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XLF

Financial Select Sector SPDRClose $54.23EOD only
Max Pain
$54.00
Next expiry Oct 9, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.49
0.9% from close
Price Gap
-0.23
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
12
Low premium
P/C OI
1.25
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Oct 8, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects XLF options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 8, 2026 close
XLF Theta Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 26, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness5 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Observe
Invalidation: Break of 2d guardrails $50.99/$52.70
Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.7% from MP; +1 VIX 17

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 32% vs VIX 17, elevated premium
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Front steep put skew (83% on 3-day) likely dividend; back months elevated

⚠️3-day put IV 83% - dividend related, avoid short puts
⚠️Negative GEX -257.7M adds gamma risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-257.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$51.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 229,086 (1.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Puts heavy at $51, call wall $55-$60

Verdict: Moderate pin risk - spot near max pain $52, put OI concentrated

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-06-26 $58.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $53.00 call
Sell near-term elevated IV call, buy longer-term call to capture volatility premium.
Debit: $1.11-$1.36
Max loss: $1.36
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor term structure; exit if IV flattens. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Volume below 5.; long_call: Wide spread (145%).

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma increases hedging risk
!3-day put IV spiked to 83% - likely dividend event
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.