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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $447.58EOD only

Max Pain

$415.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$24.20

5.4% from close

Price Gap

-32.58

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.08

Balanced positioning

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

AMD Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $200-$205 max pain levels. Confidence: 5/10. Spot is pinned at max pain, but negative GEX and a falling MP trend across expirations signal underlying distribution pressure. Bullish flow is the primary counter-signal.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 spot at MP; -1 GEX/flow contradiction (GEX negative, flow bullish); +0 no penalty for data quality.

Supports: Spot at MP ($203.43 vs $205), Net Premium +$58.8M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.60 (call dominance).
Conflicts: GEX -$11.3M (trending/accelerating regime), MP trend falling ($205 → $200), P/C OI 1.12 (structural put bias).

⚠️GEX -$11.3M vs Bullish Flow: Contradiction suggests aggressive call buying into a negative gamma regime.

📉Max Pain Trend Falling: Pin targets drift lower over time, from $205 to $200 and eventually $180 by June.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 61.8% — High vol regime. Premium sellers have edge on mean reversion, but elevated IV supports long premium for directional moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$11.3M — Trending/accelerating regime. Dealers are net short gamma, amplifying spot moves. Hedging flows will chase momentum.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow Bullish — Net premium +$58.8M with heavy call buying at $210-$220. This is aggressive positioning against the negative gamma backdrop.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot At MP — Price is pinned at the near-term max pain cluster ($202-$205). Expect tight range control through the 4/2 expiry.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX and falling max pain trend ($205 → $200 → $180) persist across multiple expirations, indicating a structural drift lower over the next 4-8 weeks. The pin is a near-term event within a longer-term regime.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$192.44$214.42

Max pain and expiry pin dominate. Break above $214.42 or below $192.44 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$186.93$219.92

Post-pin release and falling MP target. Upside capped by $220 call wall.

Next 2 weeks

$182.88$223.98

Negative GEX amplifies downside; support at $180/$165 OI floors.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $205 (2026-03-27); $202 (2026-04-02); $205 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $192.44/$214.42; 1w $186.93/$219.92

Support: $165.00 · $200.00 · $150.00

Resistance: $220.00 · $240.00

Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,602

Structural: Call OI walls at $220 and $240 cap rallies. Massive put floors at $165 (30.6k OI), $150, and $140 provide distant but significant support, indicating long-term protective positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-11.3M

DEX: +73.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$165 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,602)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net short gamma. A move ±2% from $203 (~$199-$207) will force dealers to sell into weakness and buy into strength, accelerating trends. The ~$165 gamma flip is far below, confirming the negative gamma regime extends across a wide range.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 61.8% — Extremely high standalone vol. Implies rich premium, favoring sellers on range-bound plays.

Term structure: Steeply inverted: 2-day IV 61.8% >> 10-day 54.0%. Massive kink at the 4/2 weekly expiry, pricing in pin/event risk. Hump at May expirations (~59%) ahead of 5/5 earnings.

Skew: Near-term (4/2) IV is ~8 vol points richer than 4/10. Supports selling 4/2 premium against longer-dated longs (e.g., calendar spreads).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$58.8M bullish; P/C Vol 0.60, P/C OI 1.12.

Directional prints: $212.5C 4/2 vol 22,072 vs OI 5,730 (3.9x) — likely bought calls for immediate upside. $207.5P 4/2 vol 8,645 vs OI 1,010 (8.6x) — could be sold puts for premium or protective buys; sold interpretation aligns with bullish flow.

Unusual: $150P 5/8 vol 5,212 vs OI 133 (39x) at IV 71.4% — massive, fresh OTM put purchase for tail hedge or speculative downside.

Risks & Catalysts

!Negative GEX acceleration: A break of the $202-$205 pin could lead to a fast, amplified move.

!IV Crush post-4/2: 61.8% weekly IV will collapse, punishing long premium holders in that expiry.

!Earnings Volatility: 5/5 earnings creates a volatility hump in May; near-term trades must navigate this.

