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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1550.13EOD only

Max Pain

$1482.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$59.25

3.8% from close

Price Gap

-67.63

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.33

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

ASML Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 strong put OI dominance & negative GEX; +0.5 spot below max pain; +0.5 high IV regime; -0.5 mixed net premium signal

Watch next session: $1245 PUT OI cluster for support test; Flow in $1400-$1500 calls for resistance clues; Net premium direction for conviction

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$65.1M (mixed signal - skewed by far OTM calls)

P/C volume ratio: 1.31 — put-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 1.41 — strong put-dominant positioning

The flow presents a conflicting picture. While net premium is positive, it's heavily skewed by massive premium in far OTM calls (e.g., $340 strike). The volume and, more importantly, the open interest tell a bearish story with clear put dominance. The negative GEX and spot trading below max pain reinforce the defensive positioning.

Notable Prints

ASML 4/2/26 $1430 Call

Vol: 1,482

OI: 138

Vol/OI: 10.7x

IV: 47.8%

Notional: ~$2.1M (1482 * $1430)

Intent: Lottery ticket directional bet or spread leg

Dual read: Bought (bullish speculation on large move) or sold (premium collection in high IV)

Read-through: Given the high volume vs. OI and strike ~$110 above spot, this is likely a low-probability, high-reward directional bet bought ahead of the 4/2 expiry. The 47.8% IV is below the term structure average, suggesting it was bought, not sold.

ASML 4/24/26 $790 Put

Vol: 527

OI: 250

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 106.3%

Notional: ~$416K (527 * $790)

Intent: Tail-risk hedge or protective put roll

Dual read: Bought (deep protection) or sold (yield on extreme skew)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (106.3%) and deep OTM strike (~40% below spot) point to this being a premium sale (short put) for yield, not a directional bet. This is a volatility/income play, not a bearish signal on spot.

ASML 4/2/26 $1325 Put

Vol: 350

OI: 178

Vol/OI: 2.0x

IV: 38.7%

Notional: ~$464K (350 * $1325)

Intent: Near-term directional hedge or speculation

Dual read: Bought (bearish bet for quick drop) or sold (premium sale at support)

Read-through: Strike is just above current spot ($1320.83) with expiry in 2 days. The low 38.7% IV suggests these were likely bought (bearish) as a cheap hedge or bet on a slight dip below $1325 by Friday. Adds to the near-term defensive tone.

ASML 8/21/26 $910 Put

Vol: 338

OI: 200

Vol/OI: 1.7x

IV: 56.4%

Notional: ~$307K (338 * $910)

Intent: Longer-dated protective put or put spread leg

Dual read: Bought (medium-term hedge) or sold (yield generation)

Read-through: Strike is ~31% below spot, expiring in ~5 months. IV of 56.4% is in line with the term structure. This is likely part of a longer-dated hedge or part of a defined risk spread (e.g., put calendar or diagonal).

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near spot. Large premium in far OTM calls ($340, $380) skews net premium but is non-directional.

Put additions: Significant OI clusters at $1245P (2,017 OI) and $1075P (1,943 OI) establish clear support levels and negative gamma.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Negative GEX (-$2.4M) aligns with put-heavy OI, creating a pro-cyclical (trending) regime. Dealers are short gamma and will hedge by selling into weakness.

OI clusters: Major put walls at $1245 (2,017 OI) and $1075 (1,943 OI). Call walls are less concentrated near-term; $1400C has 1,035 OI.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence of medium-to-long term hedging via the deep OTM put OI clusters ($980P, $800P, $600P). The $1245P cluster is a key near-term hedge level.

Max pain context: Spot ($1320.83) is below nearest expiry max pain ($1350) and the general MP trend is falling ($1350 → $1300), supporting a bearish drift. The $1245 gamma flip estimate is a critical near-term level.

Signal vs Noise

~Massive net premium from $340/$380/$770 calls is noise — these are likely far OTM speculative lottery tickets or part of complex multi-leg strategies, not directional bets on spot moving to those levels.

~$790 Put (4/24) with 106% IV is a volatility/yield play, not a -40% directional bet.

~The elevated P/C ratios (1.31 vol, 1.41 OI) are the stronger, cleaner signal than the net premium figure.

~Some of the put volume, especially in longer-dated, deep OTM strikes, could be overwriting (selling puts for income) rather than outright bearish bets.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Conflicting Signals: Bullish net premium driven by far OTM calls vs. bearish volume/OI/GEX. OI and GEX are more reliable.

🧱Key Gamma Level at $1245: This is the estimated flip point and a major put OI cluster. A break below accelerates negative dealer hedging.

📉Positioning is Defensive: P/C OI of 1.41 and negative GEX show institutions are positioned for downside or hedging against it.

🎯Watch Max Pain Drift: Spot below MP with a falling MP trend suggests gravity is to the downside toward $1300-$1245.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.