Z
Zillow Group, Inc.Close $36.47EOD onlyMax Pain
$47.50
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.50
12.3% from close
Price Gap
+11.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
0.59
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot
This page reflects Z options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
Z Theta Report
Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026
Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.
Theta Verdict
Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Small
Primary: Sell cash-secured puts near OI support, targeting 30-45 DTE.
Invalidation: Close below $40.00 (below nearest OI support and expected move).
Confidence:
3.5 / 10
base 2; +1 high IV; +1 pinning regime; +0.5 spot below max pain; -1 low liquidity; -1 wide spreads
IV Environment
IV Regime
Very High
IV vs VIX
IV 71% — Extremely elevated. No VIX comparison provided, but IV >70% is in the top percentile for most equities.
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Humped at May (66.5%), dips in June/Sept (~63%), spikes again in March 2027 (66.2%).
💰IV >70% provides rich premium for sellers
⚠️High IV implies high perceived risk and potential for large moves
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: Spot $41.86 is 7.0% below nearest max pain ($45 for 4/17).
GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$488K — mean-reverting pressure).
OI concentrations: Major OI: $45 Put (4,155), $42.50 Put (1,752), $50 Call (3,239), $70/$80 Calls (3-5K each). Distant $92.50 Call (10,121) is an outlier.
Verdict: Favorable for credit sellers. Spot below max pain and positive GEX create a magnetic pull toward $45, offering a buffer for put sellers. The large, distant call OI may cap explosive upside.
Premium Opportunities
#1
cash-secured put
Sell $40.00 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (49 DTE)
High IV provides excellent premium. Strike is below the nearest OI support ($42.50) and outside the 21-day expected move ($36.97). The 49 DTE is in the sweet spot for theta decay. Positive GEX and spot below max pain provide a tailwind.
Credit: $2.50-$3.00
Max loss: $3700.00
BE: $37.50
Mgmt: Assume wide bid-ask (~$0.50). Target 50% profit. Roll down/out if price breaches $40.50. Be prepared to take assignment below $37.50 breakeven.
#2
put credit spread
Sell $42.50 / Buy $40.00 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (49 DTE)
Defined-risk alternative to CSP. Collects premium while selling near the $42.50 OI support level. High IV benefits short put. Positive GEX supports a pin near current levels.
Credit: $0.90-$1.20
Max loss: $1.60
BE: $41.60
Mgmt: Assume wide bid-ask (~$0.30). Close at 65% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $41.00. Do not roll — manage as a defined-risk unit.
#3
covered call (if long stock)
Sell $45.00 Call, exp 2026-04-17 (21 DTE) against existing shares.
Spot is well below the $45 strike (max pain for 4/17). High IV yields strong call premium. The strike aligns with a major OI put wall, increasing the chance of resistance and shares not being called away.
Credit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: Unlimited (capped by stock sale at $45)
BE: Stock breakeven rises by credit received.
Mgmt: Assume wide bid-ask (~$0.40). Close at 80% profit if reached quickly. Roll up and out if stock approaches $44.50. Be willing to let shares be called at $45.
#4
iron condor (illustrative - low liquidity)
Sell $45 Call / Buy $50 Call & Sell $40 Put / Buy $37.50 Put, exp 2026-05-15 (49 DTE)
Illustrative only. Attempts to capitalize on high IV and pinning between the $45 put wall and $50 call OI. Wide wings ($37.50/$50) account for high expected move (±$8.28).
Credit: $1.80-$2.40
Max loss: $0.80
BE: 38.20 to 46.80
Mgmt: WARNING: Liquidity is poor. Bid-ask spreads will be very wide (>$0.50 per leg), making entry/exit difficult. Only consider if you can get a fill near mid. Close at 50% profit. Exit one side if spot breaches a short strike.
Risk Alerts
!**Low Liquidity / Wide Spreads:** With only 38 active strikes and 96K total OI, bid-ask spreads are likely punitive. All credit estimates are theoretical; assume fills will be worse.
!**High Implied Volatility:** IV >70% signals high uncertainty. While great for premium, it implies the underlying is unstable and prone to large gaps.
!**Distant Max Pain Extremes:** Max pain drops to $25 by March 2027, suggesting some market participants see potential for a significant decline over the long term.
!**Large, Distant Call OI:** The $92.50 Call has over 10K OI. This could represent a long-dated bullish bet or a hedge, but it's an unusual concentration far from spot.
!**Negative Net Premium Flow:** Net premium of -$7.7M indicates more money was spent buying options than selling them last period, a potential contrarian signal for premium sellers.
!**Data Confidence Constraint:** The analysis is based on a thin options chain. Strategies requiring multiple legs (condors, calendars) may not be practically executable.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.
What the reports do
Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.
How traders use them
Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.
What to remember
These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.
If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.