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ASTS

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Close $88.10EOD only

Max Pain

$80.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.15

9.3% from close

Price Gap

-8.10

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.35

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASTS options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

ASTS Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong pinning force near $80-$82, but underlying structural weakness. Confidence: 4/10. The market is trapped between a near-term gamma pin and a longer-term downward drift in max pain, with heavy put flow creating a negative premium bias.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict (bullish pin vs bearish flow); -1 spot 7.9% from MP ($90); +0 no quality penalty.

Supports: GEX +$9.8M (strong pinning), Gamma flip at $80 (support), P/C OI 0.46 (call-heavy structure).
Conflicts: Net premium -$10.6M (bearish), Spot below all near-term max pain levels, MP trend falling long-term.

📌Strong gamma pin at $80-$82 conflicts with bearish institutional flow.

📉Max pain ladder descends from $90 to $60 by June — a structural bearish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 112% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if you can manage tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$9.8M concentrated near $80 — creates a powerful magnet and pinning behavior.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium bearish (-$10.6M) but P/C volume 0.75 shows recent put buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($82.87) is below all near-term max pain levels ($90, $82, $87) — gravity is upward short-term, but the long-term MP trend is down.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Gamma pin is strong for the 4/2 expiry, but the falling max pain ladder and persistent high IV suggest a bearish drift regime will reassert over the next 2-4 weeks after the near-term pin resolves.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$77.63$88.12

Gamma pin dominates; break below $80 triggers accelerated selling.

Next 1 week

$71.87$93.87

Pin release after 4/2, flow and MP trend favor test of $75 support.

Next 2 weeks

$68.32$97.42

Structural put OI at $75, falling MP, and high IV allow for larger moves.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $90 (2026-03-27); $82 (2026-04-02); $87 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $77.63/$88.12; 1w $71.87/$93.87

Support: $80.00 · $75.00

Resistance: $150.00 · $100.00 · $150.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,594

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $90, $100, $120, $150 cap rallies. Put floor at $75 is the next major support; break targets $60 (June MP).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+9.8M

DEX: +26.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 10,594)

NTM gamma: Positive gamma peaks near $80 (10,594 put OI). Dealers are long gamma here, suppressing volatility. A move below $80 flips them short gamma, accelerating moves lower.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 112% — astronomically high vs any broad market VIX. All options are extremely rich, giving a massive edge to premium sellers who can define risk.

Term structure: Inverted near-term (102.7% 2d > 99.0% 10d), then humped (105% in April). High volatility priced for the pin resolution and potential breakdown.

Skew: Extreme skew toward puts is priced in. The ~4 vol-point drop from 4/2 to 4/10 expiries supports a calendar spread selling the front-week high vol.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$10.6M bearish. P/C vol 0.75 (put buying), P/C OI 0.46 (call-heavy open interest).

Directional prints: $85P 5/15 vol 10,444 vs OI 1,291 — large block likely bought for protection. $55P 4/10 vol 2,428 vs OI 216 — deep OTM put bought (tail hedge). Interpretation: These are likely long puts (bearish bets or hedges), consistent with net negative premium.

Unusual: $86P 4/2 IV 47.6% — unusually low IV for a near-dated put just below spot, could be a covered write or a sold put.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $80 — break below triggers dealer short gamma and accelerated selling.

!Pin release after 4/2 expiry — volatility may expand sharply.

!Extreme IV (112%) — long premium faces brutal theta/vega decay.

!Earnings estimated 5/11 — high vol may persist or spike further.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Below gamma flip and falling MP trend offer poor risk/reward.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Better expressed via options given high borrow costs; pin risk at $80.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $90C 4/17 or 5/1.	Stock decline outweighs premium; best if already long.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $75/$70 put spread 4/17 (below key support).	Catastrophic drop below $70.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	Extreme IV and pinning make long calls a terrible buy.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $80/$75 bear put spread 4/17.	Pin holds above $80; high IV makes debit expensive.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	$75/$70P x $90/$95C 4/17.	GEX positive but VIX equivalent >100; tail risk extreme.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell $85C 4/2 (IV 102.7%), buy $85C 4/10 (IV 99.0%) — reverse calendar.	Directional move through $85 loses on both legs.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $60C Jan 2027, sell $90C 4/17 or 5/1 against it.	Long-dated IV still high; stock stagnation hurts.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread (Bearish)

Buy $80 Put / Sell $75 Put, exp 4/17.

Targets the break below the gamma flip ($80) toward the key $75 support, funded by selling a lower put. High IV makes the net debit relatively cheap for a defined-risk directional bet.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $78.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max profit ($0.90 debit remaining). Exit if spot closes above $83. Roll down if $75 is breached.

Traders with a bearish multi-week view, wanting defined risk in a high-vol name.

Cash-Secured Put Spread (Premium Sell)

Sell $75 Put / Buy $70 Put, exp 4/17.

Sells elevated IV well below the gamma flip and key support. Defined risk, collects premium from the bearish flow while positioning for the stock to hold above $75. Better risk/reward than naked short puts.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $73.90

Mgmt: Close at 70% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $75. Roll out and down if challenged.

Premium sellers comfortable with defined risk, aiming to collect high yield below support.

LEAPS Diagonal (Capital Efficient)

Buy $60 Call exp 1/15/2027, Sell $90 Call exp 5/1/2026.

The 30+ DTE long leg captures the structural bearish drift in max pain (to $60) while allowing repeated premium sales against it. The long call provides delta with lower capital outlay than stock. The ~5 vol-point differential between legs (97.1% vs 102.6%) slightly favors the structure.

Debit: $14.00-$16.00

Max loss: $14.00

BE: $74.00

Mgmt: Manage short leg at 50% profit or 21 DTE. Roll short calls up and out if challenged. The long call is the core holding.

Traders with a long-term cautiously bullish or neutral view, seeking to finance a LEAPS position and benefit from high short-term IV.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot closes below $80 (gamma flip) → Enter bear put spread: Buy $80/$75 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to test $88 (2-day EM high) → Sell call credit spread: Sell $90/$95 call spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $83 (invalidates bearish pin break thesis) → Exit all bearish positions (puts, bear spreads).

EXITIV on 4/17 expiry drops below 90% (vol crush) → Take profits on all short premium positions (put spreads, covered calls).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A near-term gamma pin at $80-$82 masks a multi-week bearish drift toward $75, guided by falling max pain. The regime favors selling premium at strikes below support or buying defined-risk put spreads for a breakdown. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for a tactical break, 2) Put credit spread for high-IV premium collection, 3) LEAPS diagonal for a capital-efficient, longer-term play on the high-vol environment.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.