base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Very steep short-dated put skew (1–4w) and mildly elevated mid-dated curve
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+456.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$47.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 51,769 (12.8% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~51,769 (~12.8% below spot); max-pain at $51/$52 across weeklies
#1PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-09-18 $55.00 call + sell 2026-06-18 $60.00 call
Own long 9/18 $55 call and sell 6/18 $60 call to collect near-term premium while limiting downside vs stock ownership.
Mgmt: Roll short calls after earnings if IV collapses; cut if spot <51.85 or VIX spikes >25.
#2Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-18 $57.50 call / buy 2026-07-17 $60.00 call
Sell 6/18 $57.50 / buy 7/17 $60 to collect short-dated premium with some upside cover across earnings.
Mgmt: Manage if spot >55 (invalidate) or spot <51.85; consider rolling short leg wider or later-dated long.
#3Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $57.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $55.00 call
Sell 5/29 $57 / buy 9/18 $55 to monetize skew while keeping long-duration upside.
Mgmt: Close or roll short leg before pin risk windows; cut if spot <51.85 or IV regime shifts.
!Accelerated move below $50 undermines thesis
!VIX spike >25 or dealer de-grossing reduces premium cushion
!Assignment risk for short-dated sellers at $51–$52
!Overnight gap risk can produce large losses versus collected premium
!Margin/capital strain if underlying pins near strike causing concentrated short positions