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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $238.38EOD only

Max Pain

$225.00

Next expiry Apr 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.36

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-13.38

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.59

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 10, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside pin pressure into $220-$225; confidence: 7.0/10. Primary drivers: large positive GEX +$386.4M concentrated at $220/$222.50/$217.50, bullish net premium $134.9M and P/C vol 0.57, and spot trading above short-dated max pain ($207.50→$210) which creates mean-reversion toward GEX pins rather than MP immediately. Conflict: max pain trend is rising (longer-dated MP → $245) and spot is 6.6% above multi-expiration MP, so a downside shock could reassert trend.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 (pre-computed): +strong positive GEX pinning and bullish net premium; -distance from MP creates tail risk; no imminent earnings before 4/30 so confidence stands.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $220.00 (+$40.5M), $217.50 (+$25.0M), $222.50 (+$25.0M); heavy call flow at $220/$225/$230 indicating dealer short-delta to be hedged on dips; EM floor 2d $216.76.
Conflicts: Max pain near-term at $207.50 vs spot $221.25 — a sudden selling event could trigger rapid move to MP, but current pinning suggests mean-revert first.

📌GEX pinning concentrated ~($220/$217.5/$222.5) — dealers will buy on dips into these levels

💨Net premium +$134.9M with P/C vol 0.57 — institutional flow remains call-heavy, supportive of upside or range compression

⚠️Short-dated max pain $207.50 vs spot $221.25 — a sudden selling event could trigger rapid move to MP, but current pinning suggests mean-revert first

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: Normal — ATM near-dated IVs 34.1% (2d)→29.4% (5d) with elevated mids (30–45% in 23–44d), implying cheap near-term relative to 23–44d expiries and no extreme vol dislocation.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: Pinning — large positive GEX +$386.4M concentrated at $220/$217.5/$222.5 meaning dealer hedging buys on dips around those levels, producing a local magnet and reduced realized range in the next 2–7 days.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — Net premium +$134.9M, heavy call premium at $220/$225/$250; P/C vol 0.57 supports call-buy skew and dealer short-delta behavior.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP — spot $221.25 vs near-dated MP $207.50; short-term pinning dominates immediate action but multi-exp MP trend is rising (to $245) which supports longer-term upside bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and flow persist across the next 2–4 expirations (GEX concentrations visible in next two expirations and positive net premium across flows), and term-structure shows elevated IV into 23–44d — use 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$216.76$225.74

Dealers likely buy dips into $220/$217.5; break below $216.76 (2d EM floor) would remove pin support and accelerate downside to $210–$208.

Next 1 week

$215.26$227.24

Sustained call flow at $220–$225 and GEX at $222.50/$225 will cap upside near $227; push above $227.24 opens $230+$ territory toward structural OI walls.

Next 2 weeks

$211.60$230.90

Continuation depends on maintaining above $215; break below $211.60 would increase probability of reversion to near MP $207–210.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $208 (2026-04-08); $208 (2026-04-10); $210 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $216.76/$225.74; 1w $215.26/$227.24

Support: $220.00 · $217.50 · $215.00

Resistance: $225.00 · $227.50 · $230.00

Structural: Structural call OI wall between $235-$300 will slow large upside; longer-term put floor clusters at $190-$205 act as deep support for crash protection sizing.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+386.4M

DEX: +125.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Near-term gamma concentrated at $220 (+$40.5M), $222.50 (+$25.0M) and $217.50 (+$25.0M); dealers will buy delta when spot falls toward $217.5–$220 and sell delta when spot lifts above $222.5–$225; a ±2% move (~$216.8 / $225.7) will flip hedging from buy-to-cover to sell-to-cover, compressing moves inside EM bounds.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 39.3% vs SPX VIX not provided — short-dated IVs (2–9d) ~31–34% are lower than 23–44d IVs (40–45%), so near-term vol is relatively cheap vs 1–2 month expiries.

Term structure: Term structure: front-week cheap (2–9d ATM ~31–34%), sharp IV pick-up at 23–44d (ATM 40.9%–44.9%) indicating event/calendar premium or persistent demand in monthlies.

Skew: Skew: calls show heavy OI at $235-$300 but short-dated IVs depressed; mispriced opportunity: sell short-dated (2–9d) premium against buys in 23–44d where IV is ~+9–13 vol points (e.g., sell 4/10 ATM ~34% buy 5/1 ATM ~44.9% — sell higher-IV leg instead).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $134.9M bullish; P/C vol 0.57 indicates call-dominant flow.

Directional prints: 33 put 220 OTM 4/10 — High-volume put prints at $220 (Vol 19,210, OI 305) — could be large put buys (protective) or aggressive put selling; given net premium +$134.9M and low P/C, interpreted more as dealers selling puts (delta buy) or clients hedging short deltas. 30.2 put 225 ITM 4/10 — $225 put prints (Vol 6,110, OI 189) suggest short-dated downside demand; paired with call-heavy net flow, likely option buyers hedging exposure rather than sustained directional push.

Unusual: 35.4 put 217.5 OTM 4/10 — Active $217.50 put prints (Vol 7,908 OI 306) within GEX pin band — stand out for short-dated hedging into pins; could be protective buys or sized selling against dealer hedges.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sharp break below 2d EM floor $216.76 removes pin support and could cascade to MP $207.50.

