Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 5/1, with IV sharply elevated in the 4/2 expiration (50.4%). The stock historically beats EPS and under-moves its expected move. Best strategy is a short premium play via an iron condor, capitalizing on likely IV crush and historical under-movement. Key risk is a large gap driven by oil price volatility or guidance change.
base 5; +1 clear IV kink; +0.5 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 elevated vs typical EM; -0.5 no explicit earnings date
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at 4/2 (50.4% vs 37.7% for 4/10), strongly implying an earnings event is priced for that week. The 5/1 date is an estimate, but the options market is pricing for early April.
⚠️Earnings date is estimated (5/1), but IV kink at 4/02 strongly suggests the market expects earnings the week of 3/31. Trade around the 4/02 expiration.
📊100% EPS beat rate over last 4 quarters. Strong historical tendency to exceed estimates.
🎯Key levels from flow: $160 (put support), $180 (call resistance). Max pain for nearby expiries is rising ($160 -> $167.5).
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
Normal (IV 39%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$103.0M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$17.9M, P/C 0.84)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 6.0% (spot $169.66 vs MP $160)
Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Gamma flip estimated at ~$125 based on put OI concentration. Spot is well above, reducing near-term pinning pressure.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-01 (31 days)estimated (IV kink suggests early April)
Expected moves:
- 4/02 (2d): ±$9.38 (5.5%)
- 4/10 (10d): ±$10.92 (6.4%)
- 4/17 (17d): ±$11.73 (6.9%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/02 (50.4% IV) vs 4/10 (37.7%). Steep drop post-4/02, then gradual decline.
Crush estimate: ~13-15 vol pts, back to ~37% (4/10 level)
Skew: Unusual activity shows heavy volume in 4/02 $160P and $162.5C, suggesting traders hedging both sides of the expected move.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for exact move, but EPS consistently beats.
Directional bias: Insufficient gap data, but consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias.
Key Levels
1$125 gamma flip/put OI wall
2$160 max pain (3/27) & heavy put OI
3$180 call OI wall
4EM (4/02): $160 - $180
Flow Highlights
Massive 4/02 $160 Put volume: 10,689 vol vs 2,205 OI (4.8x).
Strong hedging or speculative bet for a move below $160 post-event.
Large 4/02 $157.5 Put sweep: 5,819 vol vs 818 OI (7.1x).
Follows the $160P flow, defining a bearish target zone.
Notable 4/02 $162.5 Call volume: 2,878 vol vs 490 OI (5.9x).
Balancing upside bet, targeting a move above recent max pain ($167.5).
Strategies
Iron Condor (Post-Earnings IV Crush)
Sell $160/$155 Put x $180/$185 Call 4/10
Trigger: Enter after earnings announcement, once IV has crushed in the 4/10 expiration.
Capitalizes on IV crush from ~50% to ~38%. Strikes placed just outside the 4/02 expected move bounds, providing a buffer. Historical EPS beats support a stable-to-up reaction.
Outperforms: Stock consolidates within $160-$180 range post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside $155-$185, exceeding the 4/10 expected move.
Strangle (Pre-Earnings Directional Bet)
Buy $160 Put / Buy $180 Call 4/02
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before suspected earnings (week of 3/31).
High IV (50.4%) is expensive, but unusual flow at $160P and $180C aligns with this structure. Bets on a larger-than-expected move, potentially driven by oil prices or guidance.
Outperforms: Stock moves >±$12 (exceeds the 4/02 EM by >25%).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $170, IV crushes sharply post-event.
Put Credit Spread (Bullish Bias)
Sell $160 Put / Buy $155 Put 4/02
Trigger: Enter before earnings, targeting the $160 support level and historical beat bias.
Capitalizes on high put skew and heavy OI at $160. High IV provides attractive credit. Consistent EPS beats and spot above max pain support a floor near $160.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $160 post-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $155.
Risk Assessment
!Gap Risk: 5.5% EM is elevated. XOM is sensitive to oil prices and macro guidance, which could drive a larger gap.
!IV Crush: Estimated 13-15 vol point drop. Long premium strategies need a significant price move to overcome crush.
!Liquidity: Excellent liquidity with 1.18M OI. Tight spreads expected.
!Sizing: Size short premium strategies conservatively given energy sector volatility. The gamma flip at $125 is far away, limiting tail risk from dealer hedging.
What to Watch
?IV in the 4/02 expiration for further spikes into the event.
?Oil price (WTI) trajectory, a key driver for XOM.
?Any unusual flow in longer-dated options for clues on guidance expectations.