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XOM

Exxon Mobil CorporationClose $162.55EOD only

Max Pain

$152.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.29

2.6% from close

Price Gap

-10.05

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XOM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

XOM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a gravitational pull toward lower max pain levels ($160-$162.50). Confidence: 7/10. Spot is 6% above the nearest max pain, creating a strong pinning force downward, supported by massive positive GEX and mixed but net-bearish flow. The primary conflict is the structural call OI wall at $180, which caps immediate upside.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned (pinning + net premium); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.0% from MP (creates strong mean-reversion pressure).

Supports: GEX +$103M (strong pinning), spot above MP (bearish drift), P/C OI 0.66 (structural put bias).
Conflicts: P/C volume 0.84 shows near-term put buying, but net premium is positive $17.9M from deep ITM calls (likely hedging/positioning, not bullish bets).

📌Strong pinning regime with spot $169.66 vs MP $160-$162.50.

🧱$180 call OI wall (40k+) is a formidable ceiling.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 38.8% is elevated, providing edge to premium sellers, especially with GEX pinning.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$103M is massively positive, creating strong mean-reversion pressure and a pinning effect.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed but net premium positive; P/C OI 0.66 shows structural put bias, while volume ratio 0.84 indicates recent put buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot is above MP, creating a gravitational pull lower toward $160-$162.50 over the next week.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent lower bias ($160-$168) across the next 4 expirations, GEX sign is strongly positive and stable, and flow regime is consistent. The pinning dynamic is not just a one-week event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$160.29$179.04

Pinning dominates; a break above $179.04 is unlikely due to gamma and OI walls.

Next 1 week

$158.74$180.59

Max pain convergence and GEX pinning should pull spot lower.

Next 2 weeks

$157.93$181.39

Pin may relax post-4/10 expiry, but structural put OI at $140 provides a floor.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $160 (2026-03-27); $168 (2026-04-02); $162 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $160.29/$179.04; 1w $158.74/$180.59

Support: $125.00 · $140.00

Resistance: $180.00 · $180.00 · $200.00

Gamma flip: ~$125.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,580

Structural: Call OI wall $180-$200 caps rallies; put floor $125-$140 provides distant but significant structural support. The $165 strike is a near-term magnet with high call OI.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+103.0M

DEX: +48.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$125 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,580)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip is far below at ~$125, indicating dealers are long gamma near spot, adding to pinning stability. A move ±2% from here ($166-$173) does not change the positive GEX regime, keeping dealer hedging stabilizing.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 38.8% is high (no VIX given, but 38.8% is rich for XOM), favoring premium sellers.

Term structure: Steeply inverted: 2-day IV 50.4% plunges to 33.6% by 4/17. Major kink at the 4/2 expiry, then normalizes.

Skew: ~17 vol-point differential between 4/2 and 4/17 expiries — strong edge for calendar spreads selling the front week.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$17.9M bullish, but driven by deep ITM calls ($90, $65 strikes) — likely hedging/rolls, not directional speculation.

Directional prints: $160P 4/2 vol 10,689 vs OI 2,205 (4.8x) & $157.50P 4/2 vol 5,819 vs OI 818 (7.1x) — could be bought puts for protection or sold puts for premium; the high volume/low OI and pinning regime favor sold puts. $162.50C 4/2 vol 2,878 vs OI 490 (5.9x) — likely bought calls as a pin play.

Unusual: $195C 10/16 vol 459 vs OI 136 (3.4x) at 31.1% IV — potential long-dated upside speculation, but OI is low.

Risks & Catalysts

!Inverted term structure collapse after 4/2 expiry — rapid vol crush on short-dated options.

!Break above $180 call OI wall could trigger a short squeeze, though GEX pinning makes this low probability.

!Macro/oil price shock overriding technical pinning dynamics.

!Earnings on 5/1 (31 DTE) will eventually dominate the vol landscape; positioning for a vol crush post-event.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Strong	Sell $160/$155 put spread & $180/$185 call spread, exp 4/10 or 4/17. (Bounds: lower EM & OI wall)	Break below $160 or above $180; manage at 21 DTE.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $160 put or $160/$155 put spread, exp 4/10 or 4/17. (Target: max pain & EM support)	Accelerated drop below $155.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $175 or $180 call, exp 4/17. (Target: OI resistance)	Missing out on a breakout above sold strike.
Calendar/diagonal spread	Strong	Sell $170 call 4/2 (50.4% IV), buy $175 call 4/17 (33.6% IV) — reverse calendar for bearish/delta-neutral vol harvest.	Spot rallies sharply, pin fails.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $165 put / sell $160 put, exp 4/10. (Directional bet on pin down)	Pinning holds range; time decay in high IV.
Long calls	Weak	Not favored. Upside capped by OI wall and pinning regime.	Time decay and vol crush in rich front-month IV.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $140-150 LEAPS call (2027), sell $175-180 calls against it monthly. (Capitalizes on structural range)	Extended downdraft below LEAPS strike.
Short stock	Moderate	Direct short with stop above $180. (Bet on pin down to MP)	Positive GEX causes violent squeezes within range.
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Entry on a dip near $160, target $175. (Mean reversion within pin)	Pin breaks lower.

Top Plays

Reverse Call Calendar (Vol Harvest)

Sell $170 Call 4/2, Buy $175 Call 4/17.

Capitalizes on the steep 17 vol-point inversion by selling rich front-week vol and buying cheaper back-month. Benefits from pinning (spot stays below $170) and vol crush post-4/2.

Credit: $0.60-$0.80

Max loss: $4.40

BE: $170.60

Mgmt: Close for 80% of max credit if 4/2 IV collapses; exit if spot > $172.50.

Traders comfortable with pinning thesis and negative delta; defined risk vol trade.

Put Spread (Premium Collection)

Sell $160/$155 Put Spread, exp 4/17.

Defined-risk play on the pin holding and spot drifting to max pain ($160). High IV provides attractive credit, and the 30 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis, allowing time for pin to work.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $158.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-60% of max credit; roll or exit if spot closes below $158.

Defined-risk traders bullish on the pin holding; better than a weekly due to time buffer.

Covered Call (Income/Defense)

Own XOM, Sell $180 Call, exp 4/17.

Generates income against existing shares while setting a sell target at the major OI resistance wall. The multi-week duration provides more premium than a weekly and aligns with the expectation of range-bound action below $180.

Credit: $2.00-$2.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Consider rolling up and out if spot approaches $178; let shares be called away above $180.

Shareholders looking to add yield and define an exit; capitalizes on high IV and capped upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rises to $172.50 (tests upper range). → Initiate reverse call calendar: Sell $172.5 Call 4/2, Buy $177.5 Call 4/17.

IFSpot dips to $162.50 (approaches MP). → Sell $160/$155 put spread, exp 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $158 (breaks lower EM bound). → Exit all short put positions and put spreads.

EXITVIX term structure flattens (inversion disappears). → Exit calendar spread positions; edge in vol harvest is gone.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Strong GEX pinning pulls spot down toward $160-$162.50 max pain over the next 2-3 weeks. Invalidation is a close above $180. The regime favors selling premium (especially front-week) and defined-risk range trades. Top plays: 1) Reverse calendar for vol harvest (best for volatility traders), 2) Put spread for premium collection (best for defined-risk), 3) Covered call for shareholders (best for income).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.