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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $668.00EOD only
Max Pain
$555.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.75
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-113.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.01
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
AMAT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMAT earnings 48 days out; high IV, mixed flow but pinning gamma. 100% beat rate historically. Unusual put activity at deep OTM strikes suggests hedging.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Call OI wall $680-$800 vs put floor $430; net premium $83M; put/call volume ratio 1.24.
🔴Deep OTM put buying with high IV
🟢Call OI wall $680-$800 provides resistance

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-13 (48 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$52.95 (8.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$78.32 (12.5%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$96.75 (15.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango with elevated short-term IV

Crush estimate: 30-40% post-earnings

Skew: Put skew elevated at deep OTM strikes due to hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical beats but move magnitude not provided

Directional bias: Bullish given 100% beat rate

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $573.89/$679.79
2Max pain pins: $580 (2026-06-26); $550 (2026-07-02); $540 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Deep OTM put buying in 2026-07-02 $260 and $270 with high IV

Hedging or bearish positioning

Large call volume at $850 in 2026-07-17

Bullish speculation far OTM

Strategies

IV Crush Strangle
Sell 2026-08-21 $610.00 put + sell $640.00 call
Credit: $128.59-$157.16
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $157.16
BE: 452.84 / 797.16
Trigger: Monitor delta; adjust if spot exceeds strike range.
High IV and 30-40% crush; liquidity pass ensures fills.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call to collect premium, betting on mean reversion post-earnings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Bullish Calendar
Sell 2026-07-31 $620.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $620.00 call
Debit: $15.26-$18.65
Max loss: $18.65
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll if spot moves below short strike. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Contango and 100% beat rate favor calendar; liquidity fail risks execution.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later call to profit from time decay and contango.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Elevated put skew suggests hedging demand
!Spot above max pain but below call wall
!Earnings 48 days out, time decay may accelerate

What to Watch

?Max pain pinning near $580
?Break of $650 resistance or $580 support
?Unusual put activity persistence
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.