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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $447.58EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$24.20

5.4% from close

Price Gap

-32.58

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.08

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning force toward $205 (max pain) but elevated volatility. Confidence: 7/10. The regime has flipped from negative to massively positive gamma, creating a powerful stabilizing effect. Bullish flow and a high GEX score align, though spot is 6.1% above the pin, creating a gravitational pull lower.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 7; GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish (+2) and GEX positive (+1) are already factored. No override needed.

Supports: GEX +$144.4M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$181.5M (bullish), P/C Vol 0.92 (balanced but net premium positive)
Conflicts: Spot at $217.50 is 6.1% above max pain ($205), creating a potential drag.

🔄Regime FLIP: GEX swung from -$11.3M to +$144.4M. This is a massive structural shift from trending to pinning.

📉Spot vs MP: Price is well above the $205 pin cluster. Expect mean reversion pressure lower toward that level.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 59.5% — High vol regime. Premium sellers have edge on range-bound plays, but volatility is still elevated.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$144.4M concentrated — Strong pinning regime. Dealers are net long gamma and will hedge to suppress volatility, magnetizing price toward high gamma strikes.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow Mixed but net premium strongly bullish — Heavy call buying at $205-$220 dominates net premium, but P/C ratios show underlying put interest.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot Above MP by 6.1% — Expect gravitational pull toward the $205 max pain cluster across near-term expirations.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Positive GEX is massive and persistent across expirations. Max pain pins at $205 for multiple weeks, and the falling MP trend ($205 → $200 → $180) indicates a longer-term bearish drift underlying the pin. This supports a multi-week 'pinned but drifting' thesis.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$217.09$217.91

Extremely tight EM ($0.82 range) dominated by pinning. A break above $217.91 is unlikely without a gamma regime break.

Next 1 week

$205.12$229.88

Max pain gravity and positive GEX pull spot toward $205. Upside capped by $220/$240 call walls.

Next 2 weeks

$199.90$235.10

Pinning force persists, but the falling max pain trend ($205 → $200) suggests a gradual lower drift within the $200-$235 range.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $205 (2026-03-27); $205 (2026-04-02); $205 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $217.09/$217.91; 1w $205.12/$229.88

Support: $165.00 · $200.00 · $150.00

Resistance: $220.00 · $240.00

Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,770

Structural: Massive put OI floors at $165 (30.8k), $150, and $140 indicate strong structural downside protection. Call OI walls at $220 and $240 cap rallies.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+144.4M

DEX: +76.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$165 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,770)

NTM gamma: Dealers are massively net long gamma. A move ±2% (~$213-$222) will force dealers to buy into weakness and sell into strength, strongly suppressing volatility and reverting price toward the high-gamma zone (likely near $205-$210).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 59.5% — Extremely high standalone vol. Implies rich premium, favoring sellers on range-bound plays.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping from weekly (48.9%) to May (58.0%), with a hump at May expirations pricing in 5/5 earnings. The 4/2 expiry IV (5.7%) is an outlier due to imminent expiry.

Skew: The ~9 vol-point differential between 4/10 (48.9%) and 5/8 (58.0%) supports selling the higher-IV May expiry against a long in April (reverse calendar) for a bearish drift play.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$181.5M bullish; P/C Vol 0.92, P/C OI 1.13.

Directional prints: $215P 4/2 vol 21,017 vs OI 1,198 (17.5x) at IV 10.9% — Likely SOLD puts for premium collection given low IV and proximity to spot. $275C 4/10 vol 1,925 vs OI 117 (16.4x) — Likely BOUGHT OTM calls as a low-cost lottery ticket. One line for all structural/hedging flow: Massive net call premium at $205-$220 aligns with bullish positioning against the put-heavy OI structure.

Unusual: $130P 4/17 vol 10,086 vs OI 1,593 (6.3x) at IV 98.8% — Extreme OTM put purchase, likely a cheap tail hedge or speculative downside bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma regime break: A sustained move beyond the high-gamma zone (~$210-$215) could reduce pinning force, though GEX is massive.

