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AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $668.00EOD only
Max Pain
$555.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.75
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-113.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.01
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
AMAT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMAT 100% beat rate with ~49 days to earnings. High IV environment; pinning gamma near $555; heavy call flow into $700/$780. Spot ~$667 (above MP).

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Massive call volume skew upside at $700 and $780; floor at $590 puts.
📈Call flow bullish
⚠️Put lottery active
🔍Beat rate 100% but premium rich

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-13 (49 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$13.75 (2.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$61.88 (9.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$85.52 (12.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango into earnings; near-term IV ~65%, long-dated up to 237%. Theta decay significant pre-earnings.

Crush estimate: Expected ~30-40% IV crush post-earnings.

Skew: Far OTM puts extreme vol; call skew active up to $780.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available due to distant event date.

Directional bias: Bullish based on call flow and pinning gamma.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $654.25/$681.75; 1w $606.12/$729.88
2Max pain pins: $555 (2026-06-26); $545 (2026-07-02); $530 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buys at $700 and $780 strikes

Bullish bias and upside speculation

Lottery put buys at $150 and $230

Tail hedging or speculative cheap protection

Strategies

Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-17 $680.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $710.00 call
Debit: $19.46-$23.79
Max loss: $23.79
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor spot; adjust if IV shrinks pre-earnings.
Captures steep contango (30% IV skew) and bullish bias from heavy call buying, with defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy longer-term call to benefit from IV decay and upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-08-21 $600.00/$500.00 put wing and $840.00/$930.00 call wing
Credit: $39.17-$47.88
Max loss: $52.12
Max gain: $47.88
BE: 552.12 / 887.88
Trigger: Take profit at 50% premium; stop loss at 2x credit.
Benefits from high IV crush (implied move 5%) with defined risk, exploiting inflated premiums.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call spreads to collect premium.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $710.00 put + buy $710.00 call
Debit: $158.69-$193.96
Max loss: $193.96
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 516.04 / 903.96
High IV and bullish bias suggest potential large move; straddle profits from any direction
Outperforms: Buy straddle to capture large earnings move
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Significant IV crush post-earnings.
!Earnings miss risk despite 100% beat rate.
!Time decay erodes option value pre-earnings.
!Possible gamma flip if spot moves away from MP.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction at $680-$700 resistance.
?Any changes in open interest at key strikes.
?Theta decay acceleration as earnings approach.
?Pre-earnings guidance or sector news.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.