms: Buys both call and put to profit from volatile move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Earnings Strangle
Buy 2026-06-26 $157.50 put + buy $172.50 call
Debit: $5.94-$7.25
Max loss: $7.25
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 150.25 / 179.75
Trigger: Set stop-loss to max loss; adjust strikes if spot drifts.
Lower cost but requires bigger move; suitable for high vol.
Outperforms: Out-of-the-money options to profit from extreme move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Bitcoin price correlation: COIN moves with BTC; BTC vol adds risk.
!Regulatory headline risk: SEC or CFTC actions could cause gap moves.
!Earnings miss history: 60% miss rate in last 5 quarters.

What to Watch

?Weekly $165-175 call walls for pinning.
?Put OI concentration at $90-125 for structural support.
?Gamma flip level at $125 (heavy put OI).
?Bitcoin price and volatility around Aug 16 expiry.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.