thetaOwl
HomeOptionsZReports

Z

Zillow Group, Inc.Close $36.47EOD only
Max Pain
$47.50
Next expiry Jun 18, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.50
12.3% from close
Price Gap
+11.03
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
0.59
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects Z options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
Z Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings inferred for the 4/17 expiration cycle (21 days out). IV is extremely elevated at 71%, creating a high-probability IV crush setup. The stock has a strong history of beating earnings and moving less than its elevated expected move, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 clear IV term structure kink; +0 strong historical data; -0 no explicit date
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at the 4/17 expiration (59% IV) vs. later dates (66%+), strongly implying an earnings event. Historical under-move vs. expected move is a key edge.
⚠️Earnings date inferred from IV term structure kink at 4/17. No explicit date provided.
📊Historical data shows 100% EPS beat rate and consistent under-move vs. expected move.
💰Massive OTM put flow ($80-$95) is a structural hedge, not a near-term earnings signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 71%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$0.5M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-7.7M, P/C 1.03)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 7.0% (spot $41.86 vs MP $45)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-17 (inferred) (21 days)inferred from IV term structure kink

Expected moves:

  • 4/17 (21d): ±$4.89 (11.7%) [$36.97 - $46.76]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/17 (59.0% IV) vs. 5/15 (66.5%) and 6/18 (62.7%). IV peaks at 71% currently, indicating extreme earnings premium.

Crush estimate: ~12-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~45-50% range.

Skew: Flow data shows massive net put premium at high strikes ($80-$95), suggesting large institutional hedging or bearish bets far OTM.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Actual 5.7% vs. Avg EM 9.4% — consistently under-moves by ~40%.

Directional bias: 3/4 gap up post-earnings

Key Levels

1$45.00 (Max Pain 4/17)
2$36.97 (EM low)
3$46.76 (EM high)
4$50.00 (Call OI wall)
5$42.50 (Put OI support)

Flow Highlights

Massive net put premium at $80, $87.50, $92.50 strikes (millions $). OI is high at $92.50C (10,121) and $80C (5,102).

Likely large-scale, long-dated protective put buying or structured hedging far OTM, not a near-term directional signal. Creates a long volatility footprint.

Unusual $95 Call activity for 8/21: Vol 127 vs OI 46, IV 89.7%.

Speculative long-dated upside lottery ticket buying, betting on a significant recovery.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $37/$36 Put Spread x Sell $47/$48 Call Spread, 4/17 Exp.
Credit: $0.85-$1.05
Max loss: $0.95
Max gain: $1.00
BE: $36.15 / $47.85
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before inferred earnings date (mid-April).
Capitalizes on extreme IV (71%) and high probability of IV crush. Structure is calibrated just inside the expected move, aligning with historical tendency to under-move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 11.7% expected move ($36.97-$46.76). Historical under-move supports this.
Underperforms: Stock gaps >50% beyond expected move boundaries (below $35.50 or above $48.50).
Long Put Calendar Spread (Volatility Play)
Buy 5/15 $42 Put, Sell 4/17 $42 Put.
Debit: $-1.10-$-1.30
Max loss: $1.30
Max gain: Theoretical (short IV crush on front, long back)
BE: Complex; profit from IV crush differential and theta decay of short leg.
Trigger: Enter now or on any IV spike into earnings.
Exploits the steep IV term structure kink (59% front vs 66.5% next). Earnings IV crush should disproportionately affect the short 4/17 put.
Outperforms: IV crushes sharply post-earnings (target ~12 pts) and stock stays near $42.
Underperforms: Stock makes a large directional move, or IV does not drop as expected.
Directional Bullish Put Spread
Buy $40 Put, Sell $37 Put, 4/17 Exp.
Debit: $-1.40-$-1.60
Max loss: $1.60
Max gain: $1.40
BE: $38.60
Trigger: If bullish on earnings beat and guidance, enter before announcement.
Leverages historical upward bias (75% gap up rate) and high IV. Defined risk, and cheaper than a call spread due to put skew. Spot is below max pain, suggesting potential pinning upward.
Outperforms: Stock rises post-earnings (historical bias up 3/4). Benefits from IV crush on a defined-risk long delta position.
Underperforms: Stock gaps down below $37.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 11.7% expected move is large. While history favors under-moves, a guidance shock could break the pattern.
!IV Crush Risk: Magnitude is key. If IV remains elevated due to macro volatility (VIX), crush plays may underperform.
!Liquidity Risk: Volume is low (5,917 total) vs. OI, indicating potential wide spreads. Size positions accordingly.
!Pin Risk: Spot ($41.86) is significantly below nearest max pain ($45), creating a strong gravitational pull upward into 4/17 expiry.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into mid-April for the 4/17 expiration.
?Any official earnings date announcement to confirm the 4/17 inference.
?Spot price action relative to the $45 max pain level.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.