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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $266.32EOD only

Max Pain

$262.50

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.14

1.6% from close

Price Gap

-3.82

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.59

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

AMZN Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet into the short-dated max-pain band around $208-$210 but dealer pinning and positive flow bias spot toward the upper EM; Confidence: 7.5/10 (base). Top supporting signals: GEX +$245.9M concentrated at $217.50/$220 and net bullish premium flow at 215/220/212.5; conflicts: spot is 3.0% above nearest MP ($208) so a short-term pull to the $206–210 band remains likely.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5: +GEX magnitude and concentration (+$245.9M at $217.50/$220), +bullish net premium and P/C volume 0.80, -minor distance from nearest MP (spot 3.0% above $208). No overriding macro or earnings catalyst detected in the window.

Supports: GEX concentrations at $215/$212.5/$210, heavy put flow at $210–215, narrow 2d EM $209.61–$217.94
Conflicts: Max pain short-dated $207.50–$208 vs spot $213.77 (pull risk); top call OI wall $225–$300 caps structural upside

📌Pinning: concentrated GEX +$24.5M at $217.50 and +$20.4M at $220 driving magnet behavior

📈Bullish flow at near-ATM strikes: heavy call premium at 215/220 and strong buy interest at 212.5/215 in unusual prints

⚠️Short-dated max pain $207.50–$208 creates downside risk into expiry even with positive GEX

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal volatility regime: ATM IV ~41.1% with short-dated 1–3d IV elevated (46.2% → 41.2%) consistent with expiries priced; not an extreme sell/ buy-vol environment.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+$245.9M) concentrated at 212.5–220 with strongest buckets at $217.50 and $220; dealers will hedge by buying dips and selling rallies inside those nodes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: net premium modest +$1.3M, P/C vol 0.80 and top premium inflows at 215/220 — institutional skew toward calls; unusual put prints are short-dated hedges not net directional here.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $213.77 sits above short-dated max pain ($207.50–$208) — creates tug-of-war: dealer pinning upward vs structural pain below; expect mean reversion toward MP if momentum fades.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentration persist across the next few expirations (GEX nodes at 212.5/215/217.5/220) and MP trend is rising across expirations — prefer 30–45 DTE with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$209.61$217.94

GEX pin at $217.50/$220 and heavy call flow at 215/220 supports upside; failure at $210/$209.61 will expose MP pull to $208.

Next 1 week

$206.27$221.27

1w EM $206.27–$221.27; MP $207.50 and concentrated puts at $202.50–$205 create downside gravity if dealer buying eases.

Next 2 weeks

$203.20$224.35

2w EM $203.20–$224.35; structural call OI wall $225–$300 likely limits sustained run without large flow.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $208 (2026-04-08); $208 (2026-04-10); $205 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $209.61/$217.94; 1w $206.27/$221.27

Support: $210.00 · $207.50 · $205.00

Resistance: $217.50 · $220.00 · $225.00

Structural: Structural call-OI wall at $225–$300 caps sustained upside; deep put clusters below $180 act as long-term floor but are distant to current trade horizon.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+245.9M

DEX: +116.2M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $212.50 (+$7.05M GEX bucket), $215 (+$9.91M), $217.50 (+$19.60M) and $220 (+$15.95M); dealers will buy on dips toward $210–$212 and sell into rallies above $217–220; a ±2% move (~$4.28) would move spot through $210 and toward $217 causing large dealer delta flows (buy-the-dip behavior on a 2% down-move, selling into a 2% up-move once near $220).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 41.1% vs market VIX (not provided) — ATM IV is elevated short-dated (46.2% 1d) then falls into 34–36% for 6–17d, then re-rises into May; short-dated IV rich relative to multi-week.

Term structure: Front-end skewed high (1d 46.2%, 3d 41.2%, 6–17d 34–35%) with a bump in early-May expiries (24–31d ATM 45.4–46.4%) — implies calendar opportunities and event/expiry pricing.

Skew: Skew: puts expensive at 210–215 on 4/08 prints (IV 45–54%); mispriced vol opportunity: sell 4/08 short-dated put premium vs buy ~30–45d protection (calendar) — front-month IV > 30d IV by ~8–10 pts around early-May.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $1.3M net premium (bullish); P/C volume 0.80 indicates call-heavy flow at near-ATM strikes.

Directional prints: 50.4 put 210 OTM 4/08 — AMZN260408P00210000 large print Vol=17,883 vs OI=1,320 (13.6x) — could be bought protection or aggressive put buying; given overall bullish flow this is likely institutional hedge (buy puts) rather than directional naked sell. 48.2 put 212.5 OTM 4/08 — AMZN260408P00212500 Vol=8,972 vs OI=819 (10.9x) — short-dated put demand concentrated at 212.5; consistent with downside hedging into expiry. 46.9 call 215 OTM 4/08 — AMZN260408C00215000 Vol=23,766 vs OI=2,941 (8.1x) — heavy call activity at 215 suggests buy-side call exposure supporting upward pinning; could be buys or short-call opening but overall flow context favors buys.