!Vol gap into 23–44d expiries (ATM ~44.9% at 5/1) could reprice if macro shock occurs, making short premium trades dangerous.

!Concentrated call OI wall $235–$300 — large option holders can limit upside until higher gamma shifts occur.

!Upcoming earnings 2026-04-30 creates a 23–30d vol center; positions into that window need event-aware sizing.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy AMZN stock at $221.25	Gap risk to near MP $207.50; requires conviction in longer-term MP trend to $245.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid — GEX pinning and dealer buy-the-dip make shorting near spot high-risk	Gamma-fueled squeezes into $220–$225.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 5/8 30d $225 call (sell lower-IV leg)	Capped upside at $225; assignment risk into earnings window; still benefits from pin support.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 (2d) or 4/13 (5d) $217.50/$215 put spread (defined-risk short)	Break below $216.76 EM floor and MP $207.50 accelerates loss; shrink size into open interest at $217.5 cluster.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 5/1 (23d) $230 call for directional upside beyond EM bounds	Time decay and strong call OI wall $235-$300; expensive relative to short-dated front.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/10 $220 put or buy 4/10 $222.5/$217.5 bear put spread	Gamma pinning reduces probability of large immediate downside; expensive during put prints and low P/C.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 $217.5/$215 put spread + sell 4/10 $225/$227.5 call spread (short premium around pin)	IV spike or break outside EM bounds removes premium quickly; worst if spot < $215 or > $227.5.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 5/01 $220 call, buy 4/10 $220 call (reverse calendar — sold higher-IV longer-dated leg ~44.9% buy 34.1% front)	Selling longer-dated high-IV leg exposes to term premium and assignment/roll risk; benefits from front-week theta if short leg decays first.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy long-dated 1yr $210 LEAP call and sell 30–45d $225 calls (diagonal)	Requires term structure and rising MP to work; limited upside if short calls assigned; benefits from roll opportunities.

Top Plays

Short-dated defined put spread (tactical)

Sell 4/10 $217.50/$215.00 put spread

Plays GEX pinning — dealers likely buy dips into $217.5–$220 so defined put spread collects premium with positive probability of expiring worthless.

Credit: $0.25-$0.40

Max loss: $2.75

BE: $216.25

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $216.76 or VIX spikes > +6 pts.

Traders seeking defined-risk premium collection in multi-week pin regime

Short iron condor (near-term income)

Sell 4/10 $217.50/$215 put spread and sell $225.00/$227.50 call spread

Collects rich near-term premium around the GEX pins; front-week cheap IV vs monthlies favors selling premium into pin band.

Credit: $0.45-$0.80

Max loss: $9.55

BE: Lower: 216.05 Upper: 227.95

Mgmt: Take 60% profit; close if spot < $216.76 or > $228 or VIX +5 pts.

Accounts wanting high-probability income with defined risk

Reverse calendar (term-structure sell)

Sell 5/01 $220 call, buy 4/10 $220 call (reverse calendar — sell higher-IV long-dated leg ~44.9% buy 34.1%)

Sells elevated monthlies and buys cheap front-week to capture term premium; structure is net credit and benefits if front-week moves little while longer-dated IV compresses.

Credit: $0.40-$1.00

Max loss: $120.00

BE: Dependent on net credit; monitor carry/roll risk

Mgmt: Close or roll short 5/01 leg if spot rallies above $227.5 or if 5/01 IV rises; take 50% credit profit on short leg decay.

Traders capitalizing on vol term structure and willing to manage longer-dated short exposure

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $220.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 4/10 $217.50/$215.00 put spread

IFIf spot rallies to $225.00 and IV on 4/10 calls compresses by >2 vol pts → Sell 4/10 $225.00/$227.50 call spread as part of an iron condor

IFIf 5/1 ATM IV > 44% and 4/10 ATM IV < 35% → Enter reverse calendar: sell 5/01 $220 call buy 4/10 $220 call

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below 2d EM floor $216.76 → Roll short 4/10 call spreads down or buy protective 4/10 $215 puts; reduce short premium size

ADJIf spot > $227.50 and holds 30 minutes → Take profit on short-call spreads and consider rolling short calls to 5/1 $230 strikes

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX rises +6 vol-pts intraday or IV for 4/10 > 40% → Close all short premium positions (iron condors/put spreads) immediately

EXITIf spot < $212.00 (breach of 2-week EM lower bound $211.60) → Exit directional longs and buy protection; cut defined short premium trades

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning and bullish call flow favor shorting near-term premium and defined-risk put selling into $217.5–$220 support; invalidation is break and hold below $216.76 (2d EM floor) which signals dealer hedges exhausted and risk of move toward MP $207.50. Top plays: 1) sell 4/10 $217.5/$215 put spread (tactical defined risk), 2) short iron condor 4/10 $217.5/$215 + $225/$227.5 (income), 3) sell 5/01 $220 call buy 4/10 $220 call (reverse calendar — term-structure sell).

Read the Directional analysis for AMZN for 2026-04-08. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.