base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Term structure: Front-end put skew extreme (1DTE put IV 145%); term structure backwardation then contango.
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+217.3M)
Gamma flip: ~$47.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 104,987 (16.9% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain $52/$54; high OI at $52 and $54.
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $54.00/$53.00 put spread
Sell $54/$53 put spread to collect premium with defined risk, capitalizing on elevated volatility and steep put skew.
Mgmt: Manage if spot approaches $54; consider closing early. Set stop at invalidation $54.43.
#2Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-07-24 $54.00 cash-secured put
Sell $54 put, collecting premium with obligation to buy at $54 if assigned. Benefits from elevated IV.
Mgmt: If spot falls below $54, be prepared to buy shares. Roll or close if invalidation level breaks.
#3Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $54.00/$53.00 put wing and $57.00/$58.00 call wing
Sell $54/$53 put and $57/$58 call wings, profiting if spot stays between $54-$57. Uses elevated IV for premium.
Mgmt: Adjust wings if spot approaches boundaries. Exit early if pin drift accelerates.
!Earnings risk on 1DTE expiration
!Steep put skew on short-dated options
!Spot $56.55 vs max pain $52