thetaOwl
HomeOptionsAMATReports

AMAT

Applied Materials, Inc.Close $585.88EOD only
Max Pain
$550.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$43.77
7.5% from close
Price Gap
-35.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
3.0/10
Downside lean
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
AMAT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

AMAT earnings near-term; 100% beat rate; mixed flow: bullish call buying at $620, bearish deep OTM puts; gamma pinning near $555; spot above gamma flip at $430.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: High IV and unusual put activity suggest hedging caution; call buying at $620 indicates upside bets.
📊Beat rate 100% (5/5) - consistent EPS surprises.
⚠️Deep OTM puts with IV>190% - hedging or speculation?
📈Large call buy at $620 - bullish momentum.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$430.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,684 (27.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-13 (50 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$37.57 (6.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (8d): ±$60.43 (10.3%)
  • 2026-07-10 (16d): ±$78.60 (13.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep; deep OTM puts with IV>190%; near-term IV elevated.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings crush ~50% pre-event IV; current IV elevated.

Skew: Extreme put skew; deep OTM puts expensive.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; 100% beat rate last 5 quarters.

Directional bias: Bullish based on consistent beats.

Key Levels

1$430.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $551.39/$626.54; 1w $528.54/$649.39
3Max pain pins: $555 (2026-06-26); $540 (2026-07-02); $530 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Large call buy at $620 6/26 (4119 vol vs 471 OI).

Bullish bet expecting move above $620 by week's end.

Multiple deep OTM put buys (e.g., $275, $270, $150).

Bearish hedging or speculation; likely hedging large long positions.

Strategies

Short Strangle AMAT
Sell 2026-07-17 $510.00 put + sell $710.00 call
Credit: $24.70-$30.20
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $30.20
BE: 479.80 / 740.20
Trigger: Monitor gamma risk; exit if IV contracts or price nears strikes.
High IV and consistent beats; captures time decay before earnings with good liquidity.
Outperforms: Sell $510 put and $710 call, betting AMAT stays within range.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor AMAT
Sell 2026-06-26 $562.50/$537.50 put wing and $615.00/$640.00 call wing
Credit: $8.93-$10.92
Max loss: $14.08
Max gain: $10.92
BE: 551.58 / 625.92
Trigger: Manage if spot approaches wings; consider closing early. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Wide spread (73%).
100% beat rate suggests range-bound move; high IV boosts credit.
Outperforms: Sell $562.50/$537.50 put wing and $615/$640 call wing; limited risk.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pinning may keep spot near $555; call wall at $650-$800 caps upside; put floor at $300-$430 limits downside; VIX at 19 indicates elevated volatility.

What to Watch

?Max pain: $555 (6/26), $540 (7/2), $530 (7/10). EM guardrails: 2d $551-$627. Unusual $620 call OI change. Deep OTM put activity for potential hedging unwinds.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.