base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (1d 18.31%) due to pinning; medium-term around 18%; overall contango.
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+114.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$48.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 229,457 (10.6% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain $53 for 06/30, 07/02, 07/10; put OI wall at $48 (229k contracts)
#1Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-31 $53.00/$52.50 put spread
Sell $53/$52.50 put spread to capture elevated IV premium.
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if spot breaches $53. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (109%).; long_put: Wide spread (86%).
#2Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-31 $53.00/$52.50 put wing and $55.00/$55.50 call wing
Sell $53/$52.50 put and $55/$55.50 call wings for IV premium.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit or if spot nears wings. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (109%).; long_put: Wide spread (86%).; short_call: Wide spread (87%).; long_call: Wide spread (113%).
!Gamma pin risk at $53 expiry on 06/30, 07/02, 07/10
!Spot above max pain; watch for pinning action
!Elevated near-term IV may compress post-expiry
!Early assignment risk on short put options