!Earnings volatility (5/5): The IV hump in May creates crush risk for long premium positions entered now.

!Macro drag: High IV suggests stock-specific stress; broad market weakness could overpower the pin.

!Max pain gravity: The 6.1% gap between spot and MP is large; a swift move to $205 could trigger stop-losses.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Spot is above max pain with a gravitational pull lower; better to finance via premium selling.
Short Stock	Weak	N/A	Strong positive GEX and bullish flow create fierce counter-trend rallies; poor risk/reward.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $220 Call 4/17 for ~$4.00 credit.	Stock decline below purchase price; capped upside.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Strong	Sell $205 Put 4/17 (~$5.50 credit) or sell $205/$200 Put Spread 4/17.	Assignment at $205; max pain target provides strong support.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid. Buying high IV in a pinning regime is poor odds.	IV crush and theta decay in a range-bound market.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate	Buy $210 Put / Sell $200 Put 4/24.	Pinning force slows descent; time decay in high IV.
Iron Condor	Strong	Sell $210/$205 Put Spread & $225/$230 Call Spread 4/17.	VIX spike could break wings, but GEX positive and VIX contextually high supports range.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $205 Put 5/8 (IV 58.0%), Buy $205 Put 4/17 (IV 50.3%). Directional: Bearish.	Pin at $205 hurts short put; manage before May earnings.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy $180 Call Jan 2027, sell monthly $220 Calls against it (e.g., $220C 4/24).	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated (~55%).

Top Plays

Cash-Secured Put at Max Pain

Sell AMD $205 Put, 4/17 expiry.

Directly harvests rich premium in a high-IV, positive gamma regime where $205 is the strongest magnetic pin across multiple expirations. This is the purest expression of the pinning thesis.

Credit: $5.00-$6.00

Max loss: $199.00

BE: $199.00

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit. Roll down and out if spot breaks below $200. Consider assignment if pin holds.

Traders bullish/neutral on AMD willing to acquire shares at a 5.7% discount to current price, or for premium collection.

Iron Condor (30-45 DTE)

Sell $210/$205 Put Spread & $225/$230 Call Spread, 4/17 expiry.

Capitalizes on the strong positive GEX pinning regime and elevated IV. The strikes bracket the immediate expected move ($199.90-$235.10) and key OI levels ($205 MP, $220 call wall).

Credit: $1.40-$1.70

Max loss: $3.60

BE: Puts: 208.60, Calls: 226.40

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Adjust if spot breaches short strike ($210 or $225).

Range-bound traders seeking defined risk and high probability in a volatile but pinned environment.

Bear Put Spread (Multi-Week Drift)

Buy $210 Put / Sell $200 Put, 4/24 expiry.

Aligns with the multi-week bearish drift thesis (falling MP trend) while using the current elevated IV to enter a defined-risk position. The 4/24 expiry provides time for the pin to resolve and the drift to develop, avoiding the week-to-week pin noise.

Debit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: Debit Paid

BE: $205.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit. Exit early if spot reclaims $220 (breaks major resistance).

Directional bears who believe the $205 pin will hold temporarily but ultimately give way to lower prices, seeking defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to $220 (tests call OI wall) and holds for 1 hour → Sell $225/$230 Call Credit Spread 4/17.

IFSpot drops to $210 (tests put spread short strike) → Sell $210/$205 Put Spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $230 (breaks upper call spread wing) → Exit all short call positions (e.g., call spreads, covered calls).

EXITVIX drops below 20 and AMD IV < 45% → Exit all short premium positions (CSPs, Iron Condors) due to reduced edge.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A powerful positive gamma pin at $205 within a multi-week bearish drift regime (falling max pain). Favor selling premium around the pin with defined risk. Top plays: 1) $205 CSP (best for premium/assignment), 2) Iron Condor (best for range-bound), 3) Bear Put Spread (best for directional bearish drift). Invalidation of pinning thesis: a sustained close above $230.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.