Unusual: 50.4 put 210 OTM 4/08 — Largest unusual: AMZN260408P00210000 (17,883 vol vs 1,320 OI) — front-week put demand raising short-dated IV and increasing downside hedge concentration near MP.

Risks & Catalysts

!Short-dated max-pain $207.50–$208 into 4/08–4/10 expiries can pull spot down despite positive GEX.

!Elevated 1d–3d IV (46.2%/41.2%) creates quick vol-crush risk if pin resolves—short premium faces gap risk.

!Large structural call OI at $225–$300 will cap upside absent new buy flow; break above $225 could flip dealer behavior and accelerate move.

!Macroeconomic or tape-wide risk (overnight gap) can overwhelm dealer gamma buying and force quick moves through pins.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $213.77	Capped near-term upside and MP pull to $207–$210; opportunity cost vs defined-risk trades.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid initiating naked short given strong positive GEX and dealer dip-buying	Dealer gamma buys on dips likely to squeeze bearish shorts.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 225 call	Capped upside at $225 against possible gap higher; collect premium while owning shares.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $210 put or sell 2026-04-17 $210/$205 put spread	Short-dated MP pull to $207.50 could inflate short risk; cut if spot < $205.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-22 $220 call (directional)	Time decay and IV expensive in early May; better as part of diagonal to finance cost.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-10 $210/$205 bear-put spread (tactical hedge)	Expensive front-end IV; expensive hedge versus range-bound pin behavior.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $217.5/$222.5 call spread and sell $205/$200 put spread (defined-risk)	Large gap/vol spike through wings (IV crush) will break structure.
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell 2026-04-08 (front) $212.5 call, buy 2026-05-22 $212.5 call — front IV 48.2% vs May22 ~41.8% (sell high IV, buy lower IV)	Front-week pin resolution can move underlying strong and create front-leg assignment risk; manage quickly.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 220 call, sell 2026-04-17 220 call (diagonal) — sell front IV ~35% buy longer ~38% (structure finance)	Requires roll if strong move; term-structure edge modest; longer DTE reduces gamma.

Top Plays

Sell calendar (front sell) at 212.5

Sell 4/08 $212.5 call, buy 5/22 $212.5 call

Front-week IV high (48.2%) vs May22 lower (~41.8%); sell premium and let pinning/time decay work for you.

Credit: $0.90-$1.60

Max loss: Limited to net debit if assigned offset by long leg / manage by rolling

BE: Depends on assignment; front-leg premium collected offsets cost — plan to close if front leg ITM into expiry

Mgmt: Close front leg at 50–75% profit or if spot > $217.50 or VIX > +6 pts; roll out if pin breaks.

Premium sellers who can manage assignment/tactical risk

Sell defined-risk iron-condor 17d

Sell 4/17 $217.5/$222.5 call spread and sell 4/17 $205/$200 put spread

Uses pinning and narrow 2w EM to collect premium inside $205–$222.5; wings reference EM guardrails and GEX nodes.

Credit: $0.75-$1.30

Max loss: $475.00

BE: Upper/Lower wing breakevens at sold wings ± credit; monitor if spot crosses $205 or $222.5

Mgmt: Take 60–70% profit; cut at 1.5x debit or if spot closes beyond $217.50 (upside) or <$207.50 (downside).

Defined-risk premium collectors (no stock exposure)

Sell 30–45d put spread (30d)

Sell 5/22 $210/$205 put spread

Longer DTE put spread sells into rising MP trend and collects higher premium with lower front-week IV; time cushions against short-dated gamma and gives favorable roll optionality.

Credit: $1.00-$1.80

Max loss: $400.00

BE: Short strike breakeven ~210 - credit received

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–70% of max profit; defend/roll if spot < $207.50 or IV spike > +8 pts.

Traders wanting defined risk with multi-week bias

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $217.50 and holds >=30 minutes → Sell 4/17 iron-condor: sell 217.5/222.5 call spread and sell 205/200 put spread

IFIf front-week IV (4/08 ATM) >48% and 212.5 front-week prints show heavy volume → Sell front-week $212.5 call and buy 5/22 $212.5 call (calendar) at quoted differential

IFIf spot dips and holds $210.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 5/22 $210/$205 put spread

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $220.00 or touches $225.00 → Hedge short-call side of condors/calendars by buying 1x further call spread or roll up short calls +5 strikes into next weekly

ADJIf spot < $207.50 or closes below $205 on daily basis → Close short put spreads and reduce short premium; convert to debit put spreads or buy protection

Exit Triggers

EXITIf front-week calendar reaches 60–75% of max profit → Buy to close the short front leg and either keep or sell the longer leg as needed

EXITIf VIX-style IV for AMZN front-week falls >10 vol points intraday → Take profits on short front-week calendars and iron-condors

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning and concentrated GEX favor selling front-week premium and defined-risk wings inside $205–$222.5 while a rising MP trend supports multi-week put spreads/diagonals; invalidation: sustained close > $225 or a gap >+5% which flips dealer behavior. Top plays: 1) sell 212.5 calendar (front sell) — best for premium sellers; 2) 17d iron-condor at 217.5/222.5 & 205/200 — defined-risk; 3) 5/22 210/205 put spread — multi-week defined-risk entry.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.