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COIN

Coinbase Global, Inc.Close $193.56EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.59
2.9% from close
Price Gap
-1.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects COIN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
COIN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

COIN low beat rate (40%) but strong near-term call flow. Earnings 69 days away; IV term structure slopes upward.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 3.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Monitor BTC price and regulatory news; call OI wall at $190-$250 suggests bullish sentiment but risk of reversal.
🚨Large $340 put (IV 144.8%) for June 18 suggests downside hedge or speculation.
📈Call OI wall $190-$250; bullish flow near term.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (69 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$11.80 (6.4%)
  • 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$17.95 (9.7%)
  • 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$22.10 (11.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; 21d IV ~60% from expected moves.

Crush estimate: Moderate; 69d to event, post-earnings crush could be 20-30%.

Skew: Skew steep on deep OTM puts (e.g., $135 put IV 92.6%).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 40% (2/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 40% suggests stock may disappoint vs expectations.

Directional bias: Mixed; 2 beats, 3 misses.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $173.19/$196.79
2Max pain pins: $192 (2026-05-22); $192 (2026-05-29); $185 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume at $190, $195 strikes for May 29; 8,127 vols at $195 call.

Bullish near-term positioning, possibly anticipating a bounce.

Large put purchase at $340 for June 18 (IV 144.8%).

Likely a hedge or speculative bet on significant downside.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $185.00 put + sell $200.00 call
Credit: $28.17-$34.43
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $34.43
BE: 150.57 / 234.43
Trigger: Monitor BTC/Crypto risk; close if stock breaks $167-$200 range
Only eligible candidate; upward IV term structure and mixed beat rate favor premium sale
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to collect premium from range-bound stock
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Earnings 69 days away; long-dated options subject to time decay and volatility shifts.
!Crypto correlation; sharp moves in BTC could impact COIN disproportionately.
!Low historical beat rate; potential for negative surprise.

What to Watch

?BTC price action and regulatory headlines.
?COIN stock behavior around $190 resistance and $167 support.
?IV changes as earnings approach; watch for skew flattening.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.