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Z

Zillow Group, Inc.Close $36.47EOD only

Max Pain

$47.50

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.50

12.3% from close

Price Gap

+11.03

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.59

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects Z options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

Z Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a weak upward pull. Confidence: 4/10. Spot ($41.86) is 7% below the nearest max pain ($45), creating a weak pinning magnet. Positive GEX suggests mean-reversion, but net negative premium flow and mixed signals create a low-conviction environment.

Confidence:

4 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict; -1 spot 7.0% from MP. Low data quality caps confidence at 6.

Supports: GEX +$488K (pinning), P/C OI 0.47 (call-heavy positioning), term structure hump (event pricing).
Conflicts: Net premium -$7.7M (bearish), P/C Vol 1.03 (balanced), spot far from MP.

⚠️Thin OI chain — max pain gravity weaker than typical.

📉Net premium flow -$7.7M suggests institutional selling pressure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 70.8% — extremely high vol. Selling premium has strong edge on volatility alone, but tail risk is elevated.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$488K — positive but small magnitude. Supports a weak mean-reverting/pinning effect near-term.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium bearish (-$7.7M) but OI heavily call-skewed (P/C OI 0.47).

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($41.86) is below nearest MP ($45) — creates a weak upward magnet for the April expiry.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends downward from $45 to $25 over 8 expirations, indicating a structural bearish drift in positioning. GEX sign is stable positive, and flow regime is consistent across expirations (net premium negative).

Price Range Forecast

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $45 (2026-04-17); $52 (2026-05-15); $70 (2026-06-18)

EM guardrails:

Support:

Resistance: $92.50 · $80.00 · $80.00

Structural: **Call OI wall $50-$92** is extremely distant and likely legacy/structural, capping any explosive rally. No near-term put OI support identified below $42.50.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+488K

DEX: +2.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX positive but low magnitude. Dealer hedging is a weak stabilizing force. A move ±2% likely doesn't trigger a significant gamma flip due to thin strikes.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 70.8% — extremely elevated. Implies high fear/uncertainty; selling premium is attractive from a vol perspective.

Term structure: **Humped** — peaks at May (66.5%) > June (62.7%) > April (59.0%). Suggests an event or uncertainty priced for May. December (52.0%) is relatively cheap.

Skew: **May vs December ~14.5 vol-pt differential** — supports a calendar spread selling May (high IV) vs buying Dec (lower IV) for a bearish/neutral view.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$7.7M bearish; P/C Vol 1.03 (balanced), P/C OI 0.47 (call-heavy).

Directional prints: **$80 Put** saw $2.6M net premium (likely sold puts for income or bought for far OTM protection). **$95 Call 8/21** vol 127 vs OI 46 (2.8x) at IV 89.7% — could be a long-dated lottery ticket or a volatility sale.

Unusual: Massive net negative premium concentrated in $80-$92.5 puts — consistent with either **selling far OTM put spreads** (bullish income) or **buying far OTM put protection** (bearish hedge). Given net premium negative, buying protection is more consistent.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Low liquidity / OI** — GEX and MP signals are less reliable; wider spreads.

!**Extreme IV (70.8%)** — tail risk of vol crush on any stability, hurting long premium.

!**No identified near-term support** — puts are sparse below $42.50, risk of gap down.

!**May IV hump** — unknown catalyst could drive realized volatility.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell $38/$36P x $46/$48C 5/15 (49 DTE). Use EM bounds.	GEX positive but weak; VIX equivalent high. Thin OI increases pin risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $40/$38 put spread 5/15 (49 DTE). Below spot, above EM lower bound.	Break below $38. Max pain drift lower over time.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $45C 4/17 (21 DTE) against it.	Stock drifts lower, missing upside to $45 pin.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $40P / Sell $38P 5/15 (49 DTE).	High IV makes long premium expensive; needs decisive breakdown.
Long calls	Weak	Not recommended. High IV, weak spot momentum, distant call walls.	Vol crush and time decay in high IV environment.
Calendar / Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $45C 5/15 (IV 66.5%), Buy $45C 12/18 (IV 52.0%). Bearish/neutral, capitalizing on IV differential.	Spot rallies past $45, hurting short near-dated call.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy $30C Jan 2027, Sell $45C against it monthly. Leverages long-dated low-ish vol (59.3%) vs selling higher near-term vol.	Capital intensive; stock stagnates or falls.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Direct short or via put buying. Aligns with net flow but fights weak GEX pin.	Weak pin to $45 causes a squeeze against the position.

Top Plays

Bearish Put Calendar (Reverse)

Sell $45 Call 5/15 (~$1.10 est), Buy $45 Call 12/18 (~$3.20 est). Net debit ~$2.10.

Capitalizes on the steep IV term structure (sell high IV May, buy lower IV Dec) for a bearish/neutral view. Edge comes from selling overpriced near-term vol against longer-dated, cheaper vol. Better than a naked short call due to defined risk and long vol hedge.

Debit: $2.00-$2.20

Max loss: $2.10

BE: Complex; ideal path is spot below $45 at May expiry with stable/below Dec IV.

Mgmt: Manage short leg at 21 DTE; roll if challenged. Close if May IV collapses >10 pts.

Traders expecting a resolution of the May uncertainty without a major rally, or looking for a theta/vega positive spread in high IV.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $40 Put / Buy $38 Put 5/15 (49 DTE). Credit ~$0.45-$0.55.

Benefits from high IV (premium selling) and aligns with multi-week bearish drift in max pain. Strike below spot provides a buffer, and below the 1-week EM low ($36.97). Defined risk is crucial in thin, high-vol names.

Credit: $0.45-$0.55

Max loss: $1.55

BE: $39.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $39.

Traders with a neutral-to-bearish bias seeking high-yield, defined-risk income. Better than a CSP due to lower capital requirement and risk defined to $38.

Covered Call (Stock Holder)

If long stock, sell the $45 Call 4/17 (21 DTE) for ~$0.70-$0.85 est.

Generates income against a weak long position, targeting the $45 max pain pin. The 30+ DTE alternative (selling May $45) collects more premium but ties up capital longer during a bearish drift. This weekly overlay is tactical, capturing the pin event without over-committing.

Credit: $0.70-$0.85

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price (less premium).

BE: Stock purchase price minus premium.

Mgmt: Let call expire worthless if OTM. Be prepared to roll up and out if challenged, or allow assignment at $45.

Existing shareholders looking to reduce cost basis or generate yield in a stagnant/bouncing market.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $44.50 (approaching April max pain) → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $45C 5/15, Buy $45C 12/18.

IFSpot breaks below $40.50 on closing basis → Enter bear put spread: Buy $40P / Sell $38P 5/15.

Exit Triggers

EXITMay ATM IV drops below 55% (vol crush) → Close reverse calendar spread for profit.

EXITSpot closes above $47.50 (breaks above 1-week EM high) → Exit all bearish positions (put spreads, reverse calendars).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-vol, low-conviction pin with a bearish drift. Favor selling premium (puts/put spreads) for income, or calendars to exploit the steep term structure. Invalidation for bearish plays is a close above $47.50. Top Plays: 1) Reverse calendar for vol arb, 2) Put spread for defined-risk income, 3) Covered call for shareholders targeting the $45 pin.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.