base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 strong pinning regime; +1 defined-risk opportunities; -2 low liquidity & high volatility risk
Term structure: Relatively flat between 99-106% from 10 to 45 DTE, hump at 24 DTE (105.1%).
Spot vs MP: Spot $82.87 is 7.9% below near-term max pain of $90 (3/27).
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$9.8M)
Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Gamma flip estimated near $80, below which dealer hedging could accelerate selling.
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall: $80 (OI: 10,594). Major Call Walls: $90 (OI: 8,565), $100 (OI: 11,445), $150 (OI: ~23k combined).
#1put spread
Sell $80/$75 Put Spread exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Sells high IV (105.6%) while defining risk at the major $80 OI support and the estimated gamma flip level. The 45 DTE captures robust theta decay. Credit represents ~32% of spread width.
Mgmt: Manage at 65% max profit (~$1.30 credit retained). Exit if spot closes below $78.50 (below short strike + half credit). Roll only if IV remains >90% and spot is above $79.
#2iron condor
Sell $75/$70 Put Spread & $95/$100 Call Spread exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Capitalizes on pinning between the $80 put wall and $90/$100 call walls. 31 DTE IV is 102.6%. Expected move ($19.95) places breakevens well outside its range, offering a high probability of success. Defined risk on both sides.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. If one side is tested (spot <$77 or >$93), consider closing that spread for a loss and letting the other side run. Exit entire position if spot breaches $70 or $100.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $75 Put exp 2026-06-18 (79 DTE)
For accounts willing to take assignment. Sells still-high IV (102%) at a longer duration, collecting massive premium ($11.50+). Strike is $5 below the key $80 support, providing a significant buffer (9.5% below spot).
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if spot approaches $77. Be prepared to accept assignment at a $63.50 effective cost basis. Close at 80% profit if possible before expiration.
#4call credit spread
Sell $95/$100 Call Spread exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Shorter-term play on resistance at the $90-$100 call wall cluster, with spot well below. High IV (100.7%) and positive GEX support a ceiling. Targets quick theta decay in a pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit or with 5 DTE remaining. Exit immediately if spot closes above $93 (call wall break).
!Extreme IV (>100%): While great for premium, it signals high expected volatility. Position size must account for wide potential swings.
!Gamma Flip ~$80: A break below this level could trigger accelerated selling due to dealer hedging. This is the line in the sand for all put credit positions.
!Low Liquidity Warning: Volume (90k) and OI (676k) are low relative to mega-caps. Slippage on entry/exit may be higher. Use limit orders.
!Earnings 2026-05-11 (~41 days out): IV will remain elevated but is not purely earnings-driven given the term structure. Plan to close or roll positions well before the announcement.
!Net Premium Flow Negative (-$10.6M): Indicates more money spent opening puts than calls. This could be hedging or a bearish directional bet, adding a slight negative bias to be aware of.
!Unusual Put Activity: Large block in $85 Puts for 5/15 (10,444 volume). Monitor for follow-through selling pressure.