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ASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Close $88.10EOD only

Max Pain

$80.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.15

9.3% from close

Price Gap

-8.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.35

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASTS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

ASTS Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 significant bearish premium flow; +1 P/C OI ratio suggests put-heavy positioning; -1 high IV regime can distort flow; -0.5 spot below max pain but near-term MP at $82

Watch next session: $85 Put OI accumulation for 4/10 & 5/15; Spot reaction near $80 gamma flip level

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$10.6M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.75 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.46 — significant call-heavy OI positioning

Flow shows a clear bearish tilt with net premium outflow, driven by large put purchases at the $85 strike. However, the open interest structure is heavily call-weighted, indicating a potential long-term bullish bias that is being hedged with near-term downside protection.

Notable Prints

ASTS 5/15/26 $85 Put

Vol: 10,444

OI: 1,291

Vol/OI: 8.1x

IV: 96.9%

Notional: ~$8.7M (10,444 * $0.835 avg premium est.)

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or large-scale hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold as part of a spread/collar (neutral/bullish hedge)

Read-through: This is the dominant flow of the day. The size and 8x OI build at a near-the-money strike 45 DTE suggests a meaningful bearish bet or a significant hedge against existing long exposure. The IV of 97% is high but not extreme for ASTS, indicating it's likely a purchase.

ASTS 4/10/26 $55 Put

Vol: 2,428

OI: 216

Vol/OI: 11.2x

IV: 143.0%

Notional: ~$0.36M (2,428 * $0.15 avg premium est.)

Intent: Lottery ticket / tail-risk purchase

Dual read: Bought (bearish speculation) or sold for premium (bullish/neutral)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (143%) and deep OTM strike suggest this is a low-cost, high-leverage bet on a major drop. The notional value is small relative to the $85P flow, marking it as speculative noise rather than core positioning.

ASTS 4/10/26 $85 Put

Vol: 1,285

OI: 437

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 81.0%

Notional: ~$1.0M (1,285 * $0.78 avg premium est.)

Intent: Near-term hedge or directional bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/neutral)

Read-through: Complements the larger 5/15 $85P position. This could be part of a calendar put spread (selling near-term, buying longer-dated) or layered hedging. The lower IV (81%) vs. the 5/15 put suggests it might be a sale, but the net premium flow at $85 is heavily negative, pointing to buys.

ASTS 4/2/26 $87 Call

Vol: 1,476

OI: 688

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 115.5%

Notional: ~$0.44M (1,476 * $0.30 avg premium est.)

Intent: Short-dated upside speculation or delta hedge

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold against stock (covered call)

Read-through: With spot at $82.87, this is a near-term OTM bet. High IV suggests expensive premium. Given the overwhelming bearish premium flow elsewhere, this is more likely a tactical, short-dated play or a hedge closure rather than a core bullish signal.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term call flow. Long-dated OI is heavily concentrated in $100, $120, $150 calls (10K+ OI each), suggesting a long-term bullish outlook is already positioned.

Put additions: Significant put flow at $85 across multiple expirations (4/10, 5/15). This is the dominant new positioning, acting as a hedge or direct bearish bet against the $80-$85 zone.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially consistent. Positive GEX (+$9.8M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting forces near spot, which aligns with heavy OI at $80 Put (10,594) and $90 Call (8,565). However, the bearish flow is pushing against this pin.

OI clusters: Major Call Walls: $90 (8.6K OI), $100 (11.4K), $120 (10.8K), $150 (23K combined). Major Put Walls: $80 (10.6K OI), $75 (7.6K OI). Creates a likely near-term range between $80 (put support) and $90 (call resistance).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of hedging. The massive $85 put flow across April and May, against a backdrop of enormous long-dated call OI, fits a profile of institutions protecting long-term bullish exposure from near-term downside.

Max pain context: Spot ($82.87) is below the near-term max pain cluster ($87-$90 for most expiries) but aligned with the 4/2 MP of $82. This creates a tug-of-war, with gamma pinning (positive GEX) pulling toward $82-$85, while bearish flow targets a break below $80.

Signal vs Noise

~The $55 Put (4/10) with 143% IV is noise – a low-cost lottery ticket, not meaningful institutional positioning.

~High-volume calls at $87-$89 (4/2) are likely short-dated scalps or delta adjustments in a high-vol name, not a reversal of the core bearish flow thesis.

~The $130 Put (4/17) with 0% IV is a data error or extremely illiquid trade; ignore.

~Much of the long-dated OI (e.g., $150 Calls) is legacy positioning from lower price levels, not indicative of current flow.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Core Flow Bearish, Structure Bullish: New money is buying puts ($85), but the OI skeleton is built on long-dated calls.

🛡️Hedging Dominates: The $85 put flow is best interpreted as protection for existing long exposure, not a outright short.

📌Gamma Pinning vs. Flow: Positive GEX supports a range ($80-$90), but bearish flow tests the lower bound. Watch $80 gamma flip level.

🎯Key Zone: $80-$85. Break below $80 invalidates pinning and confirms bearish flow. Hold above $85 allows bulls to regroup.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.