thetaOwl

AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $290.55EOD only
Max Pain
$305.00
Next expiry Jun 10, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.02
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+14.45
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
46
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.71
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 9, 2026 close
AAPL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

51d to earnings; 100% beat streak; bullish flow with $295c sweep and $287.5p hedge

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20
Most important: Max pain $305; gamma flip $240; VIX 20
📊100% beat rate over 5 quarters supports bullish bias
⚠️QQQ weakness and VIX spike warrant caution
📌Gamma pinning near $305 for weekly expiration

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$240.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,788 (17.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (51 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-10 (1d): ±$4.02 (1.4%)
  • 2026-06-12 (3d): ±$6.81 (2.3%)
  • 2026-06-15 (6d): ±$8.20 (2.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango near-term, flatter forward

Crush estimate: Minimal now; event crush ~30-40% in 51 days

Skew: Put skew elevated on risk-off; calls bid on trend

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A but 100% beat rate implies upside bias

Directional bias: Bullish

Key Levels

1$240.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $286.53/$294.57; 1w $282.35/$298.75
3Max pain pins: $305 (2026-06-10); $305 (2026-06-12); $310 (2026-06-15)

Flow Highlights

$295 call volume 433x OI (61k vs 141)

Bullish speculation or delta hedge for pinning

$287.5 put volume 244x OI (54k vs 224)

Hedging of downside support break

$300 call open interest 1087 with 68k volume

Key resistance; selling likely caps upside

Strategies

Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-08-21 $300.00/$310.00 call spread
Debit: $3.22-$3.93
Max loss: $3.93
Max gain: $6.07
BE: $303.93
Trigger: Exit if stock breaks below invalidation $279.35 or after earnings
100% beat streak and bullish flow; limited risk upside play
Outperforms: Captures potential earnings upside while capping risk
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $285.00/$280.00 put wing and $305.00/$310.00 call wing
Credit: $2.48-$3.03
Max loss: $1.97
Max gain: $3.03
BE: 281.97 / 308.03
Earnings event likely contained; max pain and neutral flow support range-bound move; defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell premium ahead of earnings via iron condor to capture IV crush within expected range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $270.00 put + sell $310.00 call
Credit: $4.80-$5.87
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.87
BE: 264.13 / 315.87
Contango supports short vol; earnings catalysts often revert; undefined tails but low probability.
Outperforms: Sell OTM strangle pre-earnings to collect elevated premium on low expected move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!QQQ -1.15% drag and VIX 20 increase downside risk
!Gamma flip at $240 could accelerate selloff if broken
!Max pain $305 may cap near-term upside

What to Watch

?$305 max pain for 6/10 expiry
?SPY/QQQ correlation for direction
?Open interest at $300 call for resistance
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.