ASTS Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 significant bearish premium flow; +1 P/C OI ratio suggests put-heavy positioning; -1 high IV regime can distort flow; -0.5 spot below max pain but near-term MP at $82

Watch next session: $85 Put OI accumulation for 4/10 & 5/15; Spot reaction near $80 gamma flip level

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$10.6M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.75 — moderate put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.46 — significant call-heavy OI positioning

Flow shows a clear bearish tilt with net premium outflow, driven by large put purchases at the $85 strike. However, the open interest structure is heavily call-weighted, indicating a potential long-term bullish bias that is being hedged with near-term downside protection.

Notable Prints

ASTS 5/15/26 $85 Put

Vol: 10,444

OI: 1,291

Vol/OI: 8.1x

IV: 96.9%

Notional: ~$8.7M (10,444 * $0.835 avg premium est.)

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or large-scale hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold as part of a spread/collar (neutral/bullish hedge)

Read-through: This is the dominant flow of the day. The size and 8x OI build at a near-the-money strike 45 DTE suggests a meaningful bearish bet or a significant hedge against existing long exposure. The IV of 97% is high but not extreme for ASTS, indicating it's likely a purchase.

ASTS 4/10/26 $55 Put

Vol: 2,428

OI: 216

Vol/OI: 11.2x

IV: 143.0%

Notional: ~$0.36M (2,428 * $0.15 avg premium est.)

Intent: Lottery ticket / tail-risk purchase

Dual read: Bought (bearish speculation) or sold for premium (bullish/neutral)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (143%) and deep OTM strike suggest this is a low-cost, high-leverage bet on a major drop. The notional value is small relative to the $85P flow, marking it as speculative noise rather than core positioning.

ASTS 4/10/26 $85 Put

Vol: 1,285

OI: 437

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 81.0%

Notional: ~$1.0M (1,285 * $0.78 avg premium est.)

Intent: Near-term hedge or directional bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/neutral)

Read-through: Complements the larger 5/15 $85P position. This could be part of a calendar put spread (selling near-term, buying longer-dated) or layered hedging. The lower IV (81%) vs. the 5/15 put suggests it might be a sale, but the net premium flow at $85 is heavily negative, pointing to buys.

ASTS 4/2/26 $87 Call

Vol: 1,476

OI: 688

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 115.5%

Notional: ~$0.44M (1,476 * $0.30 avg premium est.)

Intent: Short-dated upside speculation or delta hedge

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold against stock (covered call)

Read-through: With spot at $82.87, this is a near-term OTM bet. High IV suggests expensive premium. Given the overwhelming bearish premium flow elsewhere, this is more likely a tactical, short-dated play or a hedge closure rather than a core bullish signal.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term call flow. Long-dated OI is heavily concentrated in $100, $120, $150 calls (10K+ OI each), suggesting a long-term bullish outlook is already positioned.

Put additions: Significant put flow at $85 across multiple expirations (4/10, 5/15). This is the dominant new positioning, acting as a hedge or direct bearish bet against the $80-$85 zone.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially consistent. Positive GEX (+$9.8M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting forces near spot, which aligns with heavy OI at $80 Put (10,594) and $90 Call (8,565). However, the bearish flow is pushing against this pin.

OI clusters: Major Call Walls: $90 (8.6K OI), $100 (11.4K), $120 (10.8K), $150 (23K combined). Major Put Walls: $80 (10.6K OI), $75 (7.6K OI). Creates a likely near-term range between $80 (put support) and $90 (call resistance).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of hedging. The massive $85 put flow across April and May, against a backdrop of enormous long-dated call OI, fits a profile of institutions protecting long-term bullish exposure from near-term downside.

Max pain context: Spot ($82.87) is below the near-term max pain cluster ($87-$90 for most expiries) but aligned with the 4/2 MP of $82. This creates a tug-of-war, with gamma pinning (positive GEX) pulling toward $82-$85, while bearish flow targets a break below $80.

Signal vs Noise

~The $55 Put (4/10) with 143% IV is noise – a low-cost lottery ticket, not meaningful institutional positioning.

~High-volume calls at $87-$89 (4/2) are likely short-dated scalps or delta adjustments in a high-vol name, not a reversal of the core bearish flow thesis.

~The $130 Put (4/17) with 0% IV is a data error or extremely illiquid trade; ignore.

~Much of the long-dated OI (e.g., $150 Calls) is legacy positioning from lower price levels, not indicative of current flow.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Core Flow Bearish, Structure Bullish: New money is buying puts ($85), but the OI skeleton is built on long-dated calls.

🛡️Hedging Dominates: The $85 put flow is best interpreted as protection for existing long exposure, not a outright short.

📌Gamma Pinning vs. Flow: Positive GEX supports a range ($80-$90), but bearish flow tests the lower bound. Watch $80 gamma flip level.

🎯Key Zone: $80-$85. Break below $80 invalidates pinning and confirms bearish flow. Hold above $85 allows bulls to regroup.

Read the Flow analysis for ASTS. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.