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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $449.59EOD only

Max Pain

$420.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$12.50

2.8% from close

Price Gap

-29.59

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.08

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term magnet to the $230 area; Confidence: 7.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX +$62.0M pinning near $220-$230, concentrated call premium at $220/$225, and net premium inflow +$36.4M; conflict: high Avg IV 62.1% and max pain below spot ($212/$210) creating asymmetric downside if pin fails.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5: +GEX pinning (+$62.0M) and net premium (+$36.4M) raise confidence; slight downgrade risk from elevated ATM IV (64% 3d) and MP 4.2% below spot.

Supports: GEX concentrations +$9.8M at $230, +$8.7M at $220; net premium $36.4M skewed to calls at $200/$220; EM 2d guardrail $211.23/$231.83.
Conflicts: Avg IV 62.1% (prices rich), MP ladder falling $212→$200, sizable put OI at $200 (20,097) creates structural downside if sellers shift to puts.

📌GEX pinning concentrated at $220/$225/$230 (total >$24M) — dealers will hedge toward these levels.

⚖️High IV (ATM 64% 3d) favors selling premium if you accept pin; but tail risk exists under $212.

📈Net premium inflow +$36.4M and P/C OI 1.07 — flow mixed but leaning call-buying into upside guards.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV: ATM 3d 64.0% and Avg IV 62.1% — options rich relative to longer-dated ATM (10–45d ~55–59%), favors premium sellers if gamma risk acceptable.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large near-term GEX concentrations (+$8.7M at $220, +$9.8M at $230, +$7.6M at $225) imply dealer delta-hedge flows that produce mean-reversion into $220–$230 band.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium +$36.4M with call-heavy premium at $200/$220/$222.5; P/C OI ~1.07 — institutional call interest but put OI concentrated at $200 may be protective hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $221.53 sits above short-term MP ($212.50 on 4/10) by ~4.2% creating a pressure point: dealers biased to pin lower but GEX currently pulls into $220–$230.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning GEX concentrations persist across the next two expirations (4/10 and 4/17) and MP trend is slowly falling over many expirations — trade using 30–45 DTE for primary positions, weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$211.23$231.83

Dealer hedging and GEX +$9.8M at $230 will magnetize price toward $230; break below $211.23 removes pin support.

Next 1 week

$205.23$237.83

1-week EM $205.23–$237.83 — failure to hold $212 accelerates toward max pain $210.

Next 2 weeks

$199.93$243.13

MP trend falling toward $200 and gamma flip ~$200; sustained weakness below $210 opens larger put floor $120–$200.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $212 (2026-04-10); $210 (2026-04-17); $210 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $211.23/$231.83; 1w $205.23/$237.83

Support: $220.00 · $212.50 · $205.23

Resistance: $230.00 · $235.00 · $240.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,097 (9.7% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall at $240 caps upside; put floor concentrated $120–$200 provides long-term downside support and marks gamma flip near $200 for structural protection.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+62.0M

DEX: +73.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,097 (9.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM GEX concentrated at $220 (+$8.7M), $225 (+$7.6M) and $230 (+$9.8M) — dealers will sell rallies into these strikes (buy underlying) and buy downside protection if spot drops; a +2% move up (~$226) will force dealer selling of delta (reducing upward pressure), a -2% move down (~$217) will force dealer buying of delta (creating mean-reversion back toward pin) until approaching gamma flip ~$200 where hedging becomes unstable and accelerates downside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IV 3d 64.0% and Avg IV 62.1% — rich vs typical index vols; buying vol is expensive, selling has premium but gamma risk is elevated.

Term structure: Front-loaded: 3d ATM 64.0% >> 10–45d ATM 55.5–58.9% (cheapening mid-term); pick calendars where near-term IV > longer-dated IV (sell near-dated).

Skew: Skew: elevated short-dated put IV (e.g., 4/10 212.5P IV 69.6%) vs calls — mispriced opportunity to sell short-dated put spreads around pin; calendar arbitrage sells 4/10/4/17 where IV differential ~8–9 vol-pts.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium inflow +$36.4M (call-dominant on $200/$220), P/C OI 1.07 — flow supportive of upside into GEX pins but mixed hedging from large $200 puts.

Directional prints: 52.2 call 265 OTM 2026-05-01 — Large vol print OI 229 (2,098 vol) at $265 suggests directional call interest or structured buys; could be long calls or call spreads — interpretation: bullish tail-seeking (buy calls) consistent with call-heavy net premium. 52.8 call 242.5 OTM 2026-04-17 — 4/17 $242.50 print OI 503 (2,845 vol) indicates speculative upside interest toward $242 — aligns with dealer pin at $230–$235.

Unusual: 57.9 put 210 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 $210P OI 1,487 (8,298 vol) — sizeable short-dated put activity; could be buyers of protection (bearish) or sellers rolling; in context more consistent with protective hedging given MP below spot.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $200 — if spot breaches $200 dealer hedges accelerate downside into put floor $120–$200.

!Short-term max pain at $212–$210 across expirations — sustained move below these levels will flip dealer order flow to heavier put hedges.

!High short-dated IV (3d ATM 64.0%) increases cost and speed of moves — selling premium exposes to volatile gaps and fat-tail risk.

!Earnings 2026-05-05 (unknown date/time) could reprice May expirations and steepen/flatten term structure.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $221.53	High IV and MP below spot; amplified downside if $212 breaks.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares near $230 resistance	Positive GEX and dealer hedging likely to create mean-reversion; high carry risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy shares + sell 2026-04-17 $230 call	Call bought down to $230 resistance; upside capped near pin.
Cash-secured put / Put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $215/$205 put spread	If price collapses toward gamma flip $200 losses mount; credit at risk if MP fails.
Long calls	Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 $240 call	High IV; expensive tail call with time premium.
Long puts / Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-17 $210/$200 put spread	Costs elevated but protects below MP; benefits if pin breaks.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $205/$195 put x $235/$245 call	Large short-dated IV and events can blow wings; requires monitoring if spot nears $212 or $235.
Calendar (regular)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 ATM (≈$222.5) buy 2026-05-22 ATM (≈$222.5) — sell higher IV near-dated, buy cheaper longer-dated	Front-loaded IV (64% vs 45d ~58.9%) favors selling near-term; vulnerable to a gap move through $212 or $230.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-03-19 200 call, sell 2026-05-22 220 call (diagonal)	Directional and requires capital; term premium moderate but exposed to intermediate volatility moves.

Top Plays

Sell 4/17 $215/$205 put spread

Sell 2026-04-17 215/205 put spread

Collects high short-dated put premium near dealer pin; positive GEX pulls price toward $220–$230 making spread decay favorable.

Credit: $0.50-$0.85

Max loss: $9.15

BE: $214.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot <$212 for 2 consecutive sessions.

Defined-risk premium collectors who accept multi-week thesis

Sell 4/10 ATM calendar (regular)

Sell 2026-04-10 222.5 ATM, buy 2026-05-22 222.5 ATM (sell higher IV near-dated)

Front-loaded IV (4/10 ATM 64% vs 45d 58.9%) provides ~5–6 vol-pt edge; captures decay under pinning GEX while preserving longer exposure.

Credit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: Limited to calendar decay divergence (variable)

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take 40–60% profit on sold leg decay; roll if IV collapses or spot moves >±3% from 222.5.

Traders wanting theta with limited directional bet; requires active roll management

Iron condor 4/17 (defined wing short premium)

Sell 2026-04-17 205/195 put x 235/245 call iron condor

Short premium inside EM 1w guardrails $205–$237 with positive GEX support for mean-reversion; collects elevated IV.

Credit: $1.20-$2.00

Max loss: $8.80

BE: Lower BE ~203.8 upper ~237.8

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit; widen or roll if spot approaches $212 or $235.

Accounts comfortable with defined-risk short premium over multi-week window

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds $220.00 for 60 min → Sell 2026-04-17 215/205 put spread

IFIf spot tags $230.00 and IV falls >3 vol-pts intraday → Sell 2026-04-17 235/245 call spread or add short call wing to condor

IFIf 30–45d ATM IV compresses >5 vol-pts while spot in $220–$230 → Initiate PMCC: buy shares + sell 2026-05-22 230 call

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX-equivalent ATM IV for AMD >75% or front-day IV jumps >10 vol-pts → Exit all short premium positions immediately

EXITIf spot breaches $200 (gamma flip) intraday → Close all short premium and directional long stock positions

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week mean-reversion into $220–$230 pin driven by +$62.0M GEX and concentrated call OI; invalidation: sustained break below $212.50 (4/10 MP) or a fast gap through gamma flip ~$200. Regime favors defined-risk short premium (put spreads, iron condors) and selling near-term IV into cheaper longer-dated vol (calendars); top plays: 4/17 215/205 put spread (defined risk), 4/10->5/22 ATM calendar (carry), and 4/17 iron condor 205/195x235/245 (short premium).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.