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ASML

ASML Holding N.V. - New York ReClose $1592.00EOD only
Max Pain
$1495.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$34.95
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-97.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
32
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.31
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ASML options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
ASML Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

ASML earnings in 54 days. High IV regime with pinning gamma. 80% beat rate suggests upside bias.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Support at $1550 max pain, resistance $1697. Unusual call buying at 1650/1660 implies bullish positioning.
📈Unusual call buying at 1650/1660 strikes suggests bullish sentiment.
⚠️Put OI concentration 14% below spot indicates downside protection.
📅Earnings 54 days away; long-term positioning but immediate risk low.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$1400.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,279 (14.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-15 (54 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$40.55 (2.5%)
  • 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$64.65 (4.0%)
  • 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$76.35 (4.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: 7d ±2.5%, 14d ±4%, 21d ±4.7%.

Crush estimate: No immediate crush, event far.

Skew: Put skew elevated, OI ratio >1.3.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 80% (4/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: In line, 80% beat rate.

Directional bias: Bullish

Key Levels

1$1400.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $1592.35/$1673.45
3Max pain pins: $1550 (2026-05-22); $1470 (2026-05-29); $1460 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 1650C/1660C with vol/oi >4.5.

Aggressive bullish positioning near term.

1600P put vol/oi 4.3.

Hedging or bearish bias.

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $1600.00/$1640.00 call spread
Debit: $17.64-$21.56
Max loss: $21.56
Max gain: $18.44
BE: $1621.56
Trigger: Exit if below $1585; take profit on IV expansion.
Cheapest upside with 80% beat rate; support at $1550.
Outperforms: Bullish bias, defined risk, low cost.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-07-17 $1600.00 put + buy $1600.00 call
Debit: $236.57-$289.14
Max loss: $289.14
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 1310.86 / 1889.14
Trigger: Monitor IV; reduce if IV contracts.
High IV regime and 54d to earnings, but theta decay risk.
Outperforms: Neutral-directional, profit from large move.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-05 $1720.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $1780.00 call
Debit: $45.81-$55.99
Max loss: $55.99
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Avoid if liquidity insufficient. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Volume below 5.
Contango and bullish bias, but liquidity fails.
Outperforms: Sell short-term, buy long-term call.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot ~$1600, support $1585/$1550. Resistance $1697. VIX 17 elevated. Gamma pinning may cap moves.

What to Watch

?Earnings Jul 15; watch sector sentiment, macro. Monitor IV expansion. Key gamma level $1550.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.