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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $164.84EOD only
Max Pain
$167.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.75
6.5% from close
Price Gap
+2.66
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.91
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

COIN earnings 7/30; low 40% beat rate, elevated IV, bullish call flow, but market headwinds.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 5.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Watch for crypto catalysts confirming call flow.
🔼Aggressive call buying on 7/2 $165-172.5 strikes
⚠️Low 40% beat rate over last 5 quarters
📊IV backwardation suggests front-end elevated

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,509 (21.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (37 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$8.90 (5.6%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$13.75 (8.7%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$18.38 (11.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Backwardated front-end ~65% IV, longer-dated 70-85%

Crush estimate: Expected ~50-60% post-earnings

Skew: Slight negative skew; puts elevated, deep OTM put floor $90-125

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A, limited history (5 quarters)

Directional bias: Slight bearish: 40% beat rate, negative market backdrop

Key Levels

1$125.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $149.28/$167.08; 1w $144.43/$171.93
3Max pain pins: $168 (2026-06-26); $165 (2026-07-02); $165 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large call buys on 7/2 $165-172.5 strikes, heavy volume

Bullish positioning into early July, possibly anticipating crypto catalyst

Deep OTM $5 put (12/18) with 3k+ vol

Hedge or financing trade, not directional

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-26 $140.00/$139.00 put wing and $160.00/$162.50 call wing
Credit: $0.86-$1.06
Max loss: $1.44
Max gain: $1.06
BE: 138.94 / 161.06
Trigger: Manage at 50% max gain or if underlying breaches short strikes.
High IV, low beat rate, call wall at $175-200, defines risk while collecting premium.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call spreads to profit from range-bound price and IV contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $160.00 call / buy 2026-07-02 $160.00 call
Debit: $2.25-$2.75
Max loss: $2.75
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor call wall; exit if underlying breaks above $175.
Slight bearish bias, call wall at $175-200; sell high IV, own cheaper back-month call for downside.
Outperforms: Sell short-term call, buy longer-term call to profit from IV crush and time decay.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-06-26 $160.00 call / buy 2026-07-02 $160.00 call
Debit: $2.25-$2.75
Max loss: $2.75
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if underlying approaches short strike or IV spreads narrow.
Front IV ~66% will crush, back IV ~72% holds better; net debit benefits from differential decay.
Outperforms: Same setup as CD_01 but neutral bias.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Tail risk from crypto correlation
!Low beat rate (40%) increases downside risk
!Call wall $175-200 may cap upside

What to Watch

?BTC/ETH price action
?Volume on 7/2 call strikes
?Gamma flip at $125
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.