!Macro/Sector Drag: High IV suggests stock-specific stress; broad market weakness could exacerbate selling.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and falling MP trend are headwinds. Better to finance via premium.
Short Stock	Moderate	N/A	Aligns with GEX/MP trend, but fierce call buying provides strong counter-trend rallies.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $210C 4/17 or $215C 4/24.	Capped upside; stock decline is primary risk.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate	Sell $195P 4/17 or $195/$185 put spread 4/17.	Negative GEX increases assignment risk on a breakdown.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid near-term (4/2) due to IV crush. Consider $210C 4/17 if bullish.	Buying high IV with negative gamma is poor odds.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $200P / Sell $185P 4/17 or 4/24.	Time decay in high IV; pin holds through 4/2.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Weak	e.g., $190P/$185P x $215C/$220C 4/17.	GEX negative (trending regime) and VIX contextually high makes range breaks more likely.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate	Sell $205C 4/2 (IV 61.8%), Buy $210C 4/17 (IV 54.1%). Directional: Bullish Diagonal.	Pin at $205 hurts short call; manage before 4/2 expiry.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $180C Jan 2027, sell $210-$220C against it monthly (e.g., $215C 4/24).	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated (~56%).

Top Plays

Bullish Call Calendar Spread

Sell $205 Call 4/2, Buy $210 Call 4/17.

Capitalizes on the steep IV inversion (61.8% vs 54.1%) and the pin at $205. The short leg harvests rich weekly premium that will decay rapidly, while the long leg maintains bullish exposure for a post-pin drift toward higher max pain. Best expression of the 'pin now, drift later' view.

Debit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: Debit Paid

BE: Variable (calendar)

Mgmt: Close short leg before 4/2 expiry if pin breaks. Target 50% profit on short leg decay; roll long leg if thesis changes.

Traders who believe the pin holds through Wednesday but want bullish exposure for April.

Bear Put Spread (30-45 DTE)

Buy $200 Put, Sell $185 Put, 4/24 expiry.

Aligns with the multi-week, negative GEX, falling MP trend thesis. Uses elevated IV to buy a spread with defined risk. The 4/24 expiry avoids the immediate pin noise and provides time for the bearish drift to develop toward the $190-$195 range. Better than a naked put due to defined risk in a high-vol name.

Debit: $5.50-$6.50

Max loss: Debit Paid

BE: $193.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit. Exit early if spot reclaims $210 (resistance break).

Directional bears seeking defined risk, avoiding the negative theta of a naked long put.

Covered Call (Thesis Overlay)

Own AMD shares, Sell $215 Call 4/24.

Generates premium in a high-IV environment while providing a partial hedge against a bearish drift. The $215 strike is above near-term resistance and the call OI wall, offering a high probability of keeping shares. This is a yield-enhancement play for shareholders who are neutral-to-bearish but don't want to sell.

Credit: $4.00-$5.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price minus credit

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit

Mgmt: Roll up and out if spot approaches $215. Consider closing if spot breaks below $195.

Existing shareholders looking to generate income and reduce cost basis amid choppy, high-vol price action.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks and closes below $202 (below near-term MP) → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy $200P / Sell $185P 4/24.

IFSpot rallies to $210 and 4/2 IV remains >55% → Sell a Call Credit Spread: $215/$220C 4/10, targeting resistance wall.

Exit Triggers

EXITVIX drops below 20 and AMD IV < 50% → Exit all short premium positions (e.g., covered calls) due to reduced edge.

EXITSpot closes above $220 (breaks major OI wall) → Exit all bearish positions (e.g., bear put spreads), reassess regime.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A near-term pin at $202-$205 within a multi-week negative gamma, bearish drift regime. Favor strategies that harvest high near-term IV or position for a gradual move lower. Top plays: 1) Bullish calendar (exploits IV inversion), 2) Bear put spread (directional, multi-week), 3) Covered call (income for shareholders). Invalidation of bearish drift: a sustained break above $220.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.