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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $163.26EOD only
Max Pain
$175.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.45
7.6% from close
Price Gap
+11.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.73
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High vol regime, gamma pinning near $165-$168, mixed flow with heavy call buying but negative net premium. Historical beat rate low at 40%.

Confidence:
0 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.6% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Gamma pinning around $165-$168 may limit near-term moves despite high IV.
📊COIN high IV (70-80%) with steep term structure; expected moves grow from 6.5% to 12.1% in 3 weeks.
💡Call buying concentrated at $195 (6/26) and $180/$190 (7/2) — traders leaning bullish above resistance.
⚠️Historical beat rate only 40%; low conviction on direction.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,515 (24.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (38 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (4d): ±$10.75 (6.5%)
  • 2026-07-02 (10d): ±$15.22 (9.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (18d): ±$19.88 (12.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep upward slope; front-week IV ~75-80%, back-week ~70%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush ~40-50% from current levels.

Skew: Call skew elevated on heavy OTM call buying; put skew moderate.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Past 5 earnings: avg move ~8% vs expected 6.5%.

Directional bias: Mixed; 2 up, 3 down, no clear trend.

Key Levels

1$125.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $149.61/$180.06
3Max pain pins: $168 (2026-06-26); $165 (2026-07-02); $160 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buying at $195 strike expiring 6/26 (5,503 contracts, vol/OI 8.9).

Speculative bullish bet expecting upside breakout before earnings.

Aggressive call buying at $180 and $190 strikes for 7/2 expiration.

Positioning for earnings move higher, stacking calls above resistance.

Unusual OTM put buys: $5 and $70 strikes with high IV.

Tail hedges or lottery bets; not directional conviction.

Strategies

Earnings Iron Condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $155.00/$150.00 put wing and $165.00/$185.00 call wing
Credit: $8.75-$10.70
Max loss: $9.30
Max gain: $10.70
BE: 144.30 / 175.70
Trigger: Close before earnings or at 50% max gain.
High IV and expected crush make premium selling attractive; defined risk and low expected move.
Outperforms: Sells wings around expected move to capture premium.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV implies large premium cost; crush risk post-event.
!Gamma pinning around max pain may cause sharp reversals.
!Negative net premium suggests institutional selling pressure.
!Low beat rate adds uncertainty.

What to Watch

?Spot action relative to $165-$168 pinning zone.
?Volatility of crypto markets (BTC/ETH) as COIN proxy.
?Open interest changes in $175-$240 call wall.
?Unusual put flow for tail risk hedges